Saturday, March 21, 2020

The Perfect Storm - Covid 19 - Saudi-Russia oil dispute - Treasury bills - 10Year. - dropping below 1 percent. Just when you thought that you saw everything, now this rolls out

Dow Jones Industrial Averages 19,173.98  WAY >>>Down  - Week ending 03/20/2020
S & P 500  2304.92   

"The Perfect Storm" 
I have seen a lot of stuff over the last 50 years, but nothing ever that looked like this. Whole industries are being shut down for 30, 60 , 90 days, who knows?  New York, California, Pennsylvania shutting down whole states and people sheltering in place. You could never dream up anything like this. Risk tolerance?  That all went out the window. This was soul searching, gut checking survival mode. You better have had a plan coming into this. Value investing with a durable high quality line up of companies both in my 401K and IRA accounts was my plan. Very little in Bonds, safe liquid stuff all in money market instruments. Do not like bonds here. Rather S&P 500 Index funds.

Still in the short term,  I got crushed just like everybody else. As devastating as it all has been, it has been crazy interesting watching the rotations and movements on a daily basis.
New great deals popping up on a hourly basis with big flashing lights saying ,"buy me Now", then poof disappearing from sight. Extraordinary! 

Well right now , just like in the Perfect Storm movie, we are in a little calm spot in the eye of the storm. Maybe half-way, a little more, towards a market bottom. But those 80 foot waves will be back again on Monday, and this thing is all heading down further. Some will lose there nerve and capitulate and sell.  That will not be me or any of my Freewilly Stockpicker Blog followers. We will be be diving for pearls during the storm. 

Here is what to look for as they pop up at great prices:

Nvidia (Symbol NVDA) is like the Hope diamond of stocks. If you can grab 25, 50, 75 shares go ahead and do it as it dives down. 

Facebook, (Symbol FB).  They are stepping in as "lender of last resort" for the small businesses that are their customers. Friggin brilliant!  a Value stock here with lots of cash and growth on the horizon and Instagram. Damn right!

EOG Resources (Symbol EOG) is the "Apple" of the oil industry with a pristine balance sheet. They can make money with $30.00 WTI oil.  They just cut back on $2 Billion of CapEx spending. Hunker down to own this great company in the oil patch. 

Verizon Communications Inc. (Symbol VZ) - A low cost 5G play focused on wireless and has a rock solid dividend of 4.75%.  Use this stock as a bond yield proxy. Super safe.

Oshkosh Corporation (Symbol OSK) These guys have government contracts to build the replacement vehicle for the US Army and Marines that is replacing the Hummer. It is down 40% from its highs.  Consider this one "Shelter from the Storm".

Kinder Morgan Inc. (Symbol KMI)  They threw the baby out with the bath water. Rock solid company, good balance sheet and lots of insider buying. 

There are many more names that will flash up this week. Think long term, Quality, good Return on equity. The world is not going to end this week and you need to eventually retire , right?

 "Sammy Davis Jr. Jr. - (the dog in) - Everything is Illuminated"

Grab the Tums, Rolaids, Mylanta and Coca Cola syrup.  Fasten your seat belt, lock your doors, roll up the sidewalks,  it is going to be a wild ride. You will be fine.  Don't get scared and please do wash your hands and stay clear of this dreadful virus.

We are all in this together,

Peace

Freewilly


1 comment:

  1. Wound up leveling into Verizon myself around 60. Chart on weekly looks like it's ready to clean out the old overhead.

    ReplyDelete