"When the MASTER'S Golf Tournament arrives in April, I love to go back and watch the movie, "The Greatest Game Ever Played", that features young amateur golfer Francis Ouimet with his 10 year old caddy Eddie Lowery stunningly winning the 1913 US Golf Open. So what does this have to do with stocks?"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,058 (UP) Week ending 04-10-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Avergae 17,826.30 (Down) Week ending 04-17-2015

Each year in April when the Masters Golf Tournament in Augusta, GA. rolls around with all the great golfers coming in to make their play to win the coveted green jacket, it makes me want to re watch the golf movie, "The Greatest Game Ever Played. 

This movie is based on the 2002, Mark Frost biographical account of Francis Ouimet's 1913 U.S. Open victory titled, "The Greatest Game Ever Played: Harry Vardon, Francis Ouimet, and the Birth of Modern Golf."

The story is about a young caddy Francis Ouimet who decides that he is going to try out to play as an amateur in the 1913 US Golf open near Boston, Massachusetts. "When Francis was four years old, his family purchased a house on Clyde Street in Brookline, directly across from the 17th hole of  The Country Club. The Ouimet family grew up relatively poor and were near the bottom of the economic ladder, which was hardly the position of any American golfer at the time." (Sourced From Wikipedia) . He is pictured above in the movie with his unlikely 10 year old caddy, the spunky Eddie Lowery. True story.

 Harry Vardon, Francis Ouimet, Ted Ray

Well, I will let you watch the movie to see what happens, but I included a picture with Francis and his two top British professional golfer competitors, Harry Vardon and Ted Ray. These were all excellent golfers. Francis Ouimet remained an amateur and become a very successful  businessman.

So what does this have to do with stocks?? 

Well it turns out there was formed by a group of people a Francis Ouimet Caddy Scholarship Fund. 

Well there was this young caddy who applied for this scholarship and was awarded it to study at Boston College.  His name was Peter Lynch.

I was for some reason rereading Peter Lynch's "One Up On Wall Street" last night, and this information jumped off the page at me in stunning fashion. It was as if somebody had led me there to read it. 

His story was similar to story of Francis Ouimet, except for instead of winning the US Open his success was that be became the greatest mutual fund manager of all time, getting a job through his caddying with the Fidelity company in Boston and later running the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977-1990. 

The Fidelity Magellan Fund had a 2510% gain during his tenure as manager. That is the equivalent of golfing a 62 on each day of the golf tournament!! Talk about the butterfly effect!

So if you want to know what stocks might fit Peter Lynch's criteria today to invest in, you can go to WWW.NASDAQ.com and when you look up the symbol of a stock and enter it in, they have in the left-hand column a link called "Guru Analysis". At the top of the list is Peter Lynch's rating based on his criteria. Here are some examples of the stocks screened from Guru Analysis he would like right now:

91% Qualcomm Inc. (symbol QCOM, $67.15)
91% Apple Inc.          (symbol AAPL, $124.75)
91% Honeywell International  (symbol HON, $101.70)
91% Wells Fargo & Company (symbol WFC, $54.05)
91% Kansas City Southern   (symbol KSU, $104.49)
91% US Bancorp  (symbol USB, $42.44)

87% The Middleby Corp. (symbol MIDD, $102.60)
72% Constellation Brands (symbol STZ, $115.98)
72% Icon PLC   (symbol ICLR, $68.98)

So you can see now how Golf and Caddying have had a direct effect on the history of Wall Street investing. (P.S. little Eddie Lowery, the 10 year old caddy, went on to become a multi-millionaire businessman himself, so success all around.)

I would also recommend that you read Peter Lynch's books, "One Up on Wall Street" and also "Beating the Street".

He will tell you that you can be as good at investing as he is if you focus on what you know.

