Sunday, September 15, 2019

Has the tide finally turned to Value stocks? Did I mention also that treasury bonds with their inflated asset value pose some risk here.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,219.52       09/15/2019
S & P 500 Index: 3,007.39

We have been told our whole life to barbell bonds with our stocks to be the "safety" part of our portfolio. Most balanced funds traditionally are 60% stocks and 40% bonds. But maybe with the asset values of intermediate treasury bonds so inflated and their payment yields down in the 1's , we should be comparing them to money market funds instead of stocks.  Why be holding the bonds and assuming the risk of their asset value going down,  when you can have the safety of a Money Market fund with 1 to 1 and 1/2 % less yield, but with no risk at all and a tiny yield. Be Safe. Move some of your intermediate term bond asset holdings into money market to be exposed to less bond asset risk. Enough said.

First on the value stocks, I want to apologize for my Mallinckrodt pick (symbol MNK). I could  never have imagined that a company with $3 Billion dollars in revenue a year and the maker of Methadone that helps people with heroin addiction could be driven out of business by hundreds of states and counties attorney generals suing them for their production of pain killers. What about the DEA who monitored the production numbers of these pain killers and the doctors writing all these scripts for them?  Where is their culpability and responsibility in this?
The lesson learned?  Don't buy stocks with large debt loads that could get caught in a situation 
where they might not be able to get financing if surprise events occur. Avoid this risk.

So what stocks do I like here? :

ADT (Stock symbol , ADT, $5.94) is a stock liked by famed Value investor Bill Miller.  I am on board also for this alarm and security company that is in partnership interfacing their alarm systems with Amazon's Alexa. Good things should happen here and they pay a 2.36% dividend. 2020 earnings per share are projected at $1.08 per share.


I like a couple beverage stocks here. National Beverage (symbol FIZZ, $46.53) maker of the very popular La Croix beverage brand. 

 Also Monster Beverage  (symbol MNST, $58.86) , who is part owned by Coca-Cola is a stock I like here.  Both of these stocks have compressed a bit from their high points and present a rare opportunity to be purchased here at value prices for stocks in this hot beverage sector. 


I usually hate semiconductor stocks because I have been burned by this cyclical semiconductor industry in the past but right here I like Xilinx, (symbol XLNX, $105.24).  7 to 1 Current ratio here, (staying away from companies with debt), and a very good Return on Equity.  When things with China and the tariffs get sorted out a bit this company should be in great shape to take advantage of it. 


 "I'm dumping bonds and moving to large cap value mutual funds" 

Hope that you have a great weekend and a profitable Q4 in the stock market. 

Check the stocks you own for debt levels and move some money into some decent Value stocks.

Freewilly