" Let's make your portfolio hard as nails by adding a little Under Armour (symbol UA ) (NYSE). An investment not for those who sit on the bench on the sidelines"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,212 (UP) Week ending 03-30-2011

Your probably wondering why I am recommending the purchase of a stock Under Armour Inc. Cl A (Symbol UA, $94.00) that has a forward trading PE of 42?  Well how about because it has a Consensus Estimate of GAP earnings of a rise of 63.54%!  (.60 cents over .37 cents per share).  This dude has got game! 2012 earnings per share are projected at $2.33 and then rises in 2013 to a projection of $2.99 earnings per share.

The financials on this stock are very strong. UA's  Current ratio is 7 - 2 , Assets to Liabilities to speak in horse racing odds, and I thing this one will be a pace setting runner. 5 year sales growth for the company has been 28.36%. It has projected long term Earnings growth of 27.53 %. 

They also have a very healthy Return on Equity of 17.37%. I would consider this a very aggressive growth investment to fill that part of your portfolio for high growth. (my broker Vince likes this one too for this purpose. I told him I wanted to be in the game!). It will of course have a high beta to go along with that, with the price moving around rapidly. 

Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. They make really slick stuff and do really slick marketing of that stuff.  Here is their website. www.underarmour.com  .

4.68% of the company's stock is owned by the Berkshire:Focus Fund. They are currently up 28.45% on their investment. The one year total return on the stock is 28.36% and the 3 year total return is 420.2%.

"Slick stuff for Slick Willy". Maybe I could even golf decently if I donned the Under Armour wear.  Probably  not!   

    Wishing you a Happy April Fool's day and also Palm Sunday if your are a Christian in around an hour and 10 minutes if you are in the USA eastern time zone.  

Freewilly signing off

"Happy 20th anniversary Smart Money magazine. In honor of it, Sarah Morgan of Dow Jones writes about the top twenty stocks for those 20 years. I will discuss the best, #1 and #2"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,232.62 (Up) Week ending 03-16-2012.
Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,081 (down) Week ending 03-23-2012.

The folks that do the fine work that is Smart Money Magazine celebrated their 20th Anniversary last week. They are a continuing source of reliable financial information and we thank them. Sarah Morgan there decided to put together the stats to see what stocks had performed the best as far as appreciation over the last 20 years and I decided to tell you about Number 1 & Number 2 that still both have good fundamentals.                                                                                                 

KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN (Symbol KSU, $70.45)  turned out to be the number one performing stock over the last 20 years. It has gone up an astounding 19,090%. They used to be a conglomerate but spun off the Janus Capital Group and are now just the railroad. What makes them special? Not only do they have the very desirable West-East railroad routes but they also crisscross with North-South routes going from Canada to Mexico. 

KSU continues to roll out the earnings with $3.48 per share projected for 2012 and $4.12 per share for 2013. Long term earnings are projected at 17.7%.   The one year total return has been 29.4% and the 3 year total return motored at 454.3%.  This train just keeps rolling down the track. Also if they don't build all these pipelines their tanker cars will be filled with crude oil and liquefied natural gas to get the stuff to the refinery locations. This one still looks good to me after 20 years of growth. 

So who was number #2? That would be  Middleby Corp. (Symbol MIDD,$99.72) . Who the heck is that and what business are they in? Sounds like an episode from the old show the Twilight Zone. (next stop Willoughby!) Well when you go on Friday night and pick up a pizza it was probably baked in one of their commercial ovens.  

Middleby had a leisurely Total return since April 1992 of 14,330%. You didn't know you had eatin that much pizza! Middleby "makes ovens and other equipments for restaurants, but "it's probably more of a technology company than an industrial or equipment company," says Anton Brenner, an equity analyst with Roth Capital Partners, LLC. "It's the most innovative company in the industry," Brenner says. They regularly add new labor-saving features to their equipment, he says. They've also grown through M&A: The stock really took off after Middleby merged with Blodgett, a division of Maytag that also made commercial cooking equipment."  (from Sarah's article). 

 MIDD is projecting earning per share for 2012 of $5.81 . 2013 is shaping up as projecting at $6.62 per share. 5 year sales growth has been 14.84% and the Long Term projected earnings growth is 22%. (all these stats are from SmartMoney of course). The company runs at a Buffett like 20.30% Return on Equity. The Total 3 year return has been a meager 207.5%  , enough to boost up your kid's college fund.