Have a great investment week,

Freewilly

"The endless quest for growth at a reasonable price brings me this week to a quality stock at a decent price. Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (Symbol GMCR)."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,690.41 (Down) Week ending 03-27-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,763.24  (Up) Week ending 04-03-2015

I can always look to the "Beverage" sector if I need to find some growth. I currently own Constellation Brands, (STZ), and have also owned Monster Beverage (MNST), and Boston Beer Company (SAM) and they have  done very well for me. 

So that led me to the single cup coffee, (and tea), company Keurig Green Mountain Inc. (Symbol GMCR, $114.31)  which seems to me to be trading at a slight discount right now and is down from it's high of $156.92.

GMCR has a PEG ratio of 1.71 and a Return on Equity of 17.10. I go into work and use one of these machines everyday and it works well, no wasted coffee.

Keurig Green Mountain had annual revenues in 2014 of $4.71 Billion dollars. The 3 year growth rate in revenues has run 11.43% and this was after one year where they had 50% plus revenue growth, so quite a run.

The company has just signed a partnership deal with privately held Reily Foods down in New Orleans with New England and French Market coffee and Luzianne Ice Tea pods.

A possible catalyst this week for the stock will be when Bed Beth and Beyond announces their earnings report and them discussing a new Keurig single serve Soda machine that they will be selling. (I guess that they are going after the market now held mostly by SodaStream.)

Zack's has a "Hold" rating on the stock and IBD has a earnings rating number of 70. The stock chart has been ugly recently.

Earnings for 2015 are projecting at $4.09 per share and for 2016 they are looking like $4.68.
Long term earnings growth for the company has been 16.25% and the 3 Year earnings growth has been 22.61%. The company operates at Gross Margins of 44.20%.

Financials are good here with the company having a Current Ratio of 2.80 which is excellent.

The company also pays out a dividend yield of 1% to cover your account expenses.

Insider buying is very favorable here and is running around a 5 to 3 ratio of buys to sells by insiders.

The stock has has been drifting down here so as usual I would say to buy 25 shares and see how it goes. If it goes lower add some more.

This is too good a company for this to keep moving down. Growth at a Reasonable price seems to be the key.

I hope you had a great  and wonderful Easter and Passover holiday. 

You can pretty much put anything in a K-Cup!  A simple and great concept. Buy GMCR.

Freewilly

"Snooping around for good values here in the Commodity space,looking at Oil, Nat Gas, Copper and Gold. I found some compelling long term value investments".

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,749.31 (Down) Week ending 03-13-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,128.00    (UP)   Week ending 03-20-2015

Greetings fellow investors. I am going a little off my normal track this week to put on my "Value Investor" hat. These are the stocks where you will need to have "Patience" like your Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, and just buy them and wait for them to fill in for your capital gain and collect the 2.5 to 10% dividend along the way. (So throw out the door PEG and Return on Equity standards, just for this week. You need to free up your mind for long term value.)

 Janet Yellen - Fed Chairman - "Patience/No Patience". I like her multi-colored pen.

 So first up, I decided to channel a little Mario Gabelli and look for a special situation that could pay off.  Regency Energy Partners LP. (Symbol RGP, $23.14) is going to merge with Energy Transfer Partners LP. The proposed merger will give the RGP shareholders $26.89 of value in the ETP stock. (I actually bought this one at $22.11 because, I can think faster than I can type it down on the page). 

Now I am no rocket scientist, but it looks like they are wanting to hand you a 16% gain in capital plus (RGP) is currently yielding 8.69% which will certainly drop lower under current market conditions, say to 3%. So if you buy this you are looking for a 19% return on your investment eventually this year? Seems to make sense to me to buy it here at $23.14.

The next stock I like is Boone Pickens , Mesa Royalty Trust, (Symbol MTR, $19.23). This is a great value here at this price. It is currently yielding 3.5% but normally pays out in the 8-10% dividend yield area. Great balance sheet and they give 90% of the income back to the shareholders. Boone said this week that the Oil market is sorting out its imbalances and expects to see oil back up to $70 a barrel before long.

