Saturday, July 14, 2018

Here is the quandary. How do we take advantage of the 2nd half growth spurt in earnings of 2018 without getting caught up in the 2019 stock market hangover. It is important question of timing.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 25,019.41 (UP) Week ending 07-13-2018
S + P 500 Stocks average - 2801.31
NASDAQ 7825.98


"Investors feeling a bit confined"

What is an investor to do?  There are some tempting gains sitting right out there in front of you. The earnings and buybacks will all be drawing you to buy in. The quants are just blindly pouring into mega growth stock names and riding a wave. Align Technology Inc. is at $363.45 a share. Stamps.com is at $217.10 per share. Lending Tree is at $232.95. It puts me in mind of the market phase when the optical electronics stocks were just heading to the moon. They shortly, (but not immediately), found their way to the ground instead.

But alas, I am a Value Investor. They tell me that I can't purchase bonds, because interest rates are going up and bonds will go down, so no margin of safety there. Do I just move to money market and wait outside the market until the rise and the swoon both are all done? 2020? Do I have the patience for that?  Or do I want do buy some somewhat reasonable , (less than full margin of safety),  Value stocks and ride them out through the storm next year as a long term investor?  Yes it is a quandary.


Well I can give you a couple of "now or later" or "keep an eye on"  Value Picks I like with good Returns on Equity for now.


Progressive Corp.  (Symbol PGR , price $58.44 , Return on Equity 20.20%).  Warren Buffett has GEICO to anchor his portfolio and kick into cash flow, you should have Progressive for your insurance company anchor.




 CBS Class B.  (Symbol CBS , price $59.01, Return on Equity 46.80%) Someday the Redstone's and National Amusement and Viacom and CBS will sort out this tangled mess to realize the value here. 

Mario Gabelli has been waiting on it for years now. (Did I mention patience before?) . I have ridden this trade in the distant past and it worked out very well. Buying Westinghouse shares at 13 and then later selling it in converted CBS Shares at $68.00 per share. ( My daughter bought a new Volkswagen Jetta on her own with this trade!)

This is not a value pick, but it is a name that has popped up as a long term investment idea. Again, not a call on the timing of the price of the stock right here (i.e. Speculative pick) , just bring it up as a "thought out loud". (Also FYI, Tom Gardner from Motley Fool had brought the name up on Consuelo Mack's Wealth Track Show this past week.) 



                                      Stitch Fix . (Symbol SFIX, price $32.96 each)

That's all for today. Happy Bastille Day. The French are in the FIFA World Championship tomorrow against a good Croatia team.  Good luck to both squads. 

 Le Tour De France heads to the brutal cobble stones in Stage 9 tomorrow, then 3 days in Stages in the Alps, (sounds brutal like traveling through our US stock markets with the tariff challenges).

Au revoir!    Freewilly