"On Summer Break - see you back in September with some good picks"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,464.00 (UP) Week ending 07-12-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,543.74 (UP) Week ending 07-19-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,558.83 (UP) Week ending 07-26-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,658.36 (UP) Week ending 08-02-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,425.51 (Down) Week ending 08-09-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,081.47 (Down) Week ending 08-16-2013

On BREAK.  

  








See you in early September, 

Freewilly 

"Robbie Robertson of The Band turned 70 this week! I had to find a stock that would hold up as well as it aged. Had to go with WD-40 (WDFC)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,135.84 (UP) Week ending 07-05-2013

Some things just hold up very well over time. One such thing is the music of 
The Band, which is just timeless. Levon Helm and Rick Danko are gone now and Robbie Robertson turned 70 this week. So to celebrate I watched ,"The Last Waltz", the DVD which celebrates The Band starting with "the hawk," Ronnie Hawkins, passing by Muddy Waters, Joni Mitchell, Neil Diamond and the times on Tin Pan Alley, Eric Clapton, Van Morrison and then on of course to the voice of time itself, mister Bobby Dylan. 

So in order to keep up the reverence for the "tried and true" and come up with something in the atmosphere of the stock market that would hold a candle to a similar test of time, I needed to turn to the stock which is more dependable than duct tape and the Phillips screw driver, that is, I had to go with WDFC, which of course is the very well known brand,

WD-40 Company (Symbol WDFC, $57.78) 

Here is CNBC's description of the company: "WD-40 Company is a global consumer products company dedicated to delivering solutions for a range of maintenance needs of doer and on-the-job users. As of August 31, 2012, the Company's products included WD-40 Smart Straw, WD-40 Trigger Pro, 3-IN-ONE Professional Garage Door Lube, Spot Shot Pet Clean which is a non-aerosol Spot Shot trigger product, Blue Works product line, and a mildew stain remover under the X-14 brand. In addition, its WD-40 Speciality product line, consists of certain specialty maintenance products. The Company's three geographical segments are: the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific. During the fiscal year ended August 31, 2012, the Company formed WD-40 Bike Company LLC, focused on the development of a line of bicycle maintenance products for cyclists and mechanics."

I started writing this blog last week and WD-40 has already reporting earnings this week and did well. The stock shot up into the 60s then backed off by the end of the week.

WDFC has a Return on Equity of 21.3% and a PEG ratio of 2.38. The PEG ratio is a little rich, but there are only 15.47 Million shares outstanding of the stock, so a very small float.  The forward PE is 22.48.

The company has tremendous "tried and true" brand recognition on which it is hard to put a measure of financial value.

WD-40 has Zero long term debt. It pays a dividend annually equivalent to 2.10%. The Current ratio of assets to liabilities is 1.78.

2013 earnings per share is looking like $2.39 per share and for 2014 earnings per share looks like $2.61. 

Revenues last year were 353.58 Million $. The newly formed  WD-40 Bike Company should add into revenues with the ever growing promotion in media and popularity of the Tour De France and Amgen bike races.

The addition of WDFC to your portfolio should "lube up" your way to bigger annual stock gains. I like the stock as a stable 2-3 year investment that should give you a slow but steady gain.

Here is the link to the WD-40 earnings report on CBS MarketWatch: WD-40-company-reports-third-quarter-2013-sales-and-earnings   It was a report that made the WD-40 girl smile. 

So since I can't seem to catch up, I am going to take a summer break and start up again in Early September.  A well deserved break I might add.  I think we have had a good year so far.

Catch you later,    Freewilly

"Time to take a mid-year look at one of my 13 for 2013 stocks: Whole Foods Markets"

Dow Jones  Industrial Average 14,910  (UP)  Week ending 06-28-2013

So how am I doing with one of my picks?

Whole Foods Markets Inc. (Symbol WFM, $52.94 ) (had a 2 for 1 split this year in shares of the stock.)

Well so far for the 6 months I have had it, the stock moved from $44.5 to $52.94, or about 18%, plus a 0.80% dividend, so not so bad. I don't think that they will increase to much in the second half of the year and will probably end up with a 25% annual gain, so a very nice return for the year on your invested capital.

