"12 for Twenty~2012~Twelve. What stocks will give you the best total return next year based on fundamentals combined with dividends"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,294 (Down) Week ended 12-23-2011

Well it's time to look at the calendar again and see what our fortunes bring for next year. I looked over last years Top 10 list predictions to get an idea of how it had turned out and it was quite topsy turvy. It was my first list I had done formally and I had Mastercard up 73.22% along side Arch Coal which was down -56.98%. Alexion Pharmaceutical up 70.19% next to Skyworks Solutions which was down -42.92%. It was my rookie list so a little fine tuning was in order.

So here is the Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog - Twelve for 2012 list in no particular order of preference. The focus here is capital gain based on fundamentals combined with, in some but not all cases, a dividend for a combined total return. This years portfolio is designed for a 20 - 25% annual return with a margin of safety for risk.

Cummins, Inc. (NYSE:CMI)

Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) (NYSE:ALU)

The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM)

PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PPG)

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)

CSX Corp (NYSE:CSX)

HMS Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:HMSY)

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (NYSE:SWK)

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (NYSE:FCX)

Seadrill, Ltd. (NYSE:SDRL)

PotashCorp (NYSE:POT)

lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ:LULU)

2012 is a year that is supposed to have many prophetic events to arrive according to the Mayan calender to the right and others. 100 years ago, 1912, was a pretty crazy year too, with many historic occurrences including the calamitous sinking of the Titanic. An event that had been deemed impossible to happen.

The point is, anything can and will happen in any given year.  So expect it, and do not be feared by it. Life will carry on and another year of experiences will engage you and test you. This list of stocks should keep you in good shape for awhile, at least on your financial side. (My wish for 2012 is that the housing market finally recovers and turns around, but I am not seeing it yet.)

Have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,

Freewilly

"Spice up your holiday season with a few shares of HMS Holding (Symbol HMSY)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,184 (UP) Week ending 12-09-2011
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,866 (Down) Week ending 12-16-2011 

Well I finally threw in the towel on trying to catch up to the weeks.
So this week you get a twofer, since I am too busy to catch up. So I posted both "end of weeks" together on one post, a first. I hope it is not confusing. So I will offer up a growth stock and a fundamentals stock. The one thing that they both have in common is that their stocks have both had "3 for 1" stock splits this year. The first is the stock of the health cost containment company  HMS Holdings Corp. ( Symbol, HMSY, $31.15). This would be your growth stock with a five year earnings growth rate of  45.31%.  Put that together with a 5 year sales growth rate of 31.38%  and you have quite a dynamic company and a great opportunity for investment. The company has offered up a one year total return of 44.3% and a three year total return  of 196.5%. We can certainly live with those returns in our portfolio. There job is cost containment in health care, who doesn't want that.

The second half of the doubleheader appropriately is the rail transportation company, CSX Corp. (Symbol CSX, $20.41).
CSX is expecting 2011 earnings per share of $1.69 and 2012 earnings of $1.93 per share. Analyst love this stock with 17 Strong Buy recommendations on it. Rail is still the cheapest way to move stuff. The company pays a 2.35% dividend and has a Return on Equity of 20.70%.  You can buy the stock here because it is off a little bit this year. Note the three year Total Return on the stock is 97.7%.


On more important news, the last US Troops left Iraq at 2:30 AM this morning and exited to Kuwait.  Job well done. 4487 of our soldiers gave their lives for the fight to end terrorism. The world and our country is a safer place because of their hard work and ultimate sacrifice. 







If you want to help the folks coming back, you can find a variety of avenues on this website. Networkforgood.org . Christmas will be special this year for allot of families.  


So, I think these two stocks will give you good returns over the next year. Have a blessed holiday no matter what religion that you believe in, and keep your family healthy and safe.

Freewilly

"One from Super Mario and his team with improving fundamentals and a good value price. Dana Holdings Corp. (DAN)"

Dow Jones Indusrial Average (UP 800!!)  12,019  Week ending 12-02-2011

Our never ending search for stocks with good fundamentals this week leads us to the top five list of Mario Gabelli and his crack team of researchers at GAMCO Investors, Inc. (This blog is a continuation from last week, running late). Mario for years has identified the macro trends and stocks that will do well based on those trends. In this case, the discovered stock is that of Dana Holding Corp. (Symbol DAN, $12.26) . Dana, the supplier of axle, driveshaft, structural, sealing and thermal management products for global vehicle manufacturers turned the corner to profitability last year after years of miserable losses. The company is projecting earnings for 2011 of $1.65 per share and for 2012 of $1.88 per share.  The auto parts stocks have been a pretty good area over the years with successful companies like Autozone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, BorgWarner and Genuine Auto Parts.

The numbers role out a little strange on this one. The one year total return this year is (-28.8%) on the stock. However, the  3 year total return on the stock is 1556.8%.  The forward PE on the stock is 7.4,  so it is quite a good value right here. Investors are going to want to see some consistency here so this price will move up more slowly but this is what gives you the opportunity to purchase. Our theme is 1 year to 3 year investments so this fits in quite nicely. 

Mario has some other good stuff available in these turbulent times.  My broker recommended to me the Gabelli Utility Trust, (Symbol GUT,$7.46). This investment is up 14.04% this year, but more importantly it pays an 8.04% dividend and it pays that dividend out monthly!  In this environment that is a really good thing keep you moving forward.

I have been very busy, sorry I was a week late. I will try to catch up this week. Please keep those Euro folks on the straight and narrow so we can keep this rally going.

Freewilly