"Looking for Value? You don't have to look far to find these two stocks for your Superbowl Portfolio"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  14,009.79 (UP) Week ending 02-01-2013

Dow Jones 14,000. The folks that are on the sidelines with their pile of cash are steamed up because they have missed the rally. The folks that are in the market are happy for their gains, but are scared because they think back to 2007 and wonder if the swoon could happen again. Where am I at? 70/30. 70% in stocks and 30% in cash. 

So what do you do here early February? Continue to pick up stocks that are good values based on their growth, and only take partial positions. Start also taking off partial positions in stocks that have not performed well in the last two months. If they have not moved up during the rally, they are probably not going to.

So what are these value stocks that you can be adding here at these lofty heights?  Tractor Supply Co. (Symbol TSCO, $103.96) Return on Equity 26.53% and PEG Ratio 1.04

Tractor Supply is a solid retailer which is expecting earnings per share of $4.43 for 2013 and $5.18 per share for 2014. Analyst have 13 strong buy and 3 buy recommendations on the stock. The company has had 5 year sales growth of 11.01% and has had a bold 5 year earnings growth of 49.50%. Currently long term earnings growth is projected at 17.90%

TSCO has generated a 1 Year Total Return of 23.38% and a 3 year Total Return of 312.78% . I would take that return all day and all year. If you buy the stock maybe they will send you one of these fun trucks pictured.

So you are wondering what the second "Value" stock is?
How about Apple Computer (Symbol AAPL, $453.62.). This thing is going to churn around a while up and down in a range. But when the dust clears, presto-chango, AAPL goes from the momentum stock camp to the value stock category with a new group of investors and starts its slow ascent back up in price.  Down in this price range here are the numbers on this stock. First, my standard measure, the Return on Equity for AAPL is 37.96% and the PEG ratio is 0.49. These are great numbers. 

  Here are some other numbers on the stock that will probably not repeat going forward.
5 year sales growth of 76.04%. 5 year earnings growth of 144.7%.  A PE ratio of 10.19 for Apple Computer!

The One year Total Return right now is (-1.32%) because of the recent contraction in price. The 3 Year Total Return is 132.08%. 

It even pays a dividend currently of 2.34%.

These guys still have great products being delivered and more new technologies on the way including more smartphone models, Apple I -TV and the streaming content market which is a hot area. 

Earnings for 2013 will be $44.45 per share an $50.73  per share for 2014. Those are big numbers. 

Here are the sales numbers for 2012. Sales 156.5 Billion dollars. Gross Profit 68.6 Billion dollars. 2012 Net Profit was 41.7 Billion.

Analyst have proclaimed 39 Strong Buy recommendations and 3 Overweight recommendations on the stock.

I just wanted to put down all these numbers so that people could see them in print to realize the potential of this company. You may not return 100% a year going forward but I think you will easily return 25-30% on your investment once we get out of this price churn period. Another words, a good 1 year to 3 year investment.

So pick these stocks up in small increments and Show Me the Money!       


Freewilly

"I saw that Coach had a little bit of an off quarter and I started wondering why. It may be because of the rise of their competitor Michael Kors Holdings Ltd."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,895.98 (UP ) Week ending 01-25-2013

Headline: "Coach Inc. was profitable and missed Wall Street’s expectations, AND came up short on beating the revenue expectation. "

I saw this headline last week and I started wondering if this was some kind of symptom of some new competition to their business?, or just a blip on the radar. I started looking around at companies in their space and came upon "MK"

..... a thinking Michael Kors

Michael Kors Holdings LTD. (Symbol KORS, $58.08) is a company on the move. It fits well within my investment criteria with a PEG ratio of 0.67 and a Return on Equity of 33.26. These are my guidelines to judge price safety compared to growth and return on the money they are investing as a measure of financial health of the company.

I checked out KORS in the IBD paper and it had a SmartSelect rating number of "99", which is as good as it gets. Smartmoney says that there are 12 analyst with a"buy" recommendations on the stock.



Michael Kors is projecting 2013 earnings per share of $1.58 per share and 2014 earnings of $2.04.
The revenue has increased in all 3 quarters that this stock has reported, so maybe you can get in early on this stock's rise. I am always looking for the next "Ralph Lauren", which has performed great over the last 3 years.

The long term earnings on KORS is projecting out at 52.25%.
The 12 month Return on the stock is 94.57% , so if you were in,  you doubled your money. 

I would say that you can pick this one up anywhere along the way here. It may correct, but certainly would bounce back quickly.

