Sunday, October 25, 2015

"This week the stock market doled out rewards and punishment with great clarity in regards to measuring stock prices. Amazon, Google, Netgear and Microsoft getting rewarded with gains and with Chipotle, Community Health, Pandora and Skechers getting taken down substantially in price. My pick this week, Visa (symbol V), has not been known to disappoint."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,646.70  (UP) Week ending 10/23/2015


This was a week in the market where there was no middle ground. If you did good, you were rewarded handsomely with a tremendous gain in stock price. If you did bad, on sales and earnings reporting, no quarter was given, and ETF's and institutional sellers came in pounding your stock price down, selling without showing any mercy. 

This has been a year of rotating financial stocks for me. I started with Discover Financial which although a great value it never made any headway in the stock market. I sold that 4 months ago and moved that money to American Express, another great value stock on paper. Luckily I dumped that on the afternoon before they reported earnings this week, where they were punished for a revenues and earnings miss and taken down 8%. 


 I decided to move into Visa (Symbol V, $77.07) which has done very well this year. The PEG ratio on the stock is higher than I like to pay, listed at 1.64 and 2.14 on two different websites. I do not like to pay over 1.5 PEG , but I decided that I needed to pay a premium to get into a better financial growth name in the space.  ROE on the stock is 21.01%.

VISA has been a stellar performer with a 1 year gain of 43.87% and a YTD gain of 17.57% and a 1 month gain of 8.63% , all according to the CNBC mobile website. Revenues are growing at 12% a year and Net income is growing at 16.36% per year.

VISA which operates in 200 different countries has just boosted their dividend up by 17% and it now returns 0.73%. The company has $39.429 Billion dollars in assets and has Zero Long Term debt. The Quick Ratio and the Current Ratio are 1.59 to 1.00, very solid numbers financially.


USAA has just announced that they are moving all their credit and debit cards over to Visa from Mastercard. Visa is also on the forefront of card "Chip" technology which should improve margins. 

Earnings at the company are growing at 11.6% per year and for 3 to 5 year it has been 20.4%. The forward PE on the company is 29.17 so it is valued like a growth stock.

Analysts are 17 Buy , 4 Out Perform, and 2 hold. This stock is a little more richly priced than I normally buy but I think it is necessary to own a good quality stock in the Financial area as a strong long term hold.



So buy some VISA stock, then relax and have yourself a nice meal, get a good night sleep, and wait for your stock to rise up in value. Visa is a good 1-3 year investment suitable for any investment account.

Hope your Fantasy Football team is doing good on this wonderful autumn day and have a great investment week,

Freewilly

Sunday, October 4, 2015

"Adding some muscle to my lineup in this highly volatile market. A little growth, a little value, and one muscular biotech-pharma stock"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 16,472  (Up) Week ending 10-02-2015

Greetings. I am like all the other investors currently here trying to get a foothold 
and to position my portfolio correctly to move forward.

I even went so far as to listen to George Soros's lectures on Reflexivity and its relation
to financial markets, which are contrary to the traditional market accepted ideas on 
stock theory that emphasize Equilibrium as the rule. I had previously prejudged 
George S. because of his negative view on my George, (Bush 43). What Soros really
 is against is the Patriot Act. It is contrary to his views and philosophy on the 
"Open Society". It is a tough call between "freedom versus safety".  I have read
 his economic  theories with an open mind, and on that front, all must admit that he
 is absolutely brilliant. 



So while the market has corrected, I have taken some profit on winners and even 
sold out my Disney position. I took the cash to reinvest here and add to some 
smaller positions that I had established earlier in the year.


I wanted to add some muscle to my portfolio with these 3 picks. So the first 
thing I did was to add to my position in MobileEye N.V 
(Symbol MBLY)

This growth stock has doubled revenues 3 years in a row. I added to a previous 
position I had taken in the stock to move MBLY into a "Top 10" position in my
portfolio. I feel it is a good "Growth" component in my portfolio going forward. 
Barron's Magazine this weekend had an article about how General Motors Corp. is
looking at their technology favorably. Safety is important and MobileEye's software 
is tops in that department. It does not meet either of my normal criteria on ROE 
and PEG ratio so from that standpoint it is somewhat speculative.
My second stock, is my value stock pick, that I added to my position in. Time Warner Inc. (symbol TWX). while everyone else is loading up on Netflix, I am buying this ignored owner of HBO, Turner Broadcasting and Warner Bros. and all their valuable media assets. The stock should be trading at $120 per share based on earnings going into 2016 and it is at $70 per share. HBO is winning all of the awards, so add to your position in this one right here. This stock meets both my ROE and PEG rules.


My third pick that I added to was Celgene (Symbol CELG). I broke 
Jim Cramer's rules and averaged "UP" when I added to this position, but I was 
buying it on a big recent dip. Sometimes you just need to use common sense 
and break the rules. It was an opportunity to put Celgene in the Top 10 in my portfolio
 and so  I took advantage of it. This company is rock solid for the next few years. 

So with these 3 stocks I have added great muscular strength to my portfolio. I felt that 
this was the best strategy in this trading environment, just add "Tough guys". 

Like Popeye below you need to feed your portfolio some "spinach" and keep it strong.


Trade carefully and always improve your stock positions. 

Freewilly