 The next value that I see here and my broker concurs, (this one was his idea), is Chesapeake Energy Corp. (Symbol CHK, $13.61). This much maligned massive energy company should be due to turn direction. When it does you will own it. Again looking for good 3-5 year total return on your money with limited risk. has a 2.5% dividend yield kicker to boot also. 

 The last great value is a "Two for the price of One". Freeport- McMoran Corp. (Symbol FCX, $18.49 per share).  I think the miner's have stopped blocking the road and have gone back to work this weekend. Hopefully they are giving them a fair pay for their work. This stock gives you a play on Copper, Gold, and also they own two oil companies which in the short term looks like a mistake, (They just got a $7 Million dollar settlement payment from Credit Suisse for advising them to do so), but in the long term you have a lot of value here between all FCX's different properties. The stock has already shot up to $21.00 in the last couple months , then backed off. For an IRA long term account this is perfect. They currently have a 6.79 % dividend yield , but I expect them to drop that down to a 3-4% level for the time being.

There you have it.  Enjoy your second day of Spring, and make some money with some Value type investments. Remember, you must have "Patience" and just tuck these things away for 3 years.

"My Great, Great Grandfather used to own the hotel next to where this statue sits at 25-27 Broadway in the 1800's. It was called "Stevens House" His son. my great grandfather, was in the NY 7th Militia and guarded the Stock Exchange"  Freewilly.

Freewilly

"The current President and Congress refuse to cut corporate taxes and encourage business growth and job growth so we are stuck in this "Stag-covery". 2% does not get it done and Janet Yellen wants to raise interest rates, making our products more expensive to the rest of the world. A bad combo! OMG

Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,132.70  (UP) Week ending 02-27-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,857.00 (Down) Week ending 03-06-2015

The FED and Janet Yellen want you to believe that we have a 5.7% unemployment rate and that we are growing steady at some sort of rising rate and that it requires a FED rate hike. This is simply not the truth.

  There are 229 Million people over the age of 18 in the United States, (not even counting the illegals). 8.7 Million people are looking for work. 6.5 Million have given up and have stopped looking for work. 6.6 Million are under-employed, working part time jobs until they can find something better. So that is really 22 Million of 229 Million people that are really Unemployed or Underemployed, which really equals to a 9.6% unemployment rate. A huge difference!

Without the tax laws being changed, capital and employment continues to flow overseas to other countries. We are in a "Stag-covery" , a word I just coined. 

 The stock market has gone as far as it can go here under the current conditions. I know this because, the number of companies with PEG Ratios under 1.5 and that do not have large debt burdens is somewhat limited right here. (Not to mention all the commodities crashing down in price around us in Deflationary trends.)

We need our US Government to act and to create a growth environment by cutting corporate tax rates which will provide job and wage growth. They also need to restructure and reorganize the Public sector, the government employed and the way they are deployed and the pension obligations created, and make it more effective and efficient to serve the people of the US better for the money that we spend on it. After all, it is our government and we the taxpayers own it.

So I would make no US stock buys here currently! 

"Stag-covery"!

Some names I have been looking at lately, but not buying yet are companies like Google (GOOG) , with it's great balance sheet.

Avnet (AVT) and Arrow Electronics, as kind of plodders that work there way ahead over time. 

I like Cardinal Health a little bit here.

American Express (AXP) looks like it could have some upside here.

I am also looking at Mid-Cap and Healthcare ETF's and mutual funds, but not buying yet.

The problem with all the above named and others is that if you buy them here you have no Margin of Safety. Why take a position that is going to make you start out immediately in the hole?

Sit tight and keep your powder dry is the word for the week. Raise some cash and look for better opportunities ahead.

Hopefully the snow is finally done!

