Sunday, April 22, 2018

The death of the Barron's newspaper version coming with the news two weeks ago that they stopped putting the earnings in the stock listings in the paper. What's the point? Alan Abelson must be rolling over in his grave. Also I have a value stock pick for you, GOOGL

Dow Jones Industrial Average 24462.94   (UP) for the Week ending 04/20/2018 
S & P 500 Index 2670.14  

Hello. Two weeks ago I received my Barron's magazine paper version on a Saturday 
morning  and suddenly discovered that there are no longer listed "Last years earnings"
, "This years earnings" and "next years earnings".  (The last copy to have it was the 
April 9th copy).  This  action renders this once handy tool as kind of useless now. 
(Tits on a bull came to mind).  I am calculatingly that it is the beginning of the end 
of one of the decent newspaper magazines you could read and use as an investor. Oh,
 well I guess the individual stock picker will just need to figure it out. Can't we just
 have a Saturday afternoon without turning on a computer or cell phone? 

The magazine still does have some good articles though. This week they pointed out 
General Mills (Symbol GIS, $43.41 )was a bargain right 
now, down 27% for the year and a new 52 week low , and is paying a 4.52% dividend
right now. The company has moved into some new areas with the purchase of 
Blue Buffalo Pet foods  and is actually looking to have a pretty good year.  The 
consumer Staples stocks  in general got beat up this week.    J M Smucker 
Co. (Symbol SJM, $114.92) and a PE of 6.43 and a good dividend 
also looks like a good value play here and SJM has less debt than GIS.

After some weeks of studying though, the real value stock  that I want to discuss with
 you is the stock of Alphabet (Symbol GOOGL, $1077.31)
 I had picked up some shares when it was at $1040.00 this week , which seems to be a 
good buy in point for the stock.  Google reports earnings this week and could get roughed
up a bit according to the CNBC option guys and this could create an opportunity to pick 
up  5 or 10 shares or more.

Warren Buffett for years liked the dynamics of the newspaper business and their
 steady cash flow that they got from advertising revenues.  Buffett in the past has owned
 The Washington Post and the Media General Newspapers and liked many newspapers
 that were dominant in smaller markets.  Now Google gets all those advertising revenues
 and also works with and teaches their customers the most effective way to advertise. 

Then you add to that revenue the Alphabet Cloud Businesses, The AI artificial
intelligence business, The Linux operating system Google interface for all the 
cell phones accept Apple,  $100 Billion dollars in cash, All the mobile patents 
they got when they purchase the Motorola cell phone business, YouTube, 
Waymo automated driverless car business, etc, etc. etc., and you have a 
virtual fireworks of value to be thrown off into stock gains. You just need to buy
the shares.

 "The best value stock I could find GOOGL"
I will also leave you with a good book for value investors to read by Guy Spier. He is 
good freinds with value investor Mohnish Pabrai and tells many good ideas for the
discipline of being a value investor. (Also about many bad behaviors to avoid. Oddly
he says that I should not talk about the stocks I own, but this would be counter-productive 
to writing a Value Stock investing blog so I will need to bend that one rule. I think he will
let me slide on this one.  I bought this book at Barnes and Noble bookstores. I still support
brick and mortar.  Call me old fashion. I like to read Barron's in the paper version best also.

Many happy financial returns, 


Sunday, February 11, 2018

"A Tale of Two Cities. While Philadelphia PA was basking in the glow of a 2018 NFL Superbowl Victory, New York City and Wall Street were on a wild ride downward. A week where the Dow Jones had swung wildly and ended down 10%."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 24,190.90  (Down, Way Down!) By most accounts a 10% correction.
S & P 500 2619.55 

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way—in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only". Charles Dickens "A Tale of Two Cities"

While Philadelphia PA. was winning their first NFL Superbowl and riding high for the week, with the Championship Parade down Broad Street to the Philadelphia Museum of Art ,(where the Rocky statue stands), on Thursday, it was a glorious week. The first NFL world championship in football for Philadelphia since 1960. Happiness and tears abounded. The team simply had fun.