My brother Howard says my little articles with the logos reminds him of the AMC show "Madmen" produced by Lionsgate Entertainment (symbol LGF, $14.50) (and no slouch itself, just produced "the Hunger Games" !) . Well I hope it entertains and informs you at the same time. 

Do not be afraid to ask questions via the comment portion of this site to share ideas on these subjects.

Have a pleasant Spring day if you are in the Northern hemisphere. If you are in the Southern Hemisphere 12 more weeks of Winter.

Freewilly

"Burton G. Malkiel , Professor of Economics at Princeton University challenges the veracity of the concept of this blog which is based on Fundamental Analysis. Looks like it's time for a throw-down!"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,977.57 (Down) Week ending 03-02-2012
Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,922.00 (Down) Week ending 03-09-2012

Burton Malkiel in his landmark book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" which was first published in 1973, (I have the Six edition, 1996), examines his basis thesis that "the market,  prices stocks so efficiently that a blindfolded chimpanzee  throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal can select a portfolio that performs as well as those managed by experts". In other words, just throw away your fundamental or for that matter technical analysis of stocks and just go buy S&P Index funds from Burton's buddy Jack Bogle at the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies.

Before I start jumping all over this thesis, I would recommend getting a copy of this book, because it is loaded with good information about "Risk" and "Beta" and speaks on a range of investment vehicles. First, Index funds are by definition "Average" . They purchase all the stocks in a sector both good and bad and you can only end up with average. Now average, might look good if you are an investor with no discipline in your purchasing of stocks and are always speculating on bad stocks and losing money. The reason that the Index investing has worked at all over the years, is because of another investment premise that is very good, that of purchasing small amounts of stock consistently over time whether the market is up or down. This is a very good method, but why not apply it to good fundamental stocks instead?

Malkiel finds weakness in Fundamental Analysis at three points. First the information and analyst may be incorrect. He challenges that stock analyst cannot be clairvoyant on earnings predictions. Well with the Sarbanes-Oxley rules on financial disclosure and the wealth of public information available this is not as much of a concern. It must be understood that random events can influence a companies earnings. Second, he says the analyst"s estimate of "Value" may be faulty. Well if Freewilly is your analyst, I will admit that sometimes I find estimating revenue growth for a company as somewhat problematic. I will keep you out of trouble though because of the many alternate investment choices. Third , the stock market may not correct it's "mistake" and the stock price might not converge to it's true value estimate. (Witness the stocks of GM and Ford last year, GM my biggest loser! Serves me right for investing along side the US government!). Yeah, that happens sometimes, but not to often with well managed companies.

Never under estimate the intelligence of a Chimpanzee. Nor that of an amateur stock blogger. I have been so busy that I didn't get my pick out to press last week but I purchased it anyway based on fundamentals and a double catalyst.

Verifone (Symbol PAY, $47.80) I purchased on Monday and it was down on Monday. On Tuesday with the Dow down 200 Points, Verifone (Pay) was up 3 and 1/2 points. What are the catalyst? ................................

"VeriFone to Enable Isis NFC Mobile Commerce Access for Millions of Retail Checkout Lanes Nationwide. VeriFone Systems, Inc. (NYSE: PAY), today announced an agreement with Isis, the joint venture between AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile USA and Verizon Wireless, to integrate the Isis Mobile Commerce Application in current and future NFC-enabled product lines. The companies have also agreed that their sales, marketing and implementation teams will collaborate to target large retail and petroleum/convenience merchants in previously announced Isis launch markets of Salt Lake City and Austin." The Smartphone strikes again!  The second catalyst is something I picked up in conversation. That is the rumor that with the advent of the SIM chip on the credit card and the new layers of security being put in place, that basically every credit machine that is in the field, is in effect, currently, obsolete,  because they can not read the new SIM chip cards. This is not a bad bit of news for Verifone, who just bought Hypercom and who along with Ingenico, make most of these machines. 

The company, which already had a 5 year revenue growth rate of 11% and a Return on Equity of 31.3%, looks to be in a very good position. 2012 earnings per share is projected at $2.66 and for 2013 it is $3.25 per share (if you can believe the analyst!).

So I will conclude, randomly, by saying that a group of good fundamental stocks will beat an index of average stocks hands down every time.  Best of luck and buy in small increments over time.

