"Looking to capitalize on the next Black Swan event. Where and when may the next one pop up. I think Real Estate"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12217.56 (Down) Week ending 12-30-2011 - End of Year

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12359.92 (UP) Week ending 01-06-2012

 
The Black Swan Theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that "The event" is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1.The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology

2.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)

3.The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
(Source Wikepedia)

The largest black swan economic event of the last 5 years was certainly the collapse of the Mortgage Backed Securities market worldwide and the downturn in values in the US real estate market. Trillions of dollars in investor equity being loss. My thinking now is that the Real Estate market has over corrected.  This will create at some point a boomerang effect and possibly a "Black Swan" event going rapidly in the other direction to return to the mean.

So I am looking this week at some of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT'S) that you may be able to take advantage of this bounce back in prices. I am not drifting to far a field from some familiar names because they are the entities with the largest capital and purchasing capabilities to take advantage of this turn when it happens.

EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (Symbol EQR, $55.69) of Chicago , IL. the developer of apartment properties would be the first one to look at. EQR operates at a Net profit margin of 52.20% , not to shabby. It has a 4.08% dividend yield and the stock has profited from people not being able to afford houses and moving into apartments instead. EQR has produced a 3 year return
 on the stock price of 152. 3%.


Simon Property Group Inc. (Symbol SPG, $126.82 ) would be the next REIT to look at. It has been extremely profitable and very successful even without a black swan event. Lets say to the tune of a 3 year return of   215.2%.

SL Green Realty Corp. (Symbol SLG, $69.78) are the "Kings of New York City" real estate guys and gals. Own SLG and you can be like Donald Trump, a real estate magnate. Net Profit margins for the company are 54.90% and the 3 year Total return on the stock is 354.5% . Think about a Black Swan event happening and them really doing good! Throw in 5 year sales growth of 14.68 %.

You probably drive by one of these on your way to work everyday and never notice it,  PUBLIC STORAGE (Symbol PSA, $132.28) .  You have to empty out a bunch of houses and the stuff has to go somewhere. People are hoarders, they never throw anything away due to the fear of lost value.
5 year earnings growth here at Public Storage is 40.49%. Net profit margins run 45.2%. ( By the way credit all these stats the fine work of the people at Smartmoney.com , great job by them). Total 3 year return of 128.2%. So somebody has been making money in the real estate downturn.

  Of course you cannot have real estate without mortgages. (unless you happen to be really rich). With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
sorting out their current quagmire, the logical place to look for investment in this area is Annaly Capital Management Inc. (Symbol NLY, $16.06).  49.10% Net Profit Margins here at NLY.  5 year sales growth of 14.76%.  This one has a 14.20% dividend yield to keep your interest in case you get bored. A three year total return of 56.5%.  Remember that before the "big fallout" that this was a very profitable business for a long time.

If you think of other Black Swan economic events for 2012 please comment on my blog and share them with everyone and we can try to flush out investment ideas for it.

Thank you and happy hunting,

Freewilly 

"12 for Twenty~2012~Twelve. What stocks will give you the best total return next year based on fundamentals combined with dividends"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,294 (Down) Week ended 12-23-2011

Well it's time to look at the calendar again and see what our fortunes bring for next year. I looked over last years Top 10 list predictions to get an idea of how it had turned out and it was quite topsy turvy. It was my first list I had done formally and I had Mastercard up 73.22% along side Arch Coal which was down -56.98%. Alexion Pharmaceutical up 70.19% next to Skyworks Solutions which was down -42.92%. It was my rookie list so a little fine tuning was in order.

So here is the Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog - Twelve for 2012 list in no particular order of preference. The focus here is capital gain based on fundamentals combined with, in some but not all cases, a dividend for a combined total return. This years portfolio is designed for a 20 - 25% annual return with a margin of safety for risk.