 (Picture photo credit N.Y. Daily News)
But, up in New York City and Wall Street it was entirely different story. The VIX exploded up and down and traveled over 22,000 points in one week as leveraged VIX derivative funds created havoc in the markets with 50 times amplified volatility. On January 26th, 2018 the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 26,616.71 and there were whispers of Dow 30,000. On Friday, 02-09-2018 the Dow closed at 24,190.9, 2,427 points lower in a heart-pounding roller coaster trading week. It was the best of times and it was the worst of times. There were tears, but not of happiness

So what is investor to do for the balance of 2018?  My suggestion is to buy bulletproof stocks. Ones that have proved their merit and are tested over time.

One idea is to buy the stock of Texas Instruments (Symbol TXN, $100.49). TXN for 14 years in a row have increased their dividend. They produced free cash flow in 2016 of $4.1 Billion dollars. 

Earnings for the company were $3.61 per share in the trailing 12 months and will be $4.99 per share this year.  Earnings per share for 2019 are projected at $5.67 per share. A forward PE of 17.72.  4th quarter Quarter over quarter earnings were up 28.4%.

Texas Instruments had sales of $14.95 Billion last year that produced $3.65 Billion dollars in income. It had gross margins of 64.3% and a Return on Equity of 39.30%.

TI presently sports a Current Ratio of 3.90 to 1 with very little debt. More insiders are buying the stock than selling. 

The target price on the stock is $120.58
and TI currently sports a 2.47% Dividend yield. I think this could be a very nice total return on your investment in 2018.

The stock gained 33.45% last year and Performance YTD this year is (-3.78%).

Analysts having them at 6 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, and 17 Hold. I think this "Continuous Compounder" as one analyst called it, is just the ticket to be a steady performer in your portfolio.

Meanwhile in other news in this crazy week, Earthling resident genius Elon Musk sent a Tesla car to MARS! (pictured, no photoshop!)

Oh and this week, we have the always joyful PyeongChang 2018 XXIII Olympic Winter Games.

I think the best of times has a big and hopeful lead over the worst of times! 

"All things are possible. You just solve one problem at a time". ( a quote from that movie, "The Martian". Great and hopeful movie. 

All the best to you and your family and country,


Monday, January 1, 2018

Happy New Year 2018. Here are my Value stock picks for the new year. I will evaluate results this time at 1 year and 2 year intervals because sometimes good things in Value investing take time.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 24,719.22  Year End at 12/31/2017
S & P 500 Average 2673.61

2017 was a great year for both Value and Growth investing. You could have just bought Apple or Microsoft and been up 40-50% but who would have thought to do just that?

This year I decided to go with 12 picks to help you build your assets. These are all Value stock picks specifically this year. I think in the long term these with give you the best results with the least risk to your capital.

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”  Sir John Templeton

So in no particular order, here are my picks for 2018:

1.  Alaska Airlines (Symbol ALK)
2.  J.P Morgan Chase (symbol JPM)
3.  Andeavor (symbol ANDV)
4.   InTEST Corp.  ( Symbol INTT)
5.   Express Scripts (Symbol ESRX)
6.   Gilead Sciences (Symbol GILD)
7.   Mastercard Inc. (Symbol MA)
8.   ManuLife Financial Corp. (Symbol MFC)
9.   Square (Symbol SQ)
10.  Discovery Communications (Symbol DISCA)
11.  Jazz Pharmaceutical (Symbol JAZZ)
12.  Brown Forman Group (Symbol BF.B or BF/B) 

This is a mix of varying ideas developed from concepts on Value Investing with consideration to PEG, ROE and intrinsic value of the company . Some Value investors would say these picks are not ugly enough or distressed enough to make a real killing, but for my readers this is an appropriate list that will also preserve capital. (***email me or comment if you want some ugly names and I will be glad to oblige).

We did have some losses in 2017,    but they were not financial.......

 Tom Petty R.I.P. (Rock in Peace)

Have a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year, 2018,


Friday, December 22, 2017

The recap of the 2017 stock picks from the beginning of the year. Equal weighting of these 11 stocks would have brought you in a 56.82% gain (12/20 cutoff date). Also a historic milepost - Blog # 300

Dow Jones Industrial Average 24,754.06 (U) Week Ending 12/22/2017
S & P 500 Index - 2683.34 (UP)

"If you don't lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones!" 

Joel Greenblatt, Gotham Capital

Well it's that time of year again , when we review the blog stock picks from the beginning of the year to see how my prognostications ended up. It was a fabulous year with  8 of my 11 picks being on the ++ plus side. There was one big loser and 5 big winners.