The company will be approaching 12 Billion in annual revenues. The Return on Equity is 14.61%,  a very nice return in a traditionally low profit business, and the PEG Ratio is 2.03.  The 3 to 5 year earnings growth rate has been 50.1%. The forward PE on the stock is 30.8.

The Current Ratio of the company, (Total Assets to Total Liabilities), is 3.62 to 1. Quarter over Quarter Revenue Growth has been 13.4%

2013 earnings per share is projected at $1.45 per share and in 2014 it looks like $1.72 per share.

The trends for eating healthy and simply more interesting foods will continue to favor Whole Foods Markets Inc.  Their unique concepts of having a pub microbrewery in house with the market and their rooftop Taco and Mexican food truck/stand create an entertainment experience found nowhere else.  Also, their very strict standards for exceptional respect for what is truly organic foods provides a very consistent quality throughout the stores. The company is expanding the annual number of new stores at a pace consistent to maintaining its overall high standards.

So step up and place your order for some shares in Whole Foods Markets Inc. (WFM).

"Whole Foods, Whole People, Whole Planet."            Freewilly  

"Are we there yet? Are we there yet on the end of the slide in Gold, Silver, and Copper? Well if we're not, then we are pretty darn close. Close enough to buy FCX and SLW"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 14.799.40  (That is not a typo, Way DOWN) Week ending 06-21-2013

Bart Simpson: "Are we there Yet?",  Homer Simpson:"No!"  
But in the case of Freeport McMoran (Symbol FCX) and Silver Wheaton (Symbol SLW), you can start to accumulate some positions in their stocks. 

Remember, my blog's tenet is to look for 1 year to 3 year investments. These investments mentioned above will experience turbulence over the next 6 months, but I think a lot of the speculators have been rung out of the market. 
Also with all the quantitative easing liquidity pumped into the market, there is no doubt that commodity inflation is bound to be in our future.

Freeport -McMoRan Copper & Gold (Symbol FCX , $27.61)

is also diversified with owning two oil exploration companies. They currently pay right up front a 4.53% dividend.  Freeport-McMoRan is projecting 2013 earnings of $3.05 per share and 2014 is looking like $3.82 per share. Last year, the company had revenues of almost 18 Billion dollars for the year. 

The Return on Equity is 18.48% and the PEG ratio is 0.68, so this is a perfect pick by my parameters. The forward PE is a low 7.54.  Even if you have some short term hits on earnings in the stock for a couple of quarters, this one is a long term winner.




Silver Wheaton (Symbol SLW, $19.67) is your silver pick. Silver Wheaton Corp. is a precious metal streaming company. It is engaged in the exploration of silver and gold. The company explores silver through the Luismin, 
Zinkgruvan, Yauliyacu, Peñasquito, Cozamin, Barrick and Other mines and the silver and gold 
through the Minto mine and corporate operations. Its subsidiaries include Silver Wheaton 
Caymans Ltd. and Silverstone Resources Barbados Corp. 


SLW pays a 2.4% dividend up front. The Return on Equity is 20.21% and the PEG Ratio is 0.63, so very fine numbers. The company had revenues last year of 856 Million dollars with Gross profit margins of 66.88%.

2013 Earnings are looking like $1.50 per share and for 2014, should be around $1.62 per share. The forward PE is 11.19. Good time to put some silver in your portfolio.
The key to silver is that it is used commercially for electronics and that there is limited future supply. Buy some FCX and SLW in small parcels and build a position.

Bart says, "Count your chickens as they hatch." 

Freewilly says, "You need to have a carton of eggs in hand first and then you will surely end up with chickens."

Freewilly

"If you can't beat this wild VIX, then maybe you should buy the VIX. Own shares in the CBOE Chicago Board Options Exchange."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,070.18 (Down) Week ending 06-14-2013

They say if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Well, you can actually buy shares in the institution that generates the index for the VIX. Have no fear! Buy the CBOE , Chicago Board Options Exchange, which trades as a stock itself.

Wikipedia says, "VIX is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period."

CBOE Holdings, Inc. (Symbol CBOE, $42.61)

Return on Equity 65.76% and PEG Ratio 1.63  

Zero Debt and a 1.4% Dividend. 

