Tuesday, December 28, 2021

The results are in for my 2021 stock picks and they look pretty good. Crypto currencies were the shooting star for 2021, but there are other blogs out there to discuss that.

12/28/2021 Greetings Everyone. Sorry I have been invisible. A confluence of things hit in 2021 including my regular job being extremely busy. Family health issues , Covid 19, and the markets wild rides and unpredictability on the short term, also had an effect on writing. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So here are the results for the Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog - 14 Value pics. The average total return was 32.61% and did not include dividends in an excellent year to accumulate capital. ***** I used 12/26/2021 as the cutoff date for results. as>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Here are the reults: Athene Holding LTD.- ATH Up 97.52%, Generac Holdings GNRC Up +54.47% Microsoft Inc. MSFT +50.48% , Lennar Inc. LEN +46.99%, Quest Diagnostics DGX +40.18% , McKesson Inc. MCK - +38.44% , PNC Bank PNC - +32.84% , AFLAC Inc. AFL - +29.73% , Berkshire Hathaway B Shares BRK.B - $27.01% , Walgreen Boots Alliance WBA - +26.58% , Canadian National Railway CNI - +10.76% , Akamai Technologies AKAM - +10.68% , Stellantis N.V. - STLA - +3.81% , >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ..and the one loser down -12.91% - Timkin Co. , a company and stock that I still like here for 2022. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Then the two speculative picks that came down with the high growth company flyers this year and that I still own and like both: Oncocyte Corp. OCX - Down -3.77% and Rada Electronic Industries LTD.- Down -3.08%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Oh and did I mention that we had a hail storm in July that destroyed both our roofs and destroyed some of our aluminum siding!
There was also a tornado, that hit a mile away from my home 3 weeks after that storm, that did damage like I have never seen with my own eyes! What a year of such crazy contrast. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Investing wise though, it was just a tremendous year to add equity into your retirement accounts. Hopefully it does not start getting taken away by Inflation this year. Have a great and healthy new year 2022. I will need to really look hard at my stock picks for 2022. There still seems to be lots of value out there if you know where to look. Sincere Regards, FREEWILLY

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Nvidia at $475 -$515 during the NASDAQ swoon is very interesting idea! Portfolio construction in a time of high valuations

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Down) 31,496.30 - Week ending 03/05/2021 --------------------------------------------- S & P 500 (Down) 3841.94 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charlie Munger says when Warren Buffett lectures at business schools that he says , "I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had twenty punches, representing all the investments that you were allowed to make in a lifetime. Under those rules, you'd think carefully about what you did , and you'd be forced to load up on what you'd really thought about. So you would do so much better." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well it is my humble opinion that if you followed Warren's advice, that Nvidia, (symbol NVDA), deserves a place as one of those punch card slots if you could get it at a price that was reasonable. Well this past week you could have picked up 5,10,or 15 shares of NVDA at prices between $475 and $515.00 and put in place a building block for constructing a very solid porfolio of stocks. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here is a great quote from Chuck Akre of Akre Capital Management from the book which I consider the Value investors "Bible", " The Art Of Value Investing" by John Heins and Whitney Tilson. ----------------------------------------------- Chuck says: "A company compounding capital at a way above-average rates when I have great confidence that will continue and the valuation is modest, I want to hold it at a size where it can have a material impact on the portfolio. The rationale is that simple." --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Wow! That sentence hit me like a thunderbolt of common sense in investing. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>>>>>>>>>>--- Another reason Warren Buffett's 20 number of stocks works so well is because you can try to make sure that no one stock takes more than 5% of your portfolio weighting. It gives you a balancing method by adding or subtracting shares of a stock. Warren himself does this procedure with his Apple shares. Because Apple was buying back their shares, Warren was able to sell some his position off yet maintain an equal or slightly higher % of the outstanding shares of Apple (AAPL). Although Warren has no fear of concentrating a massive position when it is to Berkshire Hathaway's advantage. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I am a little bit fearful, (my antennas are up!) about an additional 1.9 Trillion dollars in stimulus being added into the mix here. The government will need to carry this either by raising taxes or by issuing a bunch of new treasury bonds. Both Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase and Warren Buffett are telling people not to buy bonds here. What if nobody wants to buy our 10 Year treasury bonds to fund this? This could create a Black Swan event where interest rates on the 10Year bonds have a violent spike up until it finds buyers? That would not be good for many weaker growth stocks, and could drag the whole stock market down. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We will let Chicken Little "The sky is falling" worry about that one!---------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------- Have a great week, FREEWILLY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 31, 2021

2021 Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog - Round Table - Value stock picks

Memo January 31st - (Jackie Robinson's Birthday) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Here are my picks to start the year 01-01-2021: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Timkin Co. -(Symbol TKR) *************************************************************************** Generac Holdings - (Symbol GNRC) ******************************************************************************* Stellantis N.V. - (Symbol STLA) ************************************************************* PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (symbol PNC) ****************************************************************************** Berkshire Hathaway -B - (Symbol BRK.B) ************************************************************************************************** Canadian National Railway Co.- (Symbol CNI) ****************************************************************************************************************** Athene Holdings - (Symbol ATH) ******************************************************** AFLAC - (Symbol - AFL) ******************************************************************************************* McKesson Corp. - (Symbol MCK) ********************************************************** Quest Diagnostics - (Symbol DGX) ******************************************************************************************** Microsoft Inc. - (Symbol MSFT) ********************************************************** Akamai Technologies - (Symbol AKAM) ********************************************************************************************** Lennar - (Symbol LEN) **************************************************************************************************** Walgreen Boots Alliance - (Symbol WBA) ******************************************************* ************************************************************************************************************* ************************************************************************************************************* And a couple of more speculative picks: OncoCyte - (Symbol OCX) **************************************** Rada Electronic Industries LTD. - (symbol RADA) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Did I mention that I hate the new blogger format in HTML! That's all. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Freewilly