Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog ® ™
Monday, January 2, 2023
Welcome 2023 stock markets - Looking for Value and Income in this recession looming environment
Saturday, March 5, 2022
Investing in value stocks in the face of a raging war of aggression, inflation, Fed rate hikes, and an energy supply dilemma
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
The results are in for my 2021 stock picks and they look pretty good. Crypto currencies were the shooting star for 2021, but there are other blogs out there to discuss that.
Sunday, March 7, 2021
Nvidia at $475 -$515 during the NASDAQ swoon is very interesting idea! Portfolio construction in a time of high valuations
Sunday, January 31, 2021
2021 Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog - Round Table - Value stock picks
Sunday, December 27, 2020
The results are in for the 2020 picks for the year. 12.14% return was the average without dividends added in. Good, but once again Growth beat Value in 2020
Saturday, November 21, 2020
2020 continues on, Covid is rampant everywhere, the US election is mostly decided and stocks, well, they keep moving up. What you need are some "teflon" stock ideas.
Dow Jones Industrial Average 29,263.28 (Down , but way up since my last post)
S & P 500 Index - 3557.54
So how do you function with long term investing during a full blown worldwide Covid virus pandemic and during a feverishly pitched, disputed election here in the United States? You need to calmly stand back from all the noise and kind of look at things from above and use the same guide and metrics you always have for buying good companies. Companies that are "Teflon" coated, so that turbulent market conditions seem to just slip off them.
Look for solid Return on Investment, Return of Equity, growth in earnings for next year, and very importantly little or no debt. Like Peter Lynch said, "I never met a company that went out of business that had no debt".
I have not been posting for awhile because of excessive speculation in many of the Covid "growth" stocks. You will not find stocks like Zoom, DocuSign or Teledocs here in my blog. I will not invest in "Castles in the Air" stocks. These "single tiered product" stocks can only lead to great future pain. The % percentages are not with you for stumbling upon an Amazon, Tesla, or Netflix. Those are the more rare exceptions.
I put together a list of 5 stocks, all of which I own in some capacity, that I think can bridge you over to the future fairly unscathed.
Quest Diagnostics, (Symbol DGX, $124.81)Testing, Testing and more testing. Earnings will stack up in 2021. Forward PE of 12.42. Return on Equity of 18.7%. Also pays a dividend.
Ever have the power go out at your home? With the climate conditions and old power grid infrastructure it is happening more and more often. Exploding earnings growth. Great ROE and ROI. Ultimately, they will go head to head with Tesla for the market of power backup and battery backup in homes and business.
Brick and mortar, web on line ordering, and adding Ulta Beauty boutique stores within their existing stores. I went in Target and this is where all the young people shop. Again, exploding earnings and sales growth. Great ROE and ROI. They can ship you your toilet paper and paper towels. They are making money.
Newmont Corporation , (Symbol NEM, $61.65)
With a possible 4 Trillion $$ in stimulus coming with the Democrats winning the election, this is your hedge against a devaluing dollar and future inflation. 40,000 ounces of gold in their inventory. This company makes money, pays a dividend, and is ESG friendly in their basic materials space. Forward PE of 13.60. Great Current Ratio and very little debt. Buy it.
McKesson Corporation, (Symbol MCK, $169.87)
A Return on Equity of 39.40%. These are the guys that were picked by the current US Government to distribute the Covid vaccine when released. A forward PE of 9.61 this company is gushing earnings. One skeleton in their closet is the Opioid lawsuit settlement with the other pharma distributors. But this will be settled out and paid over a number of years. But with $ 234 Billion in sales last year, it would take a very large iceberg to take this ship off course. 😊
"Finally he is getting something down on paper." |
Be very careful at your Thanksgiving gatherings. Was your hands and keep your mask on. It may seem silly, but you increase your odds of staying healthy. Also get your normal Flu shots from your doctor or pharmacy.
Thanks and Happy Holidays,
Freewilly
Sunday, June 21, 2020
Robinhood - He takes from the rich and gives to the poor, that is the principle anyway. Save a little on the side for Richard the LionHeart to rule the land fairly
...And so we enter the age of Robinhood. Swarms of new retail customers, both young and old, armed with their shiny new cell phones, loaded up with their new Robinhood stock trading application.
It has all gone swimmingly so far to begin with, with a high volatility upside time period and a move of 40%. You could buy pretty much any retail stock, regional bank, airline, cruise line, oil stock, casino stocks, industrial stocks, Boeing or some Fintech stocks and made an easy, easy gain. It made it look so easy.
Some people even used leverage on the application borrowing money and invested it for extra leverage. (The 4th deadly sin of investing, unless you are George Soros or Stanley Druckenmiller and you know what your are doing.)
But those fun and easy times are over now. Like in the movie Robinhood with Errol Flynn, King John is trying to lure you to come into the castle for the big target shooting competition and bring your bank account, and it turns out once again that it is a trap!
Head for Sherwood Forest! You could lose your head, or even worse yet your new found money and more.
So if you decide to come to this competition against the Pro traders and their computer algorithms, you better be armed with the proper bow and arrows.
I would recommend to find a simple stock screen program and search for stocks that have a Current Ratio of at least 3 to 1. I would also screen those same companies and pick/screen through ones that have a Return on Equity of at least 15% or higher.
This should keep you out of the "big trouble", working from this screened list. Like Peter Lynch said, " No company ever went broke that didn't have any debt".
.... And, if you are going to fall in love with a stock, like Robinhood with Maid Marion, decide ahead of time at what gain % you want to sell and take a profit. Also if you have made a mistake, that is OK, just acknowledge it as soon as possible, sell the stock, and move on. The best of investors has made mistakes and learned from it. Call it the cost of your stock trading education.