Also, Freewilly welcome the IDX -Indonesia Stock Exchange to our site this week to be added to our Stock Exchange column on the right side.

Freewilly 

                                                                                                                             

"Back to the Oil patch to find more value and good fundamentals with Oil Services Company, Halliburton Co."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,005 (Up) - the close Tuesday , February, 28th

"Founded in 1919, Halliburton is one of the world's largest providers of products and services to the oil and gas industry. It employs nearly 70,000 people in approximately 80 countries.
Halliburton's fascinating and proud history reveals a continuous focus on innovation and expansion that began with the company's founder, Erle P. Halliburton. After borrowing a wagon, a team of mules and a pump, he built a wooden mixing box and started an oil well cementing business in Duncan, Oklahoma."  This is how it started according to Halliburton's website.

Halliburton Co. (Symbol HAL, $37.68) and other Oil Service stocks have been lagging the market recently despite the great rise in the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude ($106.60 per barrel). This despite having 25 Strong Buy recommendations from analyst and 9 Overweight ratings. Halliburton is projected to earn $3.93 per share in 2012 and 2013 earnings are looking like $4.58 per share. This reflects a forward PE of 9.6 which is way below the market average. A couple reasons for this are the fact that earnings from gas drilling are expected to slow up a bit because of a supply glut and nowhere to store the surplus natural gas. Second, Halliburton's name has been mentioned in the big BP and TransOcean oil rig leak in the Gulf of Mexico, because they were the cementer.

But there is no denying the numbers. HAL, (like in 2001 a Space Odyssey), has a company Return on Equity of 25%. Also, although the one year total return on the stock is -19%, the three year Total return on the stock is actually 137.5 %. Ebitda continues to rise each quarter and Revenues have been on a steady quarterly rise. Plus one of these days they are going to let you do some offshore drilling off the coast of the USA. We better do it quick because the Chinese already have a rig in production off the coast of Cuba!  

 Halliburton states on their website that "As we work with our customers and suppliers to develop global energy resources, sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy and a key driver in all of our business activities. Our innovative technologies and our operational experience and expertise enable us to minimize our environmental impact and successfully manage the social challenges and inherent risk that are present in our industry."

So Freewilly says Drill, Drill, Drill and make some investment in the great stock value which is Halliburton"

Freewilly

"The oil in the Alberta Tar Sands needs to go somewhere. Whether it goes south or whether it goes west , Enbridge (Symbol ENB), will be involved"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  12,950 (Up) Week Ending 02-17-2012

First a report from Bloomberg NEWS:

"Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Enbridge Inc. fell the most in almost three year after disclosing that Noverco Inc., which owns 8.9 percent of the Canadian pipeline company, plans to sell a third of its stake.

Enbridge, the largest transporter of Canadian crude to the U.S., fell 4.1 percent to C$37.58 at the close in Toronto, the biggest decline since Feb. 23, 2009.

Noverco, a holding company that’s 61 percent-owned by Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, Canada’s largest pension fund, plans to sell 22.5 million of its 69.4 million Enbridge shares. Enbridge owns the other 39 percent of Montreal-based Noverco. The sell off will result in $300 million for Enbridge, the Calgary-based company said in a statement.

Noverco is selling the shares to rebalance its asset mix, Enbridge said in the statement. The sale represents 2.9 percent of Enbridge’s outstanding shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

This news should create and opportunity to buy some Enbridge (Symbol ENB, $37.73) here in the next few weeks at some discounted prices.  Enbridge owns some of the premier oil pipelines of the world with 2 more projects planned that could really expand them.

One, the TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline which is an expansion of the existing Keystone pipeline has been initially stalled on the US end by President Obama. Stephen Harper ,Canada's Prime Minister ,says "if we can't send the oil south then we will send it west to countries that want to buy it." 

Which is the second project:   

Enbridge Northern Gateway project. There is opposition to this project by the Regional Districts and the Indian Coastal First Nations. Under the current proposal, the controversial pipeline  $5.5-billion would carry 525,000 barrels of oil sands-derived crude from Edmonton to Kitimat, B.C. One concern is the environmental impact of tankers coming in and out of northern coastal waters with risk of a spill in the major fishing areas along the coast.