Cummins, Inc. (NYSE:CMI)

Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) (NYSE:ALU)

The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM)

PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PPG)

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)

CSX Corp (NYSE:CSX)

HMS Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:HMSY)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE:SWK)

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (NYSE:FCX)

Seadrill, Ltd. (NYSE:SDRL)

PotashCorp (NYSE:POT)

lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ:LULU)

2012 is a year that is supposed to have many prophetic events to arrive according to the Mayan calender to the right and others. 100 years ago, 1912, was a pretty crazy year too, with many historic occurrences including the calamitous sinking of the Titanic. An event that had been deemed impossible to happen.

The point is, anything can and will happen in any given year.  So expect it, and do not be feared by it. Life will carry on and another year of experiences will engage you and test you. This list of stocks should keep you in good shape for awhile, at least on your financial side. (My wish for 2012 is that the housing market finally recovers and turns around, but I am not seeing it yet.)

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,

Freewilly

"Spice up your holiday season with a few shares of HMS Holding (Symbol HMSY)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,184 (UP) Week ending 12-09-2011
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,866 (Down) Week ending 12-16-2011 

Well I finally threw in the towel on trying to catch up to the weeks.
So this week you get a twofer, since I am too busy to catch up. So I posted both "end of weeks" together on one post, a first. I hope it is not confusing. So I will offer up a growth stock and a fundamentals stock. The one thing that they both have in common is that their stocks have both had "3 for 1" stock splits this year. The first is the stock of the health cost containment company  HMS Holdings Corp. ( Symbol, HMSY, $31.15). This would be your growth stock with a five year earnings growth rate of  45.31%.  Put that together with a 5 year sales growth rate of 31.38%  and you have quite a dynamic company and a great opportunity for investment. The company has offered up a one year total return of 44.3% and a three year total return  of 196.5%. We can certainly live with those returns in our portfolio. There job is cost containment in health care, who doesn't want that.

The second half of the doubleheader appropriately is the rail transportation company, CSX Corp. (Symbol CSX, $20.41).
CSX is expecting 2011 earnings per share of $1.69 and 2012 earnings of $1.93 per share. Analyst love this stock with 17 Strong Buy recommendations on it. Rail is still the cheapest way to move stuff. The company pays a 2.35% dividend and has a Return on Equity of 20.70%.  You can buy the stock here because it is off a little bit this year. Note the three year Total Return on the stock is 97.7%.


On more important news, the last US Troops left Iraq at 2:30 AM this morning and exited to Kuwait.  Job well done. 4487 of our soldiers gave their lives for the fight to end terrorism. The world and our country is a safer place because of their hard work and ultimate sacrifice. 







If you want to help the folks coming back, you can find a variety of avenues on this website. Networkforgood.org . Christmas will be special this year for allot of families.  


So, I think these two stocks will give you good returns over the next year. Have a blessed holiday no matter what religion that you believe in, and keep your family healthy and safe.

Freewilly

"One from Super Mario and his team with improving fundamentals and a good value price. Dana Holdings Corp. (DAN)"

Dow Jones Indusrial Average (UP 800!!)  12,019  Week ending 12-02-2011

Our never ending search for stocks with good fundamentals this week leads us to the top five list of Mario Gabelli and his crack team of researchers at GAMCO Investors, Inc. (This blog is a continuation from last week, running late). Mario for years has identified the macro trends and stocks that will do well based on those trends. In this case, the discovered stock is that of Dana Holding Corp. (Symbol DAN, $12.26) . Dana, the supplier of axle, driveshaft, structural, sealing and thermal management products for global vehicle manufacturers turned the corner to profitability last year after years of miserable losses. The company is projecting earnings for 2011 of $1.65 per share and for 2012 of $1.88 per share.  The auto parts stocks have been a pretty good area over the years with successful companies like Autozone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, BorgWarner and Genuine Auto Parts.

The numbers role out a little strange on this one. The one year total return this year is (-28.8%) on the stock. However, the  3 year total return on the stock is 1556.8%.  The forward PE on the stock is 7.4,  so it is quite a good value right here. Investors are going to want to see some consistency here so this price will move up more slowly but this is what gives you the opportunity to purchase. Our theme is 1 year to 3 year investments so this fits in quite nicely. 