A "Freewilly Type" investment with these four attributes.

Earnings per share for 2013 will be $1.97 and for 2014 looking like $2.27 per share.

With a Current Ratio of 4:1, this holding company is in great financial shape.

Commodities are a hot number that will never go away, so you will be able to bank on this now and in the future without any of that FEAR that the CBOE measures.


So, go ahead and grab some shares, and sleep soundly at night.

                               Freewilly

"Who's the guy that is making recommendations that you buy stock in the face of these chilling 100 point DOW drop off days? Oh that would be me. BUY- Standard Motor Products Inc. (symbol SMP)."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,248.12 (UP)  Week ending 06-07-2013

I have been running behind by a week for the last few weeks. The time demands of the garden and family take over this time of year and you are always trying to catch up, but living is what it is all about, so you blog when and where you can.
     When things get dicey in the stock market, you can always go to one safe haven to buy stocks that will go up over time.  I am talking about - Auto Parts and Parts company stocks.  Names like AutoZone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Gentherm Inc., Precision Cast Parts, Borg Warner, American Axle, Manufacturing Holdings Inc. and Genuine Parts Company have performed very well in the long term,  no matter what the stock market is doing in the short term.

So that brings us to today's pick:

Standard Motor Products Inc. (Symbol SMP, $ 34.42)

Standard makes all kinds of widgets for your car and truck. Engine, Ignition and Emission are their primary focus areas. SMP has a Return on Equity of 15.73% and has a PEG Ratio 1.22. My stats are coming from Yahoo Finance now because Smartmoney has shut down that section and forwarded you to MarketWatch. Not very helpful, folks.

SMP is projecting 2013 earnings per share of $2.28 and the 2014 is forecasted at $2.53 per share. The forward PE on the stock is 13.6.
Revenues for the company this year 2013 are looking like 995 Million dollars. The company has Zero Debt, which is always a nice feature. There are 23 Million Shares of the stock in total.

Year over Year Earnings growth has been 81.82%.
Gross Profit Margins have run 35.22%. 
The company pays a 1.28% dividend currently.
The one year Total Return on the stock has been 174.92 % 
but I do not expect it to be anywhere near as high next year, but still good.

So, when the VIX starts running wild, with sudden and dramatic shifts in the stock market landscape, you will be safe and happy with another one of the successful parts stocks companies that seem to always do well over the long term.

Buy SMP for a 3 -5 year investment in your portfolio.

Thanks and enjoy your weekend. Now I need to find a subject for this week's blog and maybe I will finally catch up!

Freewilly

"I stopped by the front steps of a vintage famous banker's home from the golden age of banking for inspiration to come up with a great bank stock for you. The spirits lead me to M & T Bank (Symbol MTB)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15115.57 (Down) Week ending 05-31-2013

(Photo by Hillary Glenn) 

In the grand days of banking, Anthony Drexel, Junius Morgan and J. Pierpont Morgan teamed up into an international colossus of a banking company, Drexel & Company and J.P. Morgan & Company. One man who started as a clerk at this firm, who was always the first one to arrive at work each day, and who eventually worked his way all the way up to Senior operating partner, was Edward T. Stotesbury. 

The portico columns to the left above were the front entrance to E.T. Stotesbury's multi-million dollar estate, Whitemarsh Hall, which was built from 1916 to 1921 , designed by famed architect Horace Trumbauer and was known as the "Versailles of America."

Whitemarsh Hall - Home of E.T. Stotesbury

At his peak of wealth in the 1920s, E.T. Stotesbury was worth over 100 Million dollars, first from banking and later in the traction and railroad transportation business. The 147 room estate is gone now, but there are relics of the old estate all over the 300-acre parcel in Springfield, Montgomery County in PA and, I dare say, a lingering "spirit of E.T." around the grounds. 

I am lucky enough to live within a mile of this grand display. I stopped by with family yesterday and stood at these steps and pictured the majestic estate in my mind. 

Will Rogers, Henry Ford, J.P. Morgan, General Douglas MacArthur and many U.S. Presidents and Crown Princes have all stood at the front door below these columns.