Have a great week,

Freewilly

"I was shopping around for a decent Mid-Cap Healthcare stock. I found a list of 11 from Jim Cramer's "The Street.com" and then I picked the one on that list that I liked best. That stock is ICON PLC, (Symbol ICLR)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,019.35 (UP) Week ending 02-13-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,140.44 (UP) Week ending 02-20-2015

As time passes by, I find myself more and more going to the website of TheStreet.com to find the most accurate and up to date financial information about stocks. So it was no surprise that when I did a Google search for the best Mid Cap Healthcare stocks for 2015, that Jim Cramer's, (Co-Founder), The Street.com popped up to the top of the list with an article with not 1 or 2 but actually 11 different stocks.  The Street.com article on Midcap Healthcare Stocks .   

Nobody works harder to bring more information to light for us retail investors than Jim Cramer. Hands down, the best.

 Really, if you can't find anything to buy you can always lean on Cramer Fav's ,  Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) or Kinder Morgan (KMI) as an anchor in your portfolio.

So which stock did I like the best from The Street's list of Mid Cap Healthcare stocks?

ICON PLC. (Symbol, ICLR, $60.31) is my Oscar winner from the list.

ICON public limited company has a market capitalization of $3.6 Billion.  In general "MID CAP" stocks have a market capitalization of 2 to 10 Billion. Stocks in this area are usually done with all their start-up hiccups and are growing pretty good at this point. Kind of a sweet spot in the growth cycle with more limited risk than the Small Cap's and start ups.

The company has a PEG ratio of 1.31 and a Return on Equity listed at 16.34 in one place and 13.21 in another place, so somewhere in that area. I believe that the company will be reporting earnings on 02-25-15 next week. The IDB earnings rating on the stock is 84th percentile and Zack's has is rated a #1 Strong Buy. The Street.com ranks it an "A".

The 3 year sales growth for the company has been 18% per year. This Dublin , Ireland based provider of contract development services for the pharmaceutical industry has Zero Long Term debt. The company operates at a gross margin of 33.2% and has 61.6 Million Shares outstanding.

  Earnings per share for 2015 are projected at $2.77 per share and for 2016 they look like $3.22 per share with a forward PE of 17.92.

The 1 Year trailing 12 months stock appreciation has been 23.84% and the YTD appreciation is 17.69% so this has been a mover and shaker. The stock is held in institution mutual funds to the tune of 88.9%. 

 So if you are like me and need to add something Mid Cap in your portfolio and also is in the Healthcare area, then ICON PLC , (ICLR is the stock symbol), may be just the ticket for you. 



As always , come in small, (with the the DOW at this high 18,140 level), and buy 25 shares at a time and build a position that fits your comfort level and finds a balance with your other investments. 

Good Luck with all your investments!  

Freewilly

"Time Warner Inc., (Symbol, TWX), has been spinning out non-strategic assets for years. What you have left now is the Filet Mignon of prime media properties"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,416.85 (UP) Week ending 01-30-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,824.00  (UP) Week ending 02-06-2015

Time Warner Inc. (Symbol TWX, $80.38) has been on a mission to hone its assets down to the very best of  media content. Time Warner the 2nd largest media company in the world is essentially made up of Turner Broadcasting, HBO, and Warner Brothers Entertainment's, 3 divisions. 

 The company has a PEG Ratio of 1.38 and a Return on Equity of 16.20%. The current PE on the company is 17.4 It also sports a Dividend yield of 1.6%.   The company will report earnings this week on 2/11/2015.

Speaking of earnings, the EPS growth last quarter was 34%. The EPS % gain for the year is  14%. The 3-5 year growth rate is 14.8%.  Earnings for 2015 are projected at $4.10 per share and for 2016 are looking like $4.66 per share.

Analysts love the stock with 22 Buy recommendations, 3 Outperform, and 8 Hold. The company operate at a 72.50% Gross Margin. Content is King!. Insiders purchasing is all positive.  

What about the price of the stock? In 3 years it has moved from $35.00 per share to $80.00 per share. The One year change in the stock TTM, (Trailing 12 months) has been 31.20 % and the 3 year Total return has been 111.69%.   

This is a good long term investment to add to your portfolio. As always buy in small and build a position over time. I also like content providers Disney, (Symbol DIS),  and LionsGate Entertainment, (Symbol LGF), which is a little higher beta, (more speculative), in the media content provider area.  