Today is my 59th Birthday. I looked out the window where I write my blog this morning and saw a beautiful Red Fox sitting around by my bird feeder. Then he headed for the creek down below our yard.  Funny to see him in full daylight, but I think he was coming to wish me a Happy Birthday! 

Freewilly

"Infrastructure. Can't live without it. Always need more of it. Mastec is the company that builds it."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,649.70 (Up and a 5 year high) - Week ending 01-19-2013

Each year our population rises and demand on the services provided by of our infrastructure continues to  increase. Electricity, Water, Gas, Sewers, Communications and all the delivery systems  that provide essential services to people must be expanded, improved and repaired to keep up with demand. One company that fills all these needs is a company called MasTec Inc.  

MasTec Inc. (Symbol MTZ, $26.85 ) is a company that does all these things.

Return on Equity 14.48 and PEG ratio 0.86.
(ROE is slightly below my 15.00 minimum requirement rule, so a slight bit of speculation here, but I wouldn't lose sleep over it.)

MasTec is described in it's profile on CBS MarketWatch as " an infrastructure construction company. The company is engaged in designing, building, installing and maintaining infrastructures which include the engineering, building, installation, maintenance and upgrade of energy, communication and utility infrastructure, such as electrical utility transmission and distribution, natural gas and petroleum pipeline infrastructure, wireless, wire line and satellite communications, wind farms, solar farms and other renewable energy, natural gas and petroleum pipeline infrastructure, wireless, wire line and satellite communications, industrial infrastructure and water and sewer systems. Its customers are primarily in the utility, communications and government industries." 

Earnings per share for Mastec for 2012 are looking like $1.47-$1.49. For 2013, they are projecting $1.89 per share. The One Year total return on the stock is 47.85%. The 3 year return is 108.9 percent , so this stock has done well.  The 5 year average sales has bee 37.99%. The one year earnings growth has been 48.4% , but the five year rate -246%, so earnings have not shown consistency. I think you can take up a position in this stock right here when the market opens on Tuesday.

Things should get off to a fast start this week with Apple and Google reporting earnings. These two stocks were the mainstay holding of allot of mutual funds in 2012 and could be a bell-weather of where we go from here. Also reporting will be IBM, 3M Company , Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson. 



The markets are closed tomorrow for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday so we will have a short trading week. So if you are able do something good, help someone in need this week. It could even be your older neighbor next-door, they always need help with something.  

Leave me a comment with your favorite stock and we can look at it together.

Freewilly

"The Canary in the Coal Mine for detecting a Bull Market can usually be found in the Chemical stock Sector. Let's take a look."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,488.43 (UP) Week ending 01-11-2013

Going back to some "Old School" thinking , one early indicator in the beginnings of a Bull Market was to look at a rise in Chemicals Sector stocks as an early indicator to detect an uptick in economic activity.So this week I decided to take a look at 4 chemical company stocks.

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Cl A (Symbol LYB) ,

Cytec Industries Inc. (Symbol CYT) 

Eastman Chemical Co. (Symbol EMN) 

PPG Industries Inc. (Symbol PPG) 

So what can we gleen about the state of the bull market from these four? Well for one thing, the One Year and the 3 Year performances of these stocks has been stellar already.

Here they are:
(Stats from Smartmoney.com)

LYB -  1Yr - Up 64.38%      2.1Yr. -Up 173.3%
CYT -  1Yr. - Up 48.17%      3 Yr. - Up 86.59%
EMN - 1Yr. - Up 56.56%     3 Yr. - Up 152.82%
PPG -  1 Yr. - Up 63%          3 Yr. - Up 142.25%

Two of these stocks qualify for my criteria to purchase of being below a PEG ratio of 1.50 and have a Return On Equity above 15%. Those are LyondellBasell & Eastman. 

PPG has a PEG ratio that is too high right now, so you need to wait for it to come in a little bit, but it is an excellent company.


Cytec has improved there product mix with higher margin products and will have a big run up in earnings. Their Return on Equity is a little light right now, but I would put this one on your watchlist. 

So I would say from our Canary analysis that the bull market is well on its way already. You might want to add LYB or EMN into your diversified portfolio.

 My preference would be Eastman Chemical , Symbol EMN)  because of it's quarterly year over year revenue increases and consistent dividend. 

So keep an eye on all 4 of these stocks to keep a barometer on this slow moving bull market.