 If you purchased equal parts of each of the eleven stocks I listed, your gains for the year, not including some good dividends, would have been 56.82%. I can live with that!

Here are the results:  

Lending Tree (symbol TREE)                     Up  233.05%  YTD
Align Technologies (symbol ALGN)           Up 143.06% YTD
Activision Blizzard (symbol ATVI)             Up 78.29% YTD
Lennar Corporation (symbol LEN              Up 45.73% YTD
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (symbol SWKS)   Up 30.50% YTD

Amgen Corp. (symbol AMGN)                  Up 21.13% YTD
The Blackstone Group LP (symbol BX)   Up 18.35% YTD
 Goodyear Tire Company (symbol GT)     Up 5.02% YTD

and the losers......

CVS Health Corporation  (symbol CVS)  Down (6.78)% YTD
INSYS Therapeutics (symbol INSY)          Down (21.74)% YTD
Under Armour Inc. (symbol UAA)             Down (47.78)% YTD

It has been a year of great learning and studying of the wide spectrum of ideas on Value investing from the many great minds that express their ideas about it. The Google forums with Value investors on YouTube have been particularly helpful. And I would be remiss to not mention the book that is a guiding light to me,  John Heins and Whitney Tilson's, "The Art of Value Investing", which I keep on my bed side table like a bible. Incredible thoughts on the subject.

I am a much better investor now then I was just one year ago. I wish that I had more time to write blogs weekly, but Value investing ideas take time and patience, so it is not really necessary to write weekly. We are blessed to have such wonderful resources available. This is Blog #300 for me since 2009, so it has been a learning and growing experience. I hope that it has been helpful to you.

Next blog will be my Value stock picks for 2018

Until then have a happy and healthy holiday season and a great new year.

Freewilly  - Blog # 300 - 12/22/2017


Saturday, November 18, 2017

"Special Edition Blog: How to prosper with a few stocks on the coattails of the BitCoin currency and blockchain transactions trading and their meteoric rise in value"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 23,358.24 (Down) Week ending 11/17/2017
S & P 500 = 2578.85

BitCoin. The word conjures up all kinds of thoughts. The California Gold Rush of 1849 is what comes to my mind. There is even Bitcoin "Mining", (like during the Gold Rush), which according to www, is the following: 

"Bitcoin mining is the process of adding transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions or blockchain. This ledger of past transactions is called the block chain as it is a chain of blocks. The block chain serves to confirm transactions to the rest of the network as having taken place.
Bitcoin nodes use the block chain to distinguish legitimate Bitcoin transactions from attempts to re-spend coins that have already been spent elsewhere"

Here is what I posted on Twitter 4 days ago: "Bitcoin = Speculation. Options and Derivatives trading on BitCoin = Insanity squared. There is a place for crypto currency, but not at these prices."  I do not think you should invest in BitCoin no more than I think a retail investor should do any currency trading. ( Because you will get your head handed to you!!). 

1 Bitcoin currently ,(11/18/2017),  is valued at $7699.98 US Dollars if you want to keep score going into the future.

  However, I think there is a few stocks that you can invest in to take advantage of this "crypto" decentralized digital currency phenomenon.

First, Mastercard Incorporated,(Symbol MA, $149.02), has filed for 4 Patents on BlockChain Money Based transfer solutions. I believe that the pairing of this trusted franchise name combined with the rocket fuel of block chain crypto currency transactions can be a huge winner. 

Mastercard is already up year to date 44.33%  without these systems even being added yet, so a very successful and profitable franchise.

Second, Square Inc. (Symbol SQ, $44.26), is a financial services, merchant services aggregator and mobile payment company based in San Francisco, California. Square helps millions of sellers run their business - from secure credit card processing to point of sale solutions. They also make loans to small and micro businesses. Square Inc. that currently did $2 Billion dollars in sales has a stock price that is up 224.14% year to date.

Square has introduced the option to buy and sell Bitcoin through its Square Cash app.