Jim Cramer, the famed financial guru from the CNBC business show Mad Money and the Street.com, grew up with his house basically in the front yard of this grand estate. At some point, I want to ask Jim if this estate was an inspiration for him and what spirited him to his voracious appetite for all things financial. 

My nephews, Edward Zwicker and Charles Zwicker, were certainly inspired by E.T. They wrote the Images of America Arcadia book,  Whitemarsh Hall - The Estate of Edward T. Stotesbury, (see link), which can really give you the full story of this palatial estate. 

The spirit of the conservative and frugal E.T., (his second wife Eva spent all the money), directed me to a bank chock full of earnings and a bank that has a nice dividend.


M & T Bank Corp. (Symbol MTB, $102.68)

M & T Bank pays a dividend yield of 2.73% annually. It has a Return on Equity of 11.27% and a PEG Ratio of 0.97, so pretty good numbers. 2013 earnings per share are looking like $8.20 per share and the 2014 numbers look like $8.77 per share. 

The 5 year earnings growth has been 10.14% annually. The 1 Year Total Return is 29.84% and the 3 Year Total Return has been 36.64% , so a good solid performer for your portfolio. The forward PE on the stock is 12.5

Operating Margins are 36.64% and Net Margins are 22.67%. The company has an Enterprise Value of $133.57 per share. 

In these turbulent markets, you need some mooring and consistency. MTB can provide this for you and your portfolio.


So keep your cool and hang in there...........    

Freewilly
                                  

"Boldly going where no man has gone before, Biotech Stocks. ( At least us fundamental guys don't go there.)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,303.10  (Down) Week Ending 05-24-2013

Once upon a time, there were three Biotech Stocks. One was big, one was medium and one was small. So, I decided to tell you about them on the blog, (which is actually last week's blog), but I will give you the 5-31 prices on these stocks.  

Since time is at a premium , I will give you just some brief snapshots.

And here they are.......

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Symbol JAZZ, $67.97).

This one is a brute with the muscular numbers. Return on Equity of 31.82% and PEG ratio of 0.51. This Dublin, Ireland company with a US HQ in Palo Alto, CA. is projecting 2013 earnings per of $6.15 and 2014 projected earnings of $7.55 per share. 14 Strong buy recommendations. You can buy this one "at will," especially if we get a little correction here. This stock could trade up into the $90-100 area. 

Santarus Inc. (Symbol SNTS, $22.27) 

This one is a smaller version of the beast above. I believe both companies are good long term investments. 

Return on Equity of 47.71% and PEG ratio of 1.02.   4 strong buy recommendations and 1 hold.

$218 Million in Revenues this past year.  2013 earnings per share projected at $0.91 and 2014  earnings of $1.35 per share. I can see this stock moving to the $28.00 to $33.00 area by next year.

The third Biotech stock, my "baby bear," is a speculative name and investment that is only for designated money that could increase or decrease by 50%, in other words speculative, but could also be a very good long term hold, buy it and forget about seed money stock. 

They are developing an oral diabetes treatment that has looked "pretty encouraging;" it is "in late stage clinical investigation".  That's a nice way of saying that the company has much higher expenses at start-up than whatever sales it might have. This is normal for this kind of company. The company is followed by eight investment firms.

MannKind Corp. (Symbol MNKD, $6.66). No gaudy stats here, just faith in a great idea that you hope can come to fruition. Here is what Mannkind's website says:  "Our lead investigational product candidate, AFREZZA^® (pronounced uh-FREZZ-uh) ,

is a novel, ultra rapid-acting mealtime insulin therapy being studied for the treatment of adult patients with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mellitus for the control of hyperglycemia." 

The company does have a nice chart:  Mannkind Stock Chart

That's all I got on the biotechs, (unless you want to take a flyer on DNDN, Dendreon at $3.99 per share), for some more speculation, but not with the kid's college money.