Mario has some other good stuff available in these turbulent times.  My broker recommended to me the Gabelli Utility Trust, (Symbol GUT,$7.46). This investment is up 14.04% this year, but more importantly it pays an 8.04% dividend and it pays that dividend out monthly!  In this environment that is a really good thing keep you moving forward.

I have been very busy, sorry I was a week late. I will try to catch up this week. Please keep those Euro folks on the straight and narrow so we can keep this rally going.

Freewilly 

"Well now that the turkey day, Thanksgiving, has passed and the Black Friday weekend is here, how are the stock prices of the retailers doing this year"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  11,232 (Down)  Week ending 11-25-2011

Well we celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday this week our traditional gathering to eat a sumptuous meal of Turkey here in the US.  It turned out that the week in the stock market also was a "turkey" as we had the worst Thanksgiving stock trading week since 1932. You will remember that year, " In 1932 the economy continued to deteriorate and unemployment increased further in 1932 to 24.1% , there were few jobs and many ordinary Americans were forced into living in the streets or in old cars. Towards the end of the year in November the American voter used the power of Democracy to show Herbert Hoover what they thought of his term of presidency during these bad times and voted strongly in favor of Franklin D Roosevelt by 472 electoral votes to 59. "   Sound familiar?  Maybe we will follow the lessons of history and make a change in our government and get things turned around.

I thought this week with the kickoff of Black Friday and the holiday shopping season that I would do something different and report just how some of the retail stocks are doing with their stock price year to date (YTD). I picked out a mix of stocks that I hear talked about often. I pulled my stats from the CNBC quote website.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc.  (ULTA) -  +87.41%
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) - +71.71%
Sally Beauty Supplies (SBH) - +41.22%
Express (EXPR) - +37.95%
Dollar Tree (DLTR) - +36.58%
Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) - +30.64%
Ross Stores (ROST) - +30.27%
TJX Cos. (TJX) - +26.37%
Costco -(COST) - +19.66%
Petsmart -(PETM) - +16.92%
CVS Caremark Corp. - +16.76%
Limited Brands (LTD) - +13.47%
Tiffany (TIF) - +13.32%
Foot Locker (FL) - +11.81%
Walmart (WMT) - +5.33%
Amazon (AMZN) - +2.90%
JC Penney (JCP) - (-9.78)%

One thing is apparent, you would have done pretty well buying most of the retail stocks on the list.  If you had bought a stock this year though like Best Buy you would have been down 41% so not all were winners. Surprisingly, Wal-Mart and Amazon not very high up on the list even with their high volume of sales. It appears that the 2011 holiday shopping season has been pretty good so far.

 If you are looking at the fundamentals of these companies just make sure that they do not have a large build up in inventories over multiple quarters. That is a Red flag that business is slowing up. I imagine that the best time to buy retail stocks would be now and then sell them into earnings in January.

I won't tell you which one to buy, but the one above seems to have a surplus of female customers that love their athletic clothing line.

Catch you next week,   Freewilly

Shhhhh! The fundamentals tell me that you should very quietly start buying the stock of Citigroup Inc."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,796  (Down) Week Ending 11/18/2011

Sometimes you are down so far that the only place to look is up. (picture left). There will continue to be rumblings and tumblings with the European countries and banking systems with the travails of the Euro. But one of these days, while the dust is settling, there will be a flight to safety to the recapitalized banks of the United States of America. And on that day, a company with one of the ugliest 5 year stock charts I have ever seen is going to start it's long ascent back up to prominence in the Dow.



5 Year chart of Citigroup (symbol C, NYSE)

 Citigroup Inc. (Symbol C, $26.28) has the fundamentals lining up to become a good one to three year investment. I know, you are thinking to yourself, what about the large overhang of the housing and mortgage market. The market will slowly digest it and the housing market will very slowly start to stabilize and turn around in the other direction. Inventories will eventually come down.

Citigroup has projected 2011 earnings per share of $4.08 and projected 2012 earnings per share of $4.45. 3rd quarter GAP earnings were up 75.71% this year's quarter over last year's quarter. Total Net Income continues to rise each quarter over the next. They are getting their fiscal house in order and it will be corrected over time.  Sales growth will be a rough road to hoe for a while with a company that has such large revenues to begin with.