 Credit Suisse research analysts Paul Condra and Mrinalini Bhutoria reported the following: (Source: The article), 

"Impact of this latest move is uncertain, but could give SQ [Square Inc] early mover advantage: While the function currently appears to only permit buying and selling of Bitcoin via an exchange with no ability to purchase other coins or to send coins directly to other Cash users, we believe it could place SQ in an early-mover position as a mainstream fin-tech company providing crypto-currency services," the report said. "SQ is also well positioned to enable crypto transactions at the physical point of sale." . 

They have a Neutral rating on the SQ stock currently and also stated that PayPal, (Symbol PYPL), is also well positioned to provide similar services.

I believe that although MA and SQ are up at high prices for the year, I think that you can purchase them here for a 2 to 5 year investment.

So if you don't want to be dealing with Millibit Coin or Satoshi, (fractions of Bitcoins), then I would suggest just settling in with one or both of these stocks.

Thank you for reading and Happy Thanksgiving to my USA readers. 

Sorry that I have not been able to blog on a weekly basis. Next blog, I will be back to my traditional Value Investing ideas.

Sincere regards,


Sunday, October 8, 2017

Where's the Beef? Finally a food or beverage stock that I can consider a value buy. Tyson Foods, Inc.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 22.773.67 (Up) Week ending 10-06-2017
S & P 500 2549.33

Greetings all. I have been searching for awhile for a Food and Beverage stock that I could buy at a reasonable price that was a good value. Nothing on the Beverage side, (maybe Molson Coors Brewing, symbol TAP,  being about the cheapest),  but I did come up with one on the Food side.  Tyson Foods, Inc. (Symbol TSN, $70.66) which I always thought of as a "Chicken" company, just knocked the ball out of the park with a big gain in "Beef" sales.  These two categories along with "Pork" and " Prepared Foods" make up the 4 divisions of Tyson Foods, Inc. 

Tyson sports a great Return on Equity of 18.10% and a nice low PEG Ratio of 1.16. The stock is 92.10 percent institutionally owned. 

On the earnings side they earned $4.75 per share in the trailing 12 months and are forecast to earn $5.52 per share for next year. That is a forward projected PE of 12.80.

The stock trades at a Price to Sales of 0.69 and a price to current book value of 2.56, very reasonable for a stock in this sector.

 The company employs 114,000 people worldwide so I like that. In the last 12 months there were 72 Insider buys to just 25 Sells. In 2016 the company generated $2.02 Billion in Free Cash Flow. 

Analyst are 8 Buy, 1 Overweight, and 5 Hold on the stock. Truth be told , I had actually picked up the stock at $66.00 and I am finally getting a chance to write about it. 

IBD Composite rating on the stock is 82, and the other rankings are 77 earnings, 70 RS rating and A sector and B+ Accumulation/Distribution.

Tyson owns many well known brands here as you can see above. The stock is up YTD 14.56% and it pays a 1.27% dividend, so a very nice total return so far with plenty of upside headroom for the stock to move.  I would put a target price on it of $95.00 and say you are good to buy it here or on a market dip. 

I hope that your month of October is going well so far.  Things are very well here in Pennsylvania, USA. 

Happy Columbus Day.

Have a great week and eat lots of "Beef" from Tyson Foods, Inc.


Monday, September 4, 2017

The whirlwind month of August is over and did not turn out so bad. There was a mention of 3% quarterly revised GDP, a good sign for the US economy. I put together a small watch list for September to keep an eye on going forward.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 21,987.56   (UP) Week ending 09/01/2017

S & P 500  2476.55

Greetings fellow value investors.  It has been a busy summer here in Oreland PA. Sorry I have been hiding out from you. 

 I like to buy things in pairs in my IRA account, so I picked up some shares in Jazz Pharmaceutical , ( Symbol JAZZ, $143.00),  to go along with my Gilead Sciences (symbol GILD, who bought Kite Pharmaceuticals and their Car T cancer technology). I have spoken about Gilead many times on my blog as an undervalued large-cap biotech company. I like JAZZ here, buying the shares under $145.  These two sit up there with my other top holdings Alaska Airlines, (ALK), and Cisco Systems, (CSCO), which I believe to both be under-valued,  based on future projections for the companies.  

Everything past this point are just on "Watch list" and are not recommendations.

Sometimes I am asked if there are any Chinese companies that I would invest in?  This is an ADR traded on the NASDAQ as Weibo Corp. ADR, (Symbol WB, $104.72). It is like Facebook for mainland Republic of China users for social media.  I have added it to my "watch list" at this time.

