Friday, May 31, 2013

"Boldly going where no man has gone before, Biotech Stocks. ( At least us fundamental guys don't go there.)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,303.10  (Down) Week Ending 05-24-2013


Once upon a time, there were three Biotech Stocks. One was big, one was medium and one was small. So, I decided to tell you about them on the blog, (which is actually last week's blog), but I will give you the 5-31 prices on these stocks.  

Since time is at a premium , I will give you just some brief snapshots.

And here they are.......


Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Symbol JAZZ, $67.97).

This one is a brute with the muscular numbers. Return on Equity of 31.82% and PEG ratio of 0.51. This Dublin, Ireland company with a US HQ in Palo Alto, CA. is projecting 2013 earnings per of $6.15 and 2014 projected earnings of $7.55 per share. 14 Strong buy recommendations. You can buy this one "at will," especially if we get a little correction here. This stock could trade up into the $90-100 area. 








Santarus Inc. (Symbol SNTS, $22.27) 

This one is a smaller version of the beast above. I believe both companies are good long term investments. 

Return on Equity of 47.71% and PEG ratio of 1.02.   4 strong buy recommendations and 1 hold.

$218 Million in Revenues this past year.  2013 earnings per share projected at $0.91 and 2014  earnings of $1.35 per share. I can see this stock moving to the $28.00 to $33.00 area by next year.


The third Biotech stock, my "baby bear," is a speculative name and investment that is only for designated money that could increase or decrease by 50%, in other words speculative, but could also be a very good long term hold, buy it and forget about seed money stock. 

They are developing an oral diabetes treatment that has looked "pretty encouraging;" it is "in late stage clinical investigation".  That's a nice way of saying that the company has much higher expenses at start-up than whatever sales it might have. This is normal for this kind of company. The company is followed by eight investment firms.

MannKind Corp. (Symbol MNKD, $6.66). No gaudy stats here, just faith in a great idea that you hope can come to fruition. Here is what Mannkind's website says:  "Our lead investigational product candidate, AFREZZA® (pronounced uh-FREZZ-uh) ,

is a novel, ultra rapid-acting mealtime insulin therapy being studied for the treatment of adult patients with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mellitus for the control of hyperglycemia." 

The company does have a nice chart:  Mannkind Stock Chart

That's all I got on the biotechs, (unless you want to take a flyer on DNDN, Dendreon at $3.99 per share), for some more speculation, but not with the kid's college money.

Freewilly



Sunday, May 19, 2013

"It is the glory days in Pennsylvania once again. As the Marcellus Shale moves ahead in the northern tier with tremendous Natural Gas production, a little farther south, in the Lehigh Valley, you have Air Products and Chemicals poised to bring Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology to the big stage."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,354  (UP , and once again ALL-Time High) week ending 05-17-2013

Not since the glory days of the Pennsylvania Railroad has the State of Pennsylvania had such a dominant position in any one economic sector. This time it is ENERGY. I didn't see it at first. I was not thinking about anything but Natural Gas, that will shortly dominate the energy scene in 2014-2015. 

But, there is another energy source right here in Pennsylvania.  Fuel Cells and Hydrogen fueled crossover automobiles, buses and trucks. The Fuel Cell converts hydrogen to electricity to power electric motors, rather than burning hydrogen in place of gasoline. The country of Iceland has, in large part, already converted to Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology.  Hyundai says it will produce 1,000 ix35 Fuel Cell vehicles by 2015.  

The winner in this is Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (Symbol APD, $94.33)


Oh, you're not feeling Green enough yet?  How about this: Air Products' Solar Farm - Largest Silicon Thin-Film Solar Panel Farm in U.S. . Now, how about some numbers?

Return on Equity 18.67% - PEG Ratio 1.67. The Peg ratio is up a bit because of these recent market runs. Once again, in these rising stock market conditions, you might want to buy on a slight market correction to buy below 1.50 on the Peg Ratio. 


Need a Fill-up on your Space shuttle?

You are looking for Total Return here, so start with a 3.01% dividend to start you off. The one year Total Return on the stock has been 22.08% and the 3 Year Total Return has been 47.85%

You're not going to see any big sales gains in the short term, but these guys are on the right path. Sometimes, there is more to the parts of a company story than is immediately evident in the numbers. 2013 earnings per share are projected to be $5.51 per share. 2014 earnings per share are projected forward to be approximately $6.09 per share. 


So, maybe when you pull up to the fuel service station, you will pick out either Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Diesel or Gasoline. No Nuclear powered vehicles yet, but who knows what will come in the next 10 years?

APD is a good solid cyclical stock for your portfolio that has a very bright future ahead in Energy.

Who knew it would all being going on here in Pennsylvania?? 

Enjoy the rest of your weekend. 

Freewilly                                            







Monday, May 13, 2013

"Everyone wants hardwood floors. So, why wouldn't you own stock in Lumber Liquidators?"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  15,118.49 (UP and all-time HIGH)  Week ending 05-10-2013

It never fails to amaze me when I watch these home and real estate TV shows and the first thing they say when they walk in is, "I love these hardwood floors." Everybody wants them. You could go get them installed by Home Depot or Lowe's, but a better idea is to buy them from the specialists that sell nothing but hardwood floors. 


Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. (Symbol LL, $89.01) 


LL, has a Return on Equity of 24.03% and a PEG ratio of 0.4956 in Y-Charts and 2.28% in Smartmoney. This brings up a good point and that is that when you do your homework and research stocks, you should check multiple sources to get your stats before you go ahead and make a stock purchase. (Make that Rule #7). 


 Lumber Liquidators is projecting earnings per share of $2.43 for 2013 and $2.92 per share for 2014. The company has ZERO Long Term debt and because of its rapid growth, it pays no dividend. 2012 Revenues came in at $856 Million, so it's not even a Mid-Cap stock yet. The PE on the stock is currently 36.77, so you might want to wait for a market correction to buy or just take a small initial position, and then add to it later. However, Quarter year over year earnings were up 96.55% and quarterly gross margin is 40.38%. Hmmm?

The 5 year sales growth of the company has been 13.74% and the 5 year earnings growth rate has been 21.07%. 

Give me carpet with 3/4 inch padding to keep my feet warm in the winter, but if I'm buying stock , give me LL with a one year Total Return of 220.34 % and a 3 Year Total return
of 199.70% and I'll just put on the warm socks!

This is the ideal stock for the Growth segment of your portfolio. Just look to buy in at a good time. 

On another note, Louis Rukeyser is my mentor, but Alan Abelson of Barron's, God rest his soul, was my muse. If I could ever be a tenth as good as him at seeing the stock market and writing about it with such wit, genius and unbridled sarcasm, I would consider myself a great success.  Wall Street has lost a great voice, and I personally will miss him. 


Alan Abelson - Legendary Columnist - Barron's Magazine -"Up and Down  Wall Street"

 Good Night .... Freewilly