         

Freewilly says, to quote a famous Warner Bros. Pig and Duck, "That's All Folks!"

                           

"Automotive Parts stocks in general do pretty well in the stock market. Here is one that meets all my criteria, Delphi Automotive PLC (Symbol DLPH). Also one Special situation play with the Shake Shack IPO (Symbol SHAK), coming this week."

Dow Jones industrial Average 17,673 (Down) Week ending 01-23-2015

I seem to just love these transport stocks that begin with the letter "D". This one I found as a holding in the Vanguard Midcap Value Index fund as a top 10 holding. My company had just switched over our 401K plans over to Vanguard Funds, so I thought I would go in and take a look around.

Delphi Automotive PLC (Symbol DLPH, $69,67) is a leading global supplier of technologies for automotive and commercial vehicle markets with headquarters in Gillingham, United Kingdom.

Delphi meets my base criteria with flying colors with a Return on Equity of 46.12% and having a PEG Ratio of 0.96. (They were able to produce this fine return on equity number without running up excessive long term debt.)

My favorite thing about the company is that they employ 117,000 people worldwide. We need more companies in the world like that! Another good thing about Delphi is that they are buying back $1.5 Billion dollars of their stock so they are very confident in their future business prospects.

Delphi, (DLPH), has annual Revenue of $17.1 Billion dollars and 1 Year earnings growth has been 10.8% and the 3-5 year current earnings growth forecast is projected to be 12.7%, with a current PE, (Price to Earnings ratio), of 16.14 and a forward PE of 13.71 per share.

Earnings per share for 2015 are projected at $5.05 per share and for 2016 it is looking like $5.64 per share. (per CBS MarketWatch). The company also pays a dividend at a yield rate of 1.4%. I would say that you can go ahead and buy the shares right here and have a margin of safety for a 3 year investment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have a "two for" for you for this week. A SPECIAL situation occurrence and a way to trade it. This is just a fun trade idea. 

The IPO of Shake Shack (Symbol SHAK), comes public this week with 5 Million shares priced at around "$14 to16 dollars". The shares will come public on Friday January 30th.

Unless you are a preferred customer of Goldman or Morgan Stanley you will probably not be able to get in on the subscription for the public offering price. But, I believe that some of the other new restaurant stocks will be carried forward and up on the coattails of this public stock offering and allow you to profit on the offering. 

Here are the two stocks I think you can buy going into this Friday and have a trade:

Zoe's Kitchen Inc. (Symbol ZOES, $30.55) which currently has a 100+ stores and are expanding out to 1600 stores.

Zoe's Kitchen, Inc. operates restaurants. The company operates its business through a single segment, fast casual restaurant serving a distinct menu of fresh, wholesome, Mediterranean-inspired dishes delivered with Southern hospitality. Zoe's Kitchen was founded by Zoë and Marcus Cassimus in 1995 and is headquartered in Plano, TX.

and second :

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (Symbol LOCO, $26.15)

 El Pollo Loco, Inc. develops, franchises, licenses and operates quick-service restaurants under the name El Pollo Loco. The company specialize in flame-grilled chicken in a wide variety of contemporary mexican-influenced entrees, including specialty chicken burritos, chicken quesadillas, chicken tortilla soup, pollo bowls and pollo salads.

 Both of these stocks and also Shake Shack, if you believe in Peter Lynch's idea to buy the simple things you know around you, should be very good long term investments as they expand through the years. 

 

So a trade, or a long term investment, you decide!

 Freewilly

 

"Airline stocks have had a tremendous run. That all happened before the price of Oil dropped by 50%. I like the tail winds that are pushing Delta Airlines, (DAL), forward".