Freewilly

"The next 50 days in the stock market could seem like a visit to Harry Potter's "The Deathly Hallows". Scary"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,435.21  (UP) Week ending 01-03-2013

Whoa Nellie. If you feel like your portfolio has death-eaters and dementors swirling around it and dark clouds with skeleton heads appearing in them and looming over you, YOU are not alone. You are currently living through our version of Harry Potter's "The Deathly Hallows" with the government hitting Debt Ceiling limits, Run Away Government spending, and with leaders that have just raised your social security taxes 2% and that want to raise your taxes another trillion dollars. Oh and if that's not enough, the US Government is going to stop "Twist" and other artificial manipulations like buying up the surplus treasury bonds when issued, so interest rates will be surely be going up. Talk about uncertainty. 55 days or so from now we get to face Fiscal Cliff 2, (the postponed appointment with Fiscal Cliff 1 !)  

A scary place to be right now. So it may be a good time to get your financial house in order, and sell off some stocks that might have question marks on their revenues or earnings. You can carefully pick up on stocks that you know will bounce back if we do have a temporary downturn. One of these stocks I will mention below and is the subject of this week's blog.

Gilead Sciences Inc. 

(Symbol GILD, $75.72, Split 2:1 - $37.86)

Return on Equity 33.91% PEG Ratio 0.76

Gilead Sciences Inc. is projecting 2012 earnings of $3.84 per share and 2014 earnings of $4.42 per share. GILD has had 5 year sales growth of 20.02% and 5 year earnings growth of 22.37%. The company did 8.46 Billion in sales revenues in 2011 so it is a Mid Cap heading on it's way to becoming a Large Cap stock. I had starting writing this article on Saturday and just finishing now, so the stock has run up a little this week along with Celgene (CELG), so you may need to pick a spot to purchase it. The stock also currently has 21 Strong Buy recommendations and 4 Overweight picks in from analyst. The company has had a 3 year Total Return of 70% with most of that happening this year.

So grab your magic wand and prepare to do battle in 2013, which should be a wild ride with all the government hi-jinx going on. I will try to be on time for this weeks blog.

Keep those spells and potions in hand in case you need them to fend off demons.

Freewilly

"Freewilly's Stockpicker blog, Thirteen for 2013 stock picks. A roundtable of selections with just me at the table picking."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,938.11 (Down) Week ending 12-28-2012

Well, it is that time of year when we whisk together that great alchemy of prognostication that we call the "yearly stock picks".  Barron's does their Round table conversations this time of year with a bunch of the great financial investors of the world who present their ideas and picks for the new year. I have a much smaller cafe table that I work at to make my picks and I am the only one at my table making the picks. So without further ado, here are my top 13 picks to invest in for the new year.

Freewilly’s Stockpicker Blog “13 for 2013”

MasterCard Inc. (Symbol MA)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (Symbol CMG)

Facebook (Symbol FB)

PetSmart Inc. (Symbol PETM)

Whole Foods Markets (WFM)

Davita Healthcare Partners Inc. (Symbol DVA)

Phillip Morris International Inc. (Symbol PM)

Borg Warner Inc. (Symbol BWA)

Scripps Network Interactive Inc. (Symbol SNI)

Anheuser- Busch Inbev SA  (Symbol BUD)

Celgene Inc. (Symbol CELG)

Diageo Inc. (Symbol DEO)

Ebay Inc. (Symbol EBAY)

I think this portfolio has a very "Peter Lynch" flavor to it. There are a lot of high dollar trading stocks, yet these stocks seem to me to all be undervalued based on their growth.  These are stocks that have a good outlook for the next 1 to 3 years and I feel will give you the best return with no downside surprises. I think there will be many downside surprises in 2013 from all the changes that the government is making. In that sense, my picks are really defensive, because they are defended by their growth.  I think many slow growth/ high dividend stocks that have done well in 2012, will be under pressure in the new year and sell off. They seem to be trading at higher PE's than is sustainable for those type of stocks.

I also have some stocks that get honorable mention for 2013, buy could not break into the list above, and will not be counted in my tally at the end of 2013. Apple (AAPL) , Microsoft (MSFT), Nissan Motors (NSANY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Yahoo (YHOO), Panera Bread (PNRA) , and Nam Tai Electronics (NTE). 

So get together with your friends and discuss them while your drinking your toast on New Year's Eve and then comment on the blog and offer other better ideas if you have them. (No Penny stocks please, we don't buy them at anytime!). See you on the other side, in 2013.