Here is a Wikepedia description about the company:

"Sina Weibo (NASDAQWB) is a Chinese microblogging (weibo) website. It is one of the most popular social media sites in China, in use by well over 30% of Internet users, with a market penetration similar to the United States' Twitter. It was launched by Sina Corporation on 14 August 2009, and as of December 2012 has 503 million registered users. By the third quarter of 2015, Sina Weibo has 222 million subscribers and 100 million daily users. About 100 million messages are posted each day on Sina Weibo.

In March 2014, Sina Corporation announced a spinoff of Weibo as a separate entity and filed an IPO under the symbol WB , (Weibo).  Sina carved-out part 11% of Weibo in the IPO, and Alibaba owned 32% post IPO.  The company began trading publicly on 17 April 2014.

As of June 2017, Sina Weibo has over 361 million monthly active users, with surging advertising sales and total earnings in the second-quarter of 2017."   Buying things in pairs,  this might be a good investment to pair up with an existing position in Facebook , (FB symbol). I have never owned a Chinese stock ADR and would consider this a somewhat speculative investment. 

Then I have a list of some value names of micro-cap companies with market capitalization of between 50 Million and $558 Million dollars. This is down in an area where there is not much analyst coverage and you have a better shot at finding some better values. Here are 4 of them to add to your "Watch List" :

Lakeland Industries, Inc. (Symbol LAKE, $13.70). A good balance sheet and a $109 million dollar market cap. $0.84 cents in earnings forecast for 2019. 

A couple of broadcast companies next. 
 Beasley Broadcast Group , Inc. (Symbol BBGI, $10.35 per share) with a market capitalization of $293 million. It has a PE currently of 4.7.  

Second, Hemisphere Media Group Inc. , (Symbol HMTV, $13.05 per share) which owns Spanish broadcasting stations in North and Latin America. It has a PEG ratio of 1.55 and market capitalization of $558 Million. Earnings of $0.45 cents per share. 

Plus one more, InTEST Corp.  (Symbol INTT, $7.60 per share) with earnings of $0.26 cents per share and a market capitalization of $80 Million.

Labor Day Monday here in the US today so we are off from work today. September is not usually a great month for the stock market averages, so it is a time mostly to study and look for opportunities.

Have a great, healthy and successful September,


Sunday, July 30, 2017

" Have been selling some positions into this rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I am keeping in mind Warren Buffett's first rule of investing, "Don't lose money". Peeled back some QCOM, UAA, and AET. Be cautious here"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  21,830.31 (UP) Week ending 07-28-2017
S & P 500 - 2472.10  (UP) 

What me worry? The President thinks he is in the fantasy football league and has to make two lineup moves every week. That following an ill-timed, illogical, and probably illegal executive order to discriminate against a class of people in the military based on gender.  Congress cannot agree on approving some sort of healthcare bill, while the present ACA health plan is losing coverage in various states and is increasing in premiums cost and deductibles. Will they ever be able to pass any new fiscal policy with tax repeals for people and business and possibly a repatriation bill to bring back money into the US to stimulate business?  Storm clouds on the horizon I say.

One place you can park some money while you wait for the storm to pass is Cisco Systems (Symbol CSCO, $31.52). Wall Street hates hardware companies because they are capital intensive and have inventories and also obsolescence of products.

Cisco though had revenues last year of $48.5 Billion dollars and had net income of 10 billion dollars. They have more cash on hand than allot of small countries with a bulging $68.5 Billion dollars. The company pays a nice 3.68% dividend payout which will help you to compound your money.

People forget that everything is moving to the cloud. Well much of that stored information is put onto Cisco Systems servers. They are the best. Not only that, at some point Cisco will also be the lead company for cyber and network security. The Cloud needs to be safe.

The company trades at PEG ratio of 1.55 and a Return on Equity of 15.60. It trades at a forward PE of 12.49 some is a pretty good value in a high priced market. Earnings for 2018 are projected at $2.45 per share.

The Current and Quick Ratio are both 3.5 to 1. Sales end up flat here year over year so that is why the stock has not taken off here and is only up 4.3 % this year. The stock has a target price of $36 so fairly low expectations. 