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,737.37 (Down) Week Ending 01-09-2015
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,512.00 (Down) Week Ending 01-16-2015

Well we begin 2015 once again in turbulent waters in the stock market. Your decision making on picking and holding stocks will be challenged each day with wild volatility. So you will need to know the reason you are buying a stock and why you need to remain committed to it, even though all around you the media will be telling you that it all is going to come crashing down. So stick with your fundamentals and rules that you have set for your stock picks, and hold firm.

One on my top stock picks for 2015 is
Delta Airlines Inc.(Symbol DAL, $45.84). Delta meets my base criteria with a PEG Ratio of 0.19 and a Return on Equity of 80.10%. It says the PE ratio is 3.99 but going forward it is more like 10. You are going to hear that December revenues for 2014 were down just like American Airlines, but pay no mind to it. They don't mention that Delta is now competing with Alaska Airlines in the Seattle market, a battle they will win. Below is a map of the routes they run. Their hub is the Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport which is the busiest airport in North America. (Dubai and Heathrow are the world's busiest).

 I have heard one estimate that Delta will save $3 Billion dollars in cost savings if oil stays down where it is now in price. I think that they will save a good part of that with oil settling awhile in the Fifties range. 

 The company did Revenues last year of $39.79 Billion dollars and produced Net Income of $9.85 Billion dollars. They operate at a Gross Margin of 46.4%.

Earnings per share for 2014 were $3.34 per share and for 2015 it is projected at $4.88 per share.The 3 Year earnings growth for the company has been 41%. 

I have seen analysts ratings of 14 Buy -2 Outperform and 2 hold. Also 9 Strong Buy-1 Buy -and 1 Hold on "The Street.com", which is a very good source of data for your own scrutiny and analysis.

The company currently has an IBD earnings rating of 63 and pays out a dividend at the rate of 0.80% , better than a bank account.

So how has the stock done? Year to Date it is down (-6.81%), so you are buying it at a slight discount. The one year change for the trailing 12 months, (TTM) it is up 45.16%. The 3 year Total Return is a gigantic 417.87%. Again, that all took place before the price of oil dropped down.

 Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport 

 So I am recommending that you purchase Delta stock , (DAL) and I believe the stock will end the year in the $60-$65 dollar range.

 "Stay true to your beliefs and your ideas shall guide you through."

Freewilly

"Here are the Freewilly's Stock Picker Blog "15 stocks for 2015". The more stocks, the harder the challenge. But I think I am up to the task."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17832.99 (Down) Week Ending 01-02-2015

The Who song , "We won't get fooled again", comes to mind when I think back about my 2014 blog stock picks.  I guess I was looking for growth at an "Unreasonable" price with some of picks that either tread water or were beat up for non-delivery of immediate gigantic earnings gains. I think that that won't be a problem in 2015, although we are still staying aggressive.

So my picks are again centered around "mostly" stocks with a PEG ratio of less than 1.5 and that have a Return on Equity of 15% plus.

So here is the 2015 list of picks for this year.

1. Walt Disney (Symbol DIS)
2. Delta Airlines (Symbol DAL)
3. Constellation Brands (Symbol  STZ)
4. Johnson and Johnson (Symbol JNJ)
5. Discover Financial Services (Symbol DFS)
6. Tractor Supply (Symbol TSCO)
7. Hershey Foods (Symbol HSY)
8. Oshkosh Corp. (Symbol OSK)
9. Celgene (Symbol CELG)
10. Yahoo (Symbol YHOO)
11. Monster Beverage (Symbol MNST)
12. Dow Chemical (Symbol DOW)
13. Edward Lifesciences (Symbol EW)
14. Foot Locker ( Symbol FL)
15. Southwest Airlines (Symbol LUV)

No Small cap stocks this year. All Mid-Cap and Large cap stocks. A mix of transportation, Health care, Food and Beverage, Media, and a few retail stocks mostly. One common theme is a reduction in commodity cost for many of these companies in 2015. I sifted thorough this list over and over again trying to filter out any stocks that were too speculative. Many of these stocks also pay a nice dividend to add to your gains.