Freewilly

"Time to review this past year's "12 for 2012" picks, to see how I did with my stock picks"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,190 (Down) Week ending 12-21-2012

Well, it is that time of year when we look to see how my 2012 "12 for 2012 stock picks" performed for this year. Many of these prices have moved quite a bit just in this last week.  YTD stats, I am taking off of the CNBC quote website. I will list them by best to worst in performance:

Lululemon (LULU)  -                    Up 61.81 %
PPG Industries Inc. (PPG) -         Up 61.80 %
Goldman Sachs  (GS)  -                Up 36.03 %
Cummins Inc. (CMI) -                  Up 22.60 %
Seadrill Inc. (SDRL) -                  Up 11.95 %
J. M. Smucker Co.  -                    Up 10.33 %
Stanley,Black& Decker (SWK)- Up  8.10 %
CSX Railroad -   (CSX)                Down (-5.41) %   
Potash Inc. (POT)                         Down (-6.31) %
Freeport McMoran (FCX)           Down (-12.55) %
Alcatel Lucent (ALU)                   Down (-15.34) %

 So if you had purchased this portfolio of 12 stocks, in equal weights of shares, you would have been up 14.42% for the year, and that does not include dividends, which would have brought you up to a 15 -16% return.  Not to bad, but I will try to improve on this next year 2013.

If you are a reader of my blog, I hope in 2013 that you will ask more questions and post more comments, good or bad on my blog. 
We can learn from each other. I do not make money from this blog. (I have a few Amazon links down the bottom of the page that I have made $1.62 cents on, yet to be paid,  because you have to get up to $10.00 before they will pay you!). 

I do this blog to help people with making stock investments. I make money by investing in my ideas. Too many times I talk to people locally and I hear of them putting money into speculative stocks priced under $5, thinking that they are investing. Speculation is Speculation, but it is not investing. It is the same as going to a casino or playing the lottery, but it is NOT INVESTING!  If there is one thing you take away from this blog, it is that buying things like penny stocks is speculation, and it is not investing for your future. Investments take time, and should be made in businesses that are growing and that will continue to grow for the next 3 -5 years. 

 Freewilly (a.k.a David Wilson)

I want to take this moment to thank my wife Deborah (picture left), for all her support with Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog, and to my daughter and Editor , Molly, (picture right), who just loves fixing all my fragmented sentences.
I most of all I want to thank my readers from all over the world, for tuning in every once in a while.

 From our family to yours, we wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New year.

Freewilly


Thanks for stopping by and reading. My 2013 picks should be coming soon in
Blog #163.

"Follow the Yellow Brick Road to the Emerald City. You might not find the wizard there, but you will find a company stock, (ORCL), with tremendous revenues"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,135.01 (Down) Week ending 12-14-2012

There is a company that had the same sales and earnings dollar numbers this year as the company Google, (whose stock trades at $700.00), and yet if you follow the yellow brick road to the Emerald City, which is the headquarters of this other company , you can buy their stock for only $31.96 for a share.  Sound interesting?  The company is: 

Oracle Corp. (Symbol ORCL,$31.96)  Return on Equity 23.88% and PEG Ratio 1.01

Oracle 2012 sales $37,121 mil, (Google $37,862 mil), and Oracle Net 2012 earnings were $10,100 mil, (Google $9,737 mil). Pretty strange huh? 

Oracle Corp. is projecting 2013 earnings per share of $2.66 per share and 2014 of $2.91 per share. Oracle is only growing at half the pace that Google is growing, but still had 5 years sales growth of 13.10 % and 5 year earnings growth of 17.11%. 

Here is a really amazing stat. The 3 year total return on Oracle Corp. is 34.70% and is actually higher than Goggle's 3 year Total Return. 

I think Oracle gives you a nice safe way to get a very good return on your investment. 

Oracle is also going to benefit with the building of the infrastructure of the ObamaCare program.. ORCL is a subcontractor to help build the database software for state exchanges to facilitate the deployment of the program.

So you won't need a wizard to come from behind a curtain to give you a brain like the scarecrow to make some money.. Sometimes we look for some obscure stock to try to make money when we really need just to look at the stocks that are right in front of us.

                                                       Hopefully the Wizard will be ready with a hot air balloon for us so that we have some way to traverse over the Fiscal Cliff and get back to Kansas. 

The Wizard and Dorothy say Buy some Oracle Corp. !     Freewilly

"Fiscal Cliff, ObamaCare, Alternative Minimum Tax, Mayan apocalypse, Governments broke, Unemployment, it's all enough to drive you to drink, and drink they do"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,151.13 (UP)  Week ending 12-07-2012

“In wine there is wisdom, in beer there is Freedom, in water there is bacteria.” 
― Benjamin Franklin

“Here's to alcohol, the rose colored glasses of life.” 
― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Beautiful and Damned

Oh, will we ever make it through the next 6 months, or in the case of the Mayan calender and the pending apocalypse, the next 14 days? We can't predict what events will take place. What we can predict though is that in all cases, people will be drinking.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger love beverage stocks because they are great machines that generate a lot of cash.