Yes , you could play it safe in the treacherous waters of this market and buy a JP Morgan or Wells Fargo like some well noted investors have, and they are very good businesses, but their stocks are not trading at 49% off of their 52 week high price like Citi is here. This is a longer term trade that you will buy and put away awhile and check the price in about 6 months. The return will come over time, a rare thought in these markets.

Here is a New York Times link on the stock: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/citigroup_inc/index.html

You may even save a few bucks if you buy it next week with Congress's "Super" Committee in deadlock and another possible US credit downgrade coming. Time for the US Govt. to finally get their financial house in order. 

Freewilly

"This Copper and Gold company is looking pretty inexpensive here. The stock? Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (symbol FCX)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,983   (Down) Week ending 11/03/2011



Mr. Dawes, Sr.: "When stand the banks of England,
England stands...when fall the banks of England, England falls!"

 A lesson from the movie Mary Poppins,  from so many years ago. Confidence. If little Michael doesn't save his tuppence at the bank, there will be foreclosures and business failures. When he decides that he wants to use his money to feed the birds instead , and wants to take it with him and the people hear that the bank won't give the money back, confidence is lost, panic ensues, and of course a run on the Dawes, Tomes, Mousely, Grubbs,  Fidelity Fiduciary Bank!

Confidence. The America’s Financial Industry Regulatory Authority gets a little twitchy and asked MF Global to post more capital to back up it's Euro-zone government bond exchange swaps with bets of 6 billion on Spain and Italy government bonds, which in normal times is a low risk exchange transaction. Then Moody's downgrades MF Global's credit rating and all the other firms lose confidence and stop trading with MF Global.

 On Halloween, Trick or Treat, MF Global says trick, and files for bankruptcy and has 700 million dollars of customer account money missing.  Jon Corzine, didn't you notice all those people outside your front window in the "Occupy Wall Street" protest that are there because of financial firms taking excessive risk with money?  I know you are a good guy, so I can only assume that you underestimated this new paradigm of risk that we live in today with the Euro-Zone troubles. I hope it somehow works out.

An Honorary Mention goes out also to Freddie Mac, who announced they lost billions and are asking for another 6 Billion from the government. (disgusted head shake here)  So let's talk now about making money instead of losing it.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (Symbol FCX, $40.32).  With this stock you will see some common themes that I like. First, a 2.49% dividend for some income and to cut down on people shorting the stock. Second , the stock price is down from short term downturn in earnings , but earnings will increase going forward with a forward PE of 7.91. The company is projecting 2012 earnings of $.5.07 which is projected down from a few months ago when it was projected up near $5.57. I think we will have a rise in the price of copper and gold which will bring some of these earnings back in.

FCX has 5 year sales growth of 23.8%. Net profit margins have been 24.50%. The company has been running a return on equity of 38.90%.
To me , Copper is just plain cheap here at $3.56 per pound.


Gold has taken a little breather here, coming down from the $1950.00 and ounce level down to $1755.00 per ounce. This company gives you exposure to both metals. The company is also a Molybdenum mining company, if you have an affinity for that metal.

If you buy this stock you are with good institutional company.  State Street, The Vanguard Group and Blackrock each have 5% of their holdings in this stock. The financials of this company look very healthy to me.

I guess it wouldn't hurt us all to save a little more money and spend a little less. So, put some tuppence in the bank and restore a little confidence in our financial condition.

Freewilly

" Sometimes you just need to put a muscular and unbreakable stock on your team, so that you can sleep easier at night"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,231 (UP) Week ending 10/28/2011

I don't know if it is because it has been raining ice and snow all day and it has taken down some of my trees or if watching a rerun of "GI Jane" and watching the grueling training that the US Navy Seals go through, but it just put me in the mood to write about a stock that is "tough as nails", with numbers that just never quit. The nails analogy is good here, because this stock has just the tools to hammer in those nails. I am talking about the stock of  Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (Symbol SWK, $66.69).  