I believe that Apache Corp. (symbol APA) is getting ready to start mid-2012 a Kitimat LNG project and terminal for Liquified Natural Gas. So there will be tankers coming in and out of this port already anyway. The Canadian government will need to plan this well and have a sophisticated traffic scheme in place to avoid any accidents that would effect the local fishing industry and ecosystems. I believe that both of these projects will eventually get approved and built.

Enbridge, symbol ENB, should earn $1.65 per share in 2012 and $1.86 per share in 2013. Enbridge pays out a 3% dividend yield and has a 12 month Total Return of 29.4% and a 3 year Total Return of 170.8% . This is why Caisse de Depot needs to rebalance their portfolio! 

So look to buy this in the $34-$37 range and be patient for it to come in.

My thoughts and prayers are with my brother-in-law, George Zwicker, who we lost this week on Valentines Day, Feb 14th to a heart attack during a hospital procedure. George lived in Berlin, New Hampshire, USA and grew up in Springfield, PA. and he will be greatly missed.

 Zwicker is certainly a recognized last name in Nova Scotia and the eastern coastal areas of Canada.

Freewilly

"Sitting here watching American Pickers on the History Channel. I am amazed at the endless interest going on in other people's Surplus Assets"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12801.23 (Down) Week ending 02-10-2012

Everybody seems to want everybody else's old stuff. It is like the Yankee Magazine swap page gone wild.    Ebay, Craig'sList, Amazon, pawn shops, swap meets, flea markets and people swapping texts and emails on their smartphones makin deals and trades. Odd ball items of all sorts changing hands. Everyone trying to raise cash and parlay it forward into more exciting stuff.

 It was no surprise to me that someone has made a real business out of surplus assets. But what really surprised me was when I discovered that Liquidity Services, Inc. ( Symbol LQDT, $40.12) showed up as Numero Uno in IBD's top 100 list from last week. CNBC's profile says that "Liquidity Services, Inc. is an auction marketplace for surplus and salvage assets. The Company enables buyers and sellers to transact in an automated online auction environment offering over 500 product categories."  Looks like 'swap-meet gone global'.

They don't sell & collect any antique pinball machines but they have all kinds of other stuff.  It is more likely that they have government surplus half-track trucks or motorcycles for sale.  Projected long term earnings growth here is 30% per year. 2013 earnings are projected at $1.62 per share.  The one year Total Return on the stock is 150.2%.  The 3 year Total Return has been 755.3%. 

I have been talking about a lot of high momentum stocks here in 2012. They do have a degree of risk to them, and do not have the traditional year over year fundamentals that I usually look for and recommend. I guess the 2012 election year has me looking forward to better times. These stocks have also run up a bit this year, so I would approach them cautiously and buy in in increments, rather than all at once. I think you are OK on this one though, they are growing pretty quick.

Could be a tense week, with the Iranian's spouting off about their current Nuclear acheivements. It could give the market an excuse to take a little profit of the table this week.

Freewilly

" So it's SuperBowl weekend and they have finished up another WingBowl here in Philadelphia. So there's nothing left to talk about but Buffalo Wild Wings"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12862.23 (UP)  Week ending 02-03-2012

Takeru Kobayashi mastered Philadelphia's annual Wingbowl noshing event by eating 337 chicken wings in a half-hour before a crowd of nearly 20,000 at Wing Bowl XX at the Wells Fargo center in Philadelphia , PA.. Kobayashi beat the record of 255 set last year by Jonathan "Super" Squibb. WingBowl was founded in 1993 by Philadelphia talk-radio hosts Angelo Cataldi and Al Morganti as a celebration of gluttony.  The contest was first broadcast on WIP

The WingBowl was invented to distract us from the fact that another year passes by without our Phillly Iggles (Eagles) being in the SuperBowl. Another fact is that you can be making money off of this national craze for football and chicken wings.

 BUFFALO WILD WINGS (Symbol , BWLD, $70.30)  is a company on the move. There ranking in Investors Business Daily is 99-95-88 B+ B+.  This fast growing company will have 2011 earnings per share of $2.67 and 2012 earnings per share of $3.20 a share.  They are taking all their money and plowing it back into the company into new stores. Five year sales growth here of 21.46% and earnings growth for five years of 23.32%. One year total return of 32.7% and 3 year Total Return on your stock investment of 127.7%. No chicken left on bones here as far as productivity. You can eat healthy here too with a nice spicy Chicken wrap sandwich.