So young Will Scarlet, don't try to steal any mutton from a sword wielding Friar Tuck! If you purchase any stock options, know that you could lose all your money. (All , every cent).
Just stay within or develop a trading discipline. Mine is Value Investing, but there are many successful traders using all different trading techniques and disciplines, including being long and short the stock market at the same time. Find what works best for you.
Best of luck! Keep your eyes open and learn what your personal risk tolerance is for trading stocks.
Best Regards,
Freewilly 06/21/2020
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Lauren Templeton - "Trouble is Opportunity" Ideas from her Great Uncle Sir John Templeton, Value investor
Happy Easter and Passover,
Freewilly
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Posting a blog for Low-Income investors to get started investing. It is from a request on Facebook to Consuelo Mack's Wealthtrack page post to invite a guess to speak about low-income investing
S&P 500 2520.00
The Wilson's, my dad, vintage 1919-1920 |
I have a little first hand experience with low income. My father, who was a bus driver, died when I was 5. I remember doing my mom's taxes back in the late 60's and her income came to $8000.00 a year plus Social Security for me. I had never realized that we were so poor. I never felt like it though, because my mom Marie, was the best deployer of capital that I have ever known.
I posted a picture of my grandmother Wilson with my Dad and his brother and sisters back from 1920. I guess that most folks were low income during that time period.
This week on Wealthtrack, Consuelo Mack invited 3rd generation investor Christopher Davis from the Davis Funds. Wealth Track - Consuelo Mack - Christopher Davis interview click here .
Consuelo Mack |
So here we go with some low priced bank stocks.
KeyCorp (symbol KEY) buy 5 shares @ 11.20 = $56.00 total.
Currently pays a 6.61% dividend
Citizens Financial Group (Symbol CFG) buy 5 shares @19.96 = $99.80 total. Currently pays a 7.82% dividend
Regions Financial - (Symbol RF) buy 5 shares @ 9.67 = $48.35 total. Currently pays a 6.41 % dividend
Bank of America (Symbol BAC) which was the first bank to let women open accounts!, Buy 5 shares @ $21.60 = $108.00 total
So those are the banking stock ideas to get started. If you want a couple different sector stocks to be diversified to balance out your risk, here are two that I like.
ADT Inc. (Symbol ADT) Buy 10 shares @ $4.71 = $47.10 . It pays a 2.97% dividend
Good Year Tire and Rubber Company (Symbol GT) Buy 10 shares @ $6.32 = $63.20. It currently pays a 10.13% dividend.
Understand that these are turbulent times in the stock market so these prices may move up or down a bit.
You can open up an account with one of the on-line investing companies. Some offer to give you the first few trades or all the trades free. You will have to do some homework on this.
Picture of my hero Lou Rukeyser from "Wall Street Week". The reason I started this blog. |
Have a wonderful Sunday,
Freewilly
Saturday, March 21, 2020
The Perfect Storm - Covid 19 - Saudi-Russia oil dispute - Treasury bills - 10Year. - dropping below 1 percent. Just when you thought that you saw everything, now this rolls out
S & P 500 2304.92
"The Perfect Storm" |
Still in the short term, I got crushed just like everybody else. As devastating as it all has been, it has been crazy interesting watching the rotations and movements on a daily basis.
New great deals popping up on a hourly basis with big flashing lights saying ,"buy me Now", then poof disappearing from sight. Extraordinary!
Well right now , just like in the Perfect Storm movie, we are in a little calm spot in the eye of the storm. Maybe half-way, a little more, towards a market bottom. But those 80 foot waves will be back again on Monday, and this thing is all heading down further. Some will lose there nerve and capitulate and sell. That will not be me or any of my Freewilly Stockpicker Blog followers. We will be be diving for pearls during the storm.
Here is what to look for as they pop up at great prices:
Nvidia (Symbol NVDA) is like the Hope diamond of stocks. If you can grab 25, 50, 75 shares go ahead and do it as it dives down.
Facebook, (Symbol FB). They are stepping in as "lender of last resort" for the small businesses that are their customers. Friggin brilliant! a Value stock here with lots of cash and growth on the horizon and Instagram. Damn right!
EOG Resources (Symbol EOG) is the "Apple" of the oil industry with a pristine balance sheet. They can make money with $30.00 WTI oil. They just cut back on $2 Billion of CapEx spending. Hunker down to own this great company in the oil patch.
Verizon Communications Inc. (Symbol VZ) - A low cost 5G play focused on wireless and has a rock solid dividend of 4.75%. Use this stock as a bond yield proxy. Super safe.
Oshkosh Corporation (Symbol OSK) These guys have government contracts to build the replacement vehicle for the US Army and Marines that is replacing the Hummer. It is down 40% from its highs. Consider this one "Shelter from the Storm".
Kinder Morgan Inc. (Symbol KMI) They threw the baby out with the bath water. Rock solid company, good balance sheet and lots of insider buying.
There are many more names that will flash up this week. Think long term, Quality, good Return on equity. The world is not going to end this week and you need to eventually retire , right?
"Sammy Davis Jr. Jr. - (the dog in) - Everything is Illuminated" |
Grab the Tums, Rolaids, Mylanta and Coca Cola syrup. Fasten your seat belt, lock your doors, roll up the sidewalks, it is going to be a wild ride. You will be fine. Don't get scared and please do wash your hands and stay clear of this dreadful virus.
We are all in this together,
Peace
Freewilly