 This is a muscular team with many stock market heavyweights on it. But guess what?
You deserve to have the best investments in your portfolio and nothing less than that.
Yahoo, (YHOO), was included in this group because of it gigantic investment stock holding in Alibaba, (BABA). 

I did my part for the economy yesterday and went out and traded in my old 2001 Nissan Altima for a brand new 2015 Nissan Altima version. Lots of customer loyalty bonus incentive programs going on right now. So I guess I am optimistic about the economy this year. 

Since we have had three years in a row with double digit gains in the market I have put together a portfolio that has a degree of "Risk Off" built into it and that is the best approach to 2015.

I would be remiss not to mention, since my number one pick is Disney this year, the owner of the fantastic ESPN Network, the profound loss and passing of ESPN Sports Center analyst and major company asset Stuart Scott at the age of 49. It was announced this morning after his long bout with cancer. You would have never known it when watching him on TV. 

He had been the latest winner this summer of the Jimmy Valvano ESPY award for courageousness in facing his cancer. If you have never seen the ESPN Jimmy Valvano "30 for 30" episode it is a must see.

If you can live your life like Stuart Scott, you will have no regrets.

Freewilly

 Stuart Scott - ESPN Analyst

"Here is the recap of the 2014 Freewilly Blog Picks. I had 7 Up, 6 Down and 1 Even. 3 sectors underperformed - 3D Printing, Oil/Energy, and Heavy Equipment-Rental "

Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,053.71 (Up) Week Ending 12-26-2014

Well I would have done a lot better if I had sold my 3D Printer stocks, DDD and SSYS, back in August at the peak, when they were on the plus side. That is called hindsight and is not allowed in Annual stock picking. Semiconductors, Oil, and Heavy Equipment Rental were not my friend. So my overall total return for my 14 for 2014 stock picks was (-1.164), a small loss for the year.

Here are the winners:
Hain Celestial (HAIN)      UP 31.84%
Arris (ARRS)                     UP 29.23%
Direct TV  (DTV)              UP  29.17%
Berkshire Hathaway "B"  (BRK.B)   UP 28.27%
Yahoo  (YHOO)                  UP 25.12%
 Nike  (NKE)                        UP 23.64% 

If I had just stuck with this group above I would have been in really good shape!

Maybe the more you are diversified, the lesser is your chance of success? That is what Warren Buffett and George Soros think. Maybe something to look at is "Over-Diversification" as an issue in your investing style.

That brings us to the three stocks in the middle. All monster gain stocks in 2013.


Polaris Industries (PII) Up 5.05%
Google (GOOG)  EVEN  0
Golar Nat Gas Transport (GLNG) (-0.25%)

Apple (AAPL) would have been a much better anchor stock for you in 2014 then Google. That may flip flop around in 2015.

 So much for the GOOD and the BAD, I guess I need to tell you about the UGLY and here they are. ALL would have done much better as 6 month picks rather than 1 Year picks.

So here they are:

3D Systems (DDD)  DOWN (-64.20%)
Cree (CREE)  DOWN  (-48.16%)
Stratasys (SSYS)  Down (-35.64%)
Manitex International (MNTX) Down (-21.02%)
Holly Frontier (HFC) Down (19.35%)

It  is amazing that five little stocks could do so much damage to your annual results. 3D Systems and Stratasys and also Google were pouring money back into their business development, instead of worrying about their short term results. Wall Street had no patience for that. Maybe a little too much hyped expectations . CREE did great growing in their LED lighting business but fell short in their semiconductor business. Manitex fell in sympathy with its sector with Hertz Global and United Rentals going down. They are starting to recover now.
 

 
So what can we glean from the results?

1. Don't own too many stocks. It makes it difficult to be successful.
2. When the hype gets ahead of the results in stocks in new technologies like 3D, head for the sidelines. Don't take excessive risk in your investing.
3. Stocks who are tied to commodities like "Oil" can come down no matter how well the company is doing individually.
 
So next week, I will give you my "15 for 2015" Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog picks.

Happy New Year!        


Freewilly