My thinking is if you are going to crank out $10 to 11 Billion dollars in net income every year and have a pot load of money to buy up other small companies, then you really cannot go wrong here.

I love my Apple TV box,  because I can watch cool stuff on Youtube and Netflix.  Here is a link to a great HBO Documentary special on that may be of interest to value investors or even anybody as a human interest story.  Warren is going to give all $100 Billion away to charities. He was inspired by his wife to do it.

HBO Documentary - Warren Buffett - well done HBO!

 Warren Buffett - Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. 
Be cautious and take some profits here and raise some cash for future bargains. 

Evaluate your non-performers and pair some of them down. Make better use of your precious funds.

Best Wishes - Freewilly. 

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

"As we make our way across the halfway mark of stock trading year 2017, it is time to take a look at a 3 companies who seem to be "printing money".

Dow Jones Industrial Average 21,322 (Down) Week ending 06/30/2017
S & P 500 Index 2421.50

In my continuing research of Value Investing,  I find that there are many different variations of strategy, practices, screening methods and channels of thought on the subject. Just yesterday I watched a Youtube video of Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital at a Google talk with yet another value plan. His strategy is to buy value stocks, (cheap, at a discount), that have consistent company yearly performance and to put an emphasis on eliminating risk and big losers,  to get an excellent, consistent overall return. His view is that the best returns come when you don't make any big mistakes. Sounds pretty easy right? 

The three stocks that I am presenting today are not traditional Value stocks and if anything most people would consider them Growth Stocks. In my mind because of their extraordinary strong balance sheets they are provided with a natural built in  "margin of safety".  So I find when they are discounted because of a sector rotation or because of some one off event that they are reasonable investment vehichles. The first one is Skyworks Solutions Inc. (Symbol SWKS, $95.34). SWKS has a Current Ratio of 8.6 to 1. The forward PE is 13.34 and next year they are expecting to have $7.19 in earnings per share. The company has no debt, (tough to go broke if you have no debt!), and a Return of Equity of 25.20% and a PEG Ratio of 1.31. If current earnings trends continue I can see this stock moving up to $125.00 price. It was one of my picks at the beginning of the 2017 blog year. It is rated in IDB as an 87 and "A".

Facebook on a Value stock list? (No I didn't have too many rum and cokes for the 4th of July.) Facebook (Symbol FB, $148.43) has a Current ratio of 12.60 to 1 and no company debt. ZERO. The stock because of some sector rotation is selling at a discounted forward PE of 25.16. Earnings quarter over quarter are up 74%. EPS this year are up 170%. Earnings for 2018 are projected at around $6.00 per share. The Return on Equity for the stock is 20.80% and the PEG Ratio is 1.49. Facebook is rated in IBD at 99 and "A" the highest rating. 

The definition of the word Juggernaut is:
  1. a massive inexorable force, campaign, movement, or object that crushes whatever is in its path. 
Yeah that about sums it up!  This Value investor picked up 25 shares of FB  for his IRA account. Suggest that you do the same.

Now let's go to the other extreme to a small cap stock. The Meet Group (Symbol MEET, $5.13) is an interesting stock to me. It has a Current and Quick Ratio of 7.80 to 1. This company in 2016 had revenues of $82.9 Million dollars which netted $44.4 million dollars of income.

The forward PE of the company is 7.85. Earnings per share for 2018 are looking like $.0.64 cents per share. Return of Equity is 24.30 and PEG ratio is 0.32.  Sales quarter over quarter are up 51.10 % and sales for the past 5 years are up 48%. The company has a current price to book of 1.28.  

This company seems to have a model that requires very little capital to be infused, so that many of the revenue dollars fall down to the bottom line. A very interesting young company that has 4 applications that you can access on your smart phone.

Enjoy your 4th of July in the USA and the Tour De France for the whole world. Sad day in Stage 4, with the crash of  the top sprinters Peter Sagan and Mark Cavendish together. Sagan is disqualified from the Tour and Cav is probably out with a shoulder injury. So much energy all careening towards the finishing line. Such great competitors!

 I salute all the riders in the 2017 Tour race. Congratulations to Arnaud Demare the French star rider winning the Stage 4.

All the best,  Freewilly.