     The marriage of Stanley Tool Works and Black and Decker took a little while to get back in operational line, but they are in lock and load mode right now, unbreakable.  Last quarter proforma earnings were up 38% to start with. 2011 earnings ending in December is projected at $5.11 per share. Moving to 2012 , $5.91 per share. 5 year sales growth at this company is 17.55% with the 3 year total return of 116.5%. The stock had a dip down in 2008-2009 when the rest of the market took a tank and bottomed on March 5th, 2009, but from then on things have looked pretty good.


Demi Moore in GI Jane


P.S. after watching Demi Moore do push ups in the movie, I wouldn't go messin with her if you know what's good for you. SWK is up 9.56% year to date. The real tell on this stock is the 2.46% dividend of $1.64 a share. Stanley Black and Decker have raised the dividend in every year for the last 5 years. This is always a very good sign for any stock that you are investing in.

Something else you should know about this company is that they are benevolent. This press release just came out. JOPLIN, Mo., Oct 20, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK) a Fortune 500 provider of hand tools, power tools and security solutions, today announced a $350,000 tool donation to the Joplin, Missouri, rebuilding efforts. Our friend and builder of our kitchen, Andy Doyle, just donated his time and went to Joplin and built a new wooden children's playground out there in Joplin. So good things can happen when corporations and individuals work together for a cause.

I must be old, because I remember Demi Moore as the girl with the raspy voice on the TV show "General Hospital"  that was on  in the afternoons. She does a good job in the movie GI Jane, if you get a chance to see it.

Have a good snowy end of October. November should be fun with the market moving up. I like some of the commodity stocks going forward with a hint of inflation showing up in interest rates.

Jacko-Lantern in snow - Deb Wilson


All the best ,    Freewilly

"Diversify your IRA or 401K by purchasing stock in dollar blocks of $1500-$2000 to keep things managable for you"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11808.79 (UP) Week ending 10/21/2011

I am always looking for stock positions to diversify my IRA portfolio that tend to be broken down into blocks of $1500 to $2000 to form building blocks. So in a $10,000 portfolio you may have 4 or 5 stocks
that are Large cap or Mid cap , then maybe one or two stocks that are Small capitalization companies. So I am looking for good fundamental value as far as price to earnings and revenue growth and preferably a stock that I can buy a fair amount of shares of. In this current trading environment it does not hurt to have a dividend.

So what would I buy on Monday?  NOKIA Corp. ADR (Symbol NOK, $6.61) , (logo the work of Atakos.com , Design and Marketing blog)                                                                                        

You could buy 250 shares here for $1652.50. This would fill a large cap stock position in your portfolio. NOK pays a nice dividend yield of 7.26 percent. Revenues and earnings have been sickly here the last year because of a short term lack of competitive product to compete with the Apple I-phone and multi-platformed Google Android phone lines. However the word is that the Nokia smartphone with the new simplified Microsoft phone interface in it will be out for the Christmas sales season. I think this new simplified phone interface will be well accepted internationally. Remember, even in an off year,this company did over 58 billion in revenue.

Another stock I like right here is NVIDIA Corp. (Symbol NVDA, $14.48). You could buy 125 shares for $1810.00. NVDA has a long term growth rate of 16.91%. Earnings for 2012 looks like $1.00 per share and for 2013, $1.18 per share. The company's "best 3D technology for the PC just got better with the introduction of new NVIDIA(R)3D Vision(TM) products, which deliver greater realism and immersion than ever for 3D games, movies and photos".  The company pays no dividend but has the major plus in these leveraged times of having zero long term debt. Tech stocks as a sector seemed to be ready for some upside movement in this 4th quarter.


People tend to diversify by market sectors, but don't forget to also diversify with large cap, mid cap, small cap and international stocks.  

Have a good last trading week of October. Still have Halloween on the following Monday. Make sure you don't eat all the candy before the kids get there!