The first stock I want to look at can also generate a great Black & Tan beer combo.

Diageo PLC ADS (Symbol DEO, $120.45)  Return on Equity 39.06%  PEG Ratio 1.47

You can see in the picture above that Diageo makes some of the great drinks of the world. DEO just squeezed in under my PEG ratio limit of 1.50 and is a little rich here but well worth it. 2013 fiscal year earnings are projected at $6.59 per share and for June 2014, $7.35 per share. Diageo, based in London, UK., has a 5 year average sales gain of 6.61% annually and 5 year earnings growth of 6.29% , not earth shattering but steady numbers. 

Projected Long-term EPS is 12.57%.

The really nice holiday cheer in this stock is the 12 Month total return of the stock of 41.17% and a 3 year total return of 87.09%.  (That will buy you a bunch of Captain Morgan Rum, Aye.)

Well, now I am off to my next pick which is:  

Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V. ADS (Symbol BUD, $87.75)  Return on Equity of 19.33% and PEG ratio of 1.25

BUD, the great American icon of beer and beer advertising, has had 5 years sales growth of 18.65%. Budweiser has merged together with dutch brewer InBev N.V. , and has continued their dominance of the US beer market. 2012 earnings are projected at $4.63 per share and 2013 earnings of $5.08. The projected long-term EPS for the company is forecasted at a very healthy 14.73%. 2011 yearly revenue sales were 28 billion for the company and looks like it will be $31-32 Billion for 2012. 

In-Bev N.V. has quickly been paying off the debt burden it took on to buy Anheuser-Busch , and the balance sheet seems to be in good shape and manageable. The most important thing though is that the 12 month total return on the stock is 47.93% and the 3 year Total return on the stock has been 72.40%. 

Both of these stocks can be purchased here and tucked away for next year.

 Two other beverage stocks you could also look at are Boston Beer Company (Symbol SAM) and Coca Cola (Symbol KO).

So don't end up like this guy on the E-Trade commercial with the surprised baby, trying to win your retirement with lottery tickets, (one of my favorite commercials by the way). Instead, buy some cash generating beverage stocks and keep them in your stock portfolio.

Freewilly

"Get ready to take some small bites of Chipotle Mexican Grill (symbol CMG) with some pinto beans (with a little bacon), and guacamole. Buy 5 and 10 shares at a time and average in"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13025.58 (UP) Week ending 11-30-2012

Good evening. I'm Freewilly and this is "Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog" , Welcome back. "Just remember, It's just your money. It's not your life. The figures on a broker's report mean little compared to that. The people who loved you a week ago still love you today." 

Sound familiar? It's an introduction from Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week". I probably should have saved it for a January 2013 blog for when we dive over the Fiscal Cliff like Bill Murray and that groundhog in the movie, or Thelma and Louise. The compromise offered so far by the administration has been laughable and has gone in the opposite direction from compromise. The good news is that it is propelling a lot of company declared December special dividends which can be seen at this link put together by 24/7 Wall Street : "Special December dividends"  . You might want to grab one of these to get the dividend.

But, on we go to the current topic. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (Symbol CMG, $263.78) is a dynamic growth company that only has 31.5 Million shares outstanding.  It has a Return on Equity of 23.70% and a PEG ratio of 1.21. The stock is actually down 18 or 19% this year so it has consolidated its gains and gives you a good entry point to start accumulating it.  I suggest buying it at 5 to 10 shares at a time to build a position over time.

5 year sales growth here has been 21.80% and the 5 year earnings growth has been a rollicking 43.55%. With 2.3 Billion in sales this company is a Mid-Cap, just in it's infancy stage. The three year Total Return on the stock has been 211%, so you had to have a little cooling off phase after such a big run up. 

Every time I go by one of their restaurants the lines are packed.
They seem to have three things going for them. The food is very good. The food is very affordable, with an average price at $6.84. Third, they move people through the line very quickly with an assembly line method. (Henry Ford would have liked it).  

..... and they have fun there!  I can see this stock being a 5 or 6 bagger from here. If Peter Lynch was still around running Magellan, it would be in his portfolio for sure.

So, start grabbing up some CMG shares in small bites, and grab your special dividends and your parachute and prepare to be ready to go over the cliff. It could be 8 weeks before you land on the ground. That is not me skydiving!

and so December trading begins ......       Freewilly    .... Catch you next week.