Saturday, June 10, 2017

"This stock market in the USA reminds me of a stage in the Tour De France race. These 15 so called "FANG" hyper-growth stocks are the lead out group and I am waiting for the Peloton of Value stocks to pull them back in by the end of the race"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 21,271.97 (UP) Week ending 06-09-2017
S & P 500 Averages  2431.77 (UP)

One of the great joys of my summer season for the past few years has been watching the Tour De France - Cycling Race, now it it's 104th year. There are so many varied individual and team strategies going on all at the same time during the race, and it kind of reminds me of the stock market. Options, ETF's, Short-sellers, Sectors and Individual stocks all pulling in different directions on different news and with different motivations. 

The current US markets this year remind me a lot of a Tour stage race, with a small breakout group of sunshiny and much beloved growth stocks with even higher PE ratios running out to a big lead. These guys can do no wrong and everybody is piling on the bets.

It is my thinking though that just like in a stage race, this "peloton like" group of stocks following them, will in time,  pull them back in on total return %. There are many good value stocks that have not run up at all this year and some are even down a bit. In fact 60% of the S&P gain this year are created buy this "Nifty Fifty" like small group of front-leading stocks. 

So here is a few of the "Peloton" stocks that I like right now:

Devon Energy Corp. (Symbol DVN, $32.66), A shale oil driller.

Hudson Technologies Inc. (Symbol HDSN, $8.56),  in the refrigerants business.

TREX Co. Inc. (Symbol TREX,$65.47),  a manufacturer of wood alternative decking materials.

Synchrony Financial (Symbol SYF, $28.72), Consumer Financial services, credit card and payment solutions.

So let's watch this one play out. I would avoid those high flying stocks out front, and stick with the companies with the low PE's and a margin of safety.

Oh, and make sure to get ready for July 1st, 2017 for the real Tour De France which starts in Dusseldorf this year.

Have a good month of June.  

Sunday, May 21, 2017

It is hard as a Value investor to watch these wild moves in some of these Growth stocks. But one must stay the course and continue to look for compelling bargains. This week ALK fit the bill as wonderful Mid-Cap stock.

Dow Industrial Average 20,804.84  (Down) Week ending 05-19-2017
S & P 500 Index 2381.73  (Down)

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway bought up the stocks of many of the US airline carriers in late 2016, but they did not buy all of them. They like the 85% capacity utilization in the industry. It is a little difficult for competition to come in, because they are limited by the number of gates available at the various airports.

Alaska Air Group Inc. (Symbol ALK, $84.57) is one that they did not buy up. Analysts have a current target price on ALK of $110.00 per share. The stock has corrected a little bit here but has good numbers. PEG Ratio is 1.54. ROE is 25.50. (I saw ROE reported on IBD at 34.11%). The Price to Book Ratio is 3.46.

Alaska Airlines Group Inc., when it combined with Virgin Airlines, became the 5th largest US airline carrier and the premier USA west coast carrier known for its good customer service and low fairs.

ALK stock has been up 29.69% over one year (even with the recent correction). Earnings are year ago were $7.25 per share and this year is projected at $7.93 per share. 2018 Earnings are projected at $8.56 per share with a forward PE of 9.61. EPS for the last 5 years have been up an average of 31.5%.

ALK has a market capitalization of $10.45 Billion and had sales last year of $6.33 Billion. Sales quarter over quarter where up 29.80%. The IBD rating on the stock is 69 and B.  The company pays a dividend of 1.42% currently.

Alaska Airlines starting in 2018 is going to start 9 flights a day to a 2nd Airport in Seattle. 

  • "Alaska Airlines has been ranked #1 among the nine largest carriers in the United States by The Wall Street Journal for overall operational performance for three years in a row, while Virgin America has placed #2 in the same study for the past two years.
  • Virgin America had been voted “Best Domestic Airline” in both Travel + Leisure’s Annual World’s Best Awards and Conde Nast Traveler’s Readers’ Choice Awards for the past eight consecutive years.  
  • Alaska Airlines has been ranked “Highest in Customer Satisfaction Among Traditional Carriers” by J.D. Power for eight years running, and has been ranked #1 for on-time performance six years in a row by FlightStats."


I have just recently purchased this stock as a new addition to my IRA account and feel fully confident in the consistent growth and earnings of the company. 

Have a great, healthy, and peaceful weekend, wherever you are in the world.