Saturday, September 17, 2011

"The continuing search for growth and fundamentals leads me to the doorsteps of Direc TV Group (symbol DTV)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11509.09 (Up) Week Ending 09-16-2011

Sorry I missed you last week. I was down at the Jersey Shore, at Charlies on Shore Road in Somers Point NJ,  eating  LISA's PASTA & CLAMS , chopped Clams & Tender Littlenecks sautéed in White Wine Garlic (or Marinara Sauce) over Capellini (Angel Hair).  Sometimes you just need to kick back and do that. Besides that, the market was at kind of Mexican standoff anyway. So this week I am back in sync with a very smart growth pick.

Direc TV Group ( Symbol DTV, $43.70) is up around 6% for the year, but was at a high price of $53.40 just back on July 13th this year. I see it going to a target price of $60.00, which would be a 37% gain from the current $43.70 price. The 2011 earnings per share are projected at $3.37 and the 2012 earnings are projecting at $4.23 per share. 5 year earnings growth has been running at 19.73% and is projected at 20.66% going forward from here.

The total return on the stock for the last 3 years is 66.9%. I'll take a 22% increase in the value of my stock per year anytime. The current PE is 13.56 , very reasonable. Subscriber growth slowed a little bit in August,
but going forward they should be just fine. Their $29.95 package offering with the addition of the NFL package is a very compelling offer for the 4th quarter and should take market share from Comcast and Verizon. I have Comcast and they are charging me $63.00 plus a month just for basic TV cable.??

So let's wrap it up with Direc TV as a winner for you. Mitch would say, "I wanted to order Direc TV, but the satellite dish would not fit in my suitcase when I traveled".


Freewilly

Monday, September 5, 2011

"You have been whipsawed by this market in the 3rd quarter, let the earnings fundamentals lead you forward"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,240 (Down)  Week ending September 2nd.


It is really quite simple. You need to own companies which have a strong demand for their products, regardless of what the stock market is doing. There is tremendous demand for Aircraft products right now.  Kaman Corp. ( Symbol KAMN, $31.59) makes aircraft specialty bearings and aircraft  components. Earnings per share will be going from $1.99 in 2011 to $2.42 in 2012. Where do you see a stock like this? Spend $5.00 on the latest copy of Barron's, and get a nice macro view of the market and earnings. We still need paper to give us a better view. It is easy to see.

The next three stocks have tremendous demand for their products and parts because of the exploding demand for Smart phones by the world. Two of them in particular are suppliers to the monster machine known as Apple.  Qualcomm Inc. (Symbol QCOM, $49.68) ,  CIRRUS LOGIC ( Symbol CRUS, $14.20) , and  Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS, $19.62 ) are three stocks that should experience tremendous growth in the next few years from the growth of the smart phone market.
All three are projecting upside earnings growth that should bring their stock prices up.


Another area of growth with demand is the medical devices area. One name I like there since it has pulled back in price is ZOLL MEDICAL CORP (Symbol ZOLL $41.04) .  Again, tremendous upside earnings growth. We all need a defib after looking at our portfolio losses and this stock should be just the ticket.

 Another company with big time earnings growth is Paccar Inc. (PCAR, $35.67 ) growth theme in transportation parts and trucks. All these transportation vehicles whether it be planes, trucks, or automobiles,  are all old now and will need to be replaced soon creating demand.  

And one last one to mention that has a 6.77% dividend to go along with it is SEADRILL (Symbol SDRL, $31.90).   68% of the world is covered with water , and  Seadrill Limited, an offshore drilling contractor, provides drilling and well services to the oil and gas industries worldwide. The company also offers platform drilling, well intervention, and engineering services. They are experts in harsh environmental oil drilling.   


So that should give you something to work with. Happy Labor Day, do not do too much work today, you are supposed to be off. Have fun.


Freewilly

Saturday, September 3, 2011

"A little arbitrage play for you with Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (MMI) where you end up with shares of Google"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,285  (Up) Week ending August 26th

Cape May & Atlantic Counties in NJ
It would have been convenient if they had put up a sign for us, in the middle of July, to tell us that there was a Cat 3 hurricane coming to the stock market to do massive damage to our portfolios. We have recovered a little, but there is a long way to go.  Now, after we also have weathered a rare East Coast 5.9 earthquake during the midweek, New York City is facing an actual real Hurricane coming, which could close the exchange on Monday due to flooding.

Hurricane Irene as you can see by the map is bearing down on The Big Apple. It would figure because we finally got a one day rally going on Friday. Hopefully it will all go well.                                   

One idea to try for when the market finally does open is to purchase the shares of Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (Symbol MMI, $37.72). This is one of those trades the Chairman, Mario Gabelli might put on.  The stock has been offered to be bought out by Google (Symbol GOOG) at $40.00 per share.  Many things could happen. At worse you get paid the $2.28 per share, 5.25% immediate return on your money and you end up with shares in the high flying Google. Kind of a running start. Or a second scenario, another suitor arrives on the scene and has a hankering for those Motorola stack of patents for the mobile world and the stock price gets bid up even further.
 Now you know while the chairman is always smiling. Only possible downside, if Google for some reason pulls their bid offer. This is low percentage but possible.

(It was at this point Saturday night that Hurricane Irene rolled in and rocked Eastern PA. and South Jersey and knocked downed trees and knocked out the electricity here for days and flooded our basement)

  ......... and because of that I will wrap this up because it is Saturday already, and I need to start the next blog.

Just a note: If I ever mention a stock that is under $5.00 in price, it is against my tenants in Blog number one (go back and check) to purchase it, so consider it a highly speculative investment.

In general, unless you are speculating, (i.e. willing to lose all your money), you should not purchase stocks under $5.00 in price.    


Best Regards,

Freewilly