Freewilly

"It is the glory days in Pennsylvania once again. As the Marcellus Shale moves ahead in the northern tier with tremendous Natural Gas production, a little farther south, in the Lehigh Valley, you have Air Products and Chemicals poised to bring Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology to the big stage."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,354  (UP , and once again ALL-Time High) week ending 05-17-2013

Not since the glory days of the Pennsylvania Railroad has the State of Pennsylvania had such a dominant position in any one economic sector. This time it is ENERGY. I didn't see it at first. I was not thinking about anything but Natural Gas, that will shortly dominate the energy scene in 2014-2015. 

But, there is another energy source right here in Pennsylvania.  Fuel Cells and Hydrogen fueled crossover automobiles, buses and trucks. The Fuel Cell converts hydrogen to electricity to power electric motors, rather than burning hydrogen in place of gasoline. The country of Iceland has, in large part, already converted to Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology.  Hyundai says it will produce 1,000 ix35 Fuel Cell vehicles by 2015.  

The winner in this is Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (Symbol APD, $94.33)

Oh, you're not feeling Green enough yet?  How about this: Air Products' Solar Farm - Largest Silicon Thin-Film Solar Panel Farm in U.S. . Now, how about some numbers?

Return on Equity 18.67% - PEG Ratio 1.67. The Peg ratio is up a bit because of these recent market runs. Once again, in these rising stock market conditions, you might want to buy on a slight market correction to buy below 1.50 on the Peg Ratio. 

Need a Fill-up on your Space shuttle?

You are looking for Total Return here, so start with a 3.01% dividend to start you off. The one year Total Return on the stock has been 22.08% and the 3 Year Total Return has been 47.85%

You're not going to see any big sales gains in the short term, but these guys are on the right path. Sometimes, there is more to the parts of a company story than is immediately evident in the numbers. 2013 earnings per share are projected to be $5.51 per share. 2014 earnings per share are projected forward to be approximately $6.09 per share. 

So, maybe when you pull up to the fuel service station, you will pick out either Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Diesel or Gasoline. No Nuclear powered vehicles yet, but who knows what will come in the next 10 years?

APD is a good solid cyclical stock for your portfolio that has a very bright future ahead in Energy.

Who knew it would all being going on here in Pennsylvania?? 

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. 

Freewilly                                            

"Everyone wants hardwood floors. So, why wouldn't you own stock in Lumber Liquidators?"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  15,118.49 (UP and all-time HIGH)  Week ending 05-10-2013

It never fails to amaze me when I watch these home and real estate TV shows and the first thing they say when they walk in is, "I love these hardwood floors." Everybody wants them. You could go get them installed by Home Depot or Lowe's, but a better idea is to buy them from the specialists that sell nothing but hardwood floors. 


Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. (Symbol LL, $89.01) 

LL, has a Return on Equity of 24.03% and a PEG ratio of 0.4956 in Y-Charts and 2.28% in Smartmoney. This brings up a good point and that is that when you do your homework and research stocks, you should check multiple sources to get your stats before you go ahead and make a stock purchase. (Make that Rule #7). 

 Lumber Liquidators is projecting earnings per share of $2.43 for 2013 and $2.92 per share for 2014. The company has ZERO Long Term debt and because of its rapid growth, it pays no dividend. 2012 Revenues came in at $856 Million, so it's not even a Mid-Cap stock yet. The PE on the stock is currently 36.77, so you might want to wait for a market correction to buy or just take a small initial position, and then add to it later. However, Quarter year over year earnings were up 96.55% and quarterly gross margin is 40.38%. Hmmm?

The 5 year sales growth of the company has been 13.74% and the 5 year earnings growth rate has been 21.07%. 

Give me carpet with 3/4 inch padding to keep my feet warm in the winter, but if I'm buying stock , give me LL with a one year Total Return of 220.34 % and a 3 Year Total return
of 199.70% and I'll just put on the warm socks!

This is the ideal stock for the Growth segment of your portfolio. Just look to buy in at a good time. 

On another note, Louis Rukeyser is my mentor, but Alan Abelson of Barron's, God rest his soul, was my muse. If I could ever be a tenth as good as him at seeing the stock market and writing about it with such wit, genius and unbridled sarcasm, I would consider myself a great success.  Wall Street has lost a great voice, and I personally will miss him. 

Alan Abelson - Legendary Columnist - Barron's Magazine -"Up and Down  Wall Street"

 Good Night .... Freewilly