You also will need something to wash down all those wings. Monster Beverage Corp. (Symbol MNST, $105.70) will kick up the energy for you. This little diddy has a one year total return on the stock of 83.7%. The 3 year Total return  is a cool 217.6%. That will put a little energy is your step. The return ROE (Return on Equity) for the company is 24.9 %. Now I know why they call it Monster! 

It is 6:10 PM EST and it is time for my SuperBowl prediction. I should note that I am better picking stocks, then I am football scores.                                                                                                      Patriots 31 -Giants 27                 

I am a closet Eli Manning fan and Freewilly will be cheering for our NFC East division rival New York Football Giants as Howard Cosell used to call them.

Freewilly

"SILVER WHEATON - SLW - looks like a great investment here with the Fed staying pat hand until 2014"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,660 (Down)  Week ending 01-27-2012

This was the week that the FED said that they were not going to do anything with interest rates until 2014. Hmmn??  Just a quick pick here this week based on that little tidbit of information.                                                                                 SILVER WHEATON, (Symbol SLW, $36.23, up today Feb 1st) is a company that according to their profile operates as a silver streaming company in the world. There are Eleven strong buy recommendations on this stock. 2011 earnings per share of $1.64 and projected 2012 earnings of $2.29 per share make this a very interesting story.  

SLW records a Net Profit margin of 75.3% and has a Total 3 year return of 448.1%. Starting to get the picture here? They even throw in a 1.01% dividend yield.  

Silver has had quite a run here and this may look like a trap trade based on history, but these are rampant deflationary times (especially in housing) and people will look to retain the value of their assets. Silver gives you a lot  more leverage than Gold because of the lower price point. 

The company also has a fantastic balance sheet. It has a current ratio of almost 6:1.

Have a good week. February usually presents some good opportunities for purchasing stocks.

Freewilly

"This week we go to Dublin, Ireland to find a healthcare company with great earnings and fundamentals, Covidien PLC"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  12,720 (Up) Week ending 01-20-2012

For some reason I was looking at the Medical Equipment suppliers, I guess because I was looking for businesses that will have growth no matter what the economy is doing. That brought me to the spin off from the old Tyco Healthcare

which is the Dublin , Ireland based Covidien PLC (Symbol COV, $51.69),  the price was $48.04 when I started writing this article last weekend. 2012 annual earnings looking like $4.26 per share and 2013 earnings of $4.61 per share.  

Covidien PLC's (COV) fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 16% as the medical-products maker posted improved sales in its key medical devices business and strengthened margins. Dow Jones reports that "The maker of operating-room gear, generic drugs and other items has in recent quarters boasted strong sales in its medical devices segment, which it has reshaped in recent years. The business, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the company's top line, reported sales grew 5.7% in the latest quarter to $1.98 billion. "

Ireland, which charges some of the lowest tax rates on businesses , has been a shining model for the rest of the world on how to do it right. COV now has 20 analyst that have strong buy recommendations on the stock. The Total three year return on the stock is 41.2%. The stock also pays a 1.74% dividend rate currently giving you a nice annual return on investment combined with its growth. The company also operates at a  has a nice Net Profit Margin of 16.5%.   The Fidelity Select Medical Fund has 12.84% of their fund invested in this stock. Their YTD return so far is 8.73%

COV, I believe, based on fundamentals can make up a solid part of your diversified portfolio. The stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange and Ireland may take a small piece of the dividend paid. My daughter has visited Ireland and she says they are very welcoming to visitors.    

             So Freewilly says "Go Irish!"         Freewilly    

                                       

"Patents, Patents who owns the Wireless Patents? One name that you should hear about"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,422  (UP) Week ending 01-13-2012

Google (GOOG) is out there buying Motorola Mobility Solutions (MMI) for $40.00 per share just to get their wireless patents. Motorola the grand old dame of cellular wireless has been stacking up these communications patents going all the way back to their co-invention of the "Walkie-Talkie".  

LG Electronics, Motorola Mobility, InterDigital, Nokia, Samsung, Apple, EMC, Ericsson, Microsoft, Research In Motion (RIM) , Nortel, Huawei, Freescale, NEC, Sony, HTC, Samsung,  ZTE, Oracle, Google, and of course Qualcomm all are lined up in the wireless patent owners parade, 2G, 3G and 4G.