Freewilly

                                                                                                                                                                                                

"Occupy Wall Street? Heck for Twenty Six dollars and Fifty-Three Cents you can own Wall Street, with the shares of NYSE Euronext"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11644.49  (Up) Week ending 10-14-2011

Everybody is mad at Wall Street. Citizens are mad at the banks that were too big to fail, and bankers that still got their fat bonus checks.Those banks took capital risk that they normally would not have taken, knowing they would be bailed out if they screwed up. And screw up big time they did! The banks along with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae made high risk loans to people to buy houses who put very little money down and that they could not afford. Everybody was making money in real estate, and the activity drove home prices to speculative levels that could not be sustained. So now we are stuck with this wicked multi year financial hangover and lingering 9% unemployment.

So why not just own Wall Street and have them pay you? NYSE EURONEXT , (Symbol NYX, $26.53) stock gives you ownership in the New York Stock Exchange. First you start out with getting paid a 4.41% dividend. The stock trades at a meager value PE of 10.38. Average 5 year sales growth of 17.70% and earnings growth of 10% a year. You wrap all that together and you are bound to get a pretty good annual return. The stock was trading as high as $41.55 in May of this year, so you have plenty of headroom here.

You could also take your protest to other cities around the world because NYSE Euronext owns:    The New York Stock Exchange, Amsterdam Stock Exchange, Brussels Stock Exchange, Paris Bourse,  London (LIFFE) and the Lisbon Stock Exchange. You would have a lot of curbs to sit on and not get kicked off because you would be the owner!

 
So get your Protest groove on , and keep it peaceful, that's how Martin Luther King Jr. and Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi would have done it. The voice of the people. Let's get a job for everyone that wants one.

Freewilly

"Some ideas extracted from Investors Business Daily and some from Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV show"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11103.12  (Down) Week ending 10-07-2011

Some times a small reward in your day can help you make it
through. Hershey Co Inc. (symbol HSY, $58.99) can deliver these chocolate treats and has been doing it for years. This tasty stock has a one year total return of 21.9% and a three year total return of 68.6%.  The stock pays a nice 2.34% dividend and has a staggering Return on Equity percentage of  67.00%. The IDB rating is 90-62-92. Earnings growth a little mild, but very consistent. 

Another stock that jumped out at me from IDB was not usually a stock that you would often talk about. STAMPS.COM (symbol STMP, $24.72) has a long term growth rate of 18%. Stamps has an IDB rating of 99-89-99 A+, B. , with 99 the highest rating you can get for growth. 12 month Total Return is 67.6% and the 3 year Total Return of 173.8%.   These are two stocks that I saw in Investors Business Daily that peaked my interest. They do an excellent job of extracting data and making it easy to see and understand.

Jim Cramer of CNBC , who went to the same high school as my wife Deborah here in Springfield (Montco) PA., works harder than anyone I know to bring you just tremendous investment ideas on his TV show Mad Money and on his websites. You will find his websites on the links on the right column of my blog. I was lucky enough to be watching when Jim brought on to his show the CEO of Whiting Petroleum Corp. (symbol WLL,$35.54) . This stock is flat out great value investment which is down this year. The CEO is committed to getting the stock price back up. Great fundamentals and  explosive earnings growth with 2011 earnings per share of $3.67 per share and 2012 earnings of $4.66. This company has 18, (count'em) , strong buy recommendations according to SmartMoney.

Jim , (pictured), a week later brought the CEO of Red Hat Inc. (symbol RHT,$42.88) on to his show and rolled out just another great company.
Long term growth 20.40%. 12 strong buy recommendations. The stock is only up 1.5% this year but the three year total return of 222.2%. We can live with that number!  This company helps companies save money. That is a winning concept all the time.

One  last recommendation from Jim is Big Blue,  International Business Machines Corp. (symbol IBM, 182.39).  Eleven strong buy recommendations.  The price might look high on a historical basis, but the company is projecting 2012 earnings of $14.75 per share. A three total return of 104%. Not too shabby!

 So it's OK to use the other guys recommendations when they are going to make you money. They have full research staffs to help them out and lots of eyes and ears out there to find those great ideas. Three bucks for an daily IDB and Jim Cramer gives you lots of free stuff and also offers professional services if you prefer their inside stuff and a timing advantage.

So hope for sunny fall skies and Dow 12,000. Have a good week.

Freewilly