As pure patent investment plays Qualcomm (Symbol QCOM) and Interdigital (IDCC) have done very well over the past few years.  Enter here a new name that came to my attention the end of last week in the NASDAQ unusual sales volume column on their website.

Acacia Research Corp. - Acacia Technologies (Symbol ACTG, $42.69).    

I started working on this blog back on the weekend and if I had typed faster and got it posted, I would have saved you a few bucks per share on ACTG that went up over the last few days. This pure patent play had 2011 earnings of $1.24 per share and 2012 projecting out at $1.82 per share.

5 year sales growth is 33.13%. One year Total Return is 63.8% Three year total return is a staggering 1,168,8% . (Stats from Smartmoney.com Peer comparison page).   The forward PE on the stock is 23.8 .      

Speaking of Patents and Content idea Piracy,  Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog supports the Wikipedia, Google and other websites today in protest of the government proposals in Anti-Piracy laws, (SOPA), on the Internet. Writers on the web need to responsibly cite public content sources with references when using content from other sites, just like you would with writing in any other media venue.   We do not need or want the government and lawyers imposing censorship at there own whims for content on the web like the Chinese do.  

If someone has a good idea share it, and cite it! You can also include  links back to the original content in your articles if it is relevant to explain what you are trying to say.                                                   

 So keep coming up with those great wireless ideas to patent and make sure you are getting full credit for them!                Freewilly       Keep speech Free and unencumbered on the web!          

                                                           

"Looking to capitalize on the next Black Swan event. Where and when may the next one pop up. I think Real Estate"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12217.56 (Down) Week ending 12-30-2011 - End of Year

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12359.92 (UP) Week ending 01-06-2012

 
The Black Swan Theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that "The event" is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

1.The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology

2.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)

3.The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
(Source Wikepedia)

The largest black swan economic event of the last 5 years was certainly the collapse of the Mortgage Backed Securities market worldwide and the downturn in values in the US real estate market. Trillions of dollars in investor equity being loss. My thinking now is that the Real Estate market has over corrected.  This will create at some point a boomerang effect and possibly a "Black Swan" event going rapidly in the other direction to return to the mean.

So I am looking this week at some of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT'S) that you may be able to take advantage of this bounce back in prices. I am not drifting to far a field from some familiar names because they are the entities with the largest capital and purchasing capabilities to take advantage of this turn when it happens.

EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (Symbol EQR, $55.69) of Chicago , IL. the developer of apartment properties would be the first one to look at. EQR operates at a Net profit margin of 52.20% , not to shabby. It has a 4.08% dividend yield and the stock has profited from people not being able to afford houses and moving into apartments instead. EQR has produced a 3 year return
 on the stock price of 152. 3%.


Simon Property Group Inc. (Symbol SPG, $126.82 ) would be the next REIT to look at. It has been extremely profitable and very successful even without a black swan event. Lets say to the tune of a 3 year return of   215.2%.

SL Green Realty Corp. (Symbol SLG, $69.78) are the "Kings of New York City" real estate guys and gals. Own SLG and you can be like Donald Trump, a real estate magnate. Net Profit margins for the company are 54.90% and the 3 year Total return on the stock is 354.5% . Think about a Black Swan event happening and them really doing good! Throw in 5 year sales growth of 14.68 %.

You probably drive by one of these on your way to work everyday and never notice it,  PUBLIC STORAGE (Symbol PSA, $132.28) .  You have to empty out a bunch of houses and the stuff has to go somewhere. People are hoarders, they never throw anything away due to the fear of lost value.
5 year earnings growth here at Public Storage is 40.49%. Net profit margins run 45.2%. ( By the way credit all these stats the fine work of the people at Smartmoney.com , great job by them). Total 3 year return of 128.2%. So somebody has been making money in the real estate downturn.

  Of course you cannot have real estate without mortgages. (unless you happen to be really rich). With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
sorting out their current quagmire, the logical place to look for investment in this area is Annaly Capital Management Inc. (Symbol NLY, $16.06).  49.10% Net Profit Margins here at NLY.  5 year sales growth of 14.76%.  This one has a 14.20% dividend yield to keep your interest in case you get bored. A three year total return of 56.5%.  Remember that before the "big fallout" that this was a very profitable business for a long time.

If you think of other Black Swan economic events for 2012 please comment on my blog and share them with everyone and we can try to flush out investment ideas for it.

Thank you and happy hunting,

Freewilly