"Time to be wary with the government continuing to run up its debt tab. But there are still good values out there to invest in. We still have another quarter of good upside movement in the market."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,570  (UP) week ending 10-25-2013

 Fiver - Could see the future in Watership Down

Many of you have read Richard Adam's classic novel Watership Down and remember Fiver, the rabbit who was a prophesier of the future. In the picture to the left, Fiver sees blood in the field and was scared because he sees the coming destruction of the warren. Well, that is kind of how I feel right now with the government not reducing any spending at all when pressed to do so. Add on top of that the Affordable Care Act law, which I believe will add another 3-4 Trillion dollars to our overall national debt. A scary view out into our future.

In the short term, full steam ahead, but sometime in 2014, we could run into a very ugly situation with a downgrade of  US credit rating and a rise in interest rates. So keep your eyes wide open here and if it starts to look dicey,  start getting some of your assets to the sidelines.

Manitex International, (Symbol MNTX, $13.87), is the kind of stock you may want to look at going into this type of period. It runs below the current of the mainstream market. The stock was mentioned in Zacks Investment Ideas as a "best Value Play" and was also mentioned on Forbes List of America's best Small Companies.


Manitex International, Inc. is a leading provider of engineered lifting solutions including cranes, reach stackers and associated container handling equipment, rough terrain forklifts, indoor electric forklifts and special mission oriented vehicles, including parts support.


MNTX stock is up 53% this year and the One year change in the stock is up 107.95%. Numbers vary depending to what site you go to. PEG ratio 0.83 on one site and 0.2375 on another. Either way, cheap compared to growth. Return on Equity is 13.60 %. This small cap stock did Revenues of $232 Million. Revenue growth has been 50% and the expected revenue growth is 20%.

1 year earnings growth has been 40% with ongoing earnings growth at 27.3%. The forward PE on the stock is 11.80. The IBD rating on the stock is 98-91-91. If you read Investor's Business Daily you know what that means. If not, you need to spend a couple bucks and buy a copy!

The 2013 earnings per share estimate is $0.86 and the 2014 earnings per share is projected at $1.20.

So, let's see how this 4th quarter rolls out and be prepared to go into a very defensive mode if the "Drunken Sailor" spending and the Fed "Non Tapering" continues down there in Washington DC. Somebody in Congress needs to step up and make a stand.

Feel free to comment your opinion on my blog.

See you next week ,   
         Freewilly


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"Time to look ahead to 2014 and see what sectors are looking favorable. One area is Steel, and Steel Dynamics, Inc (STDL) is one company with a favorable earnings outlook"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,23711 (Up) Week ending 10-11-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average  15,399.65 (Up) Week ending 10-18-2013

It sure feels like a blow-off top at the end of this week in the Momentum stocks. Google, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Amazon just exploded to the upside. But I think we are very close to a top in these Netflix and PriceLine.com type momentum stocks and folks should start locking in some profits on these names. Don't get sucked in and be buying them here!

Looking ahead to 2014, it appears that Steel will be one good area to deploy some capital.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (Symbol STLD, $18.09) appears to be an aggressive way to play this now for 2014.  The company has been no slouch this year being up 39.15% in stock price year to date.  The PEG ratio on the company is 0.83 (according to Yahoo Finance) and the Return on Equity is a low 5.08 but improving next year. The company is paying a 2.43% dividend currently and this is expected to rise also to 2.60% dividend in the future.



STLD has a Current Ratio of 2.58,  so they are very financially stable. The Book Value on the shares is $11.10, so this seems like a pretty good value at $18.00. Operational Cash flow is $386 Million dollars for the trailing 12 months. (TTM).


Steel Dynamics, Inc. is projecting earnings per share of $0.85 for 2013 and for 2014 earnings per share look like $1.46 per share, a big rise, and one which would have the stock sitting at a PE of 12 at the current. Insiders for the last 6 Months have been doing nothing but purchasing.



And guess what? They employ a lot of people in Plants around the USA. Gotta like that!

The Company does between $7-8 Billion a year , so it is a good solid MID-Cap stock for your portfolio.

Freewilly is a big advocate for diversification between Small Cap,  Mid Cap and Large Cap stocks in your portfolio.

Too many people's portfolios are lopsided towards owning too many Large Cap stocks.

The idea here is to start preparing for your 2014 portfolio. Unload the stock ideas that have failed this year and take profits on some of your Momentum stock superstars to offset.

Sullivan County, PA,  near Laporte

Enjoy your Autumn weekend,

Freewilly

"Can't ever get enough of those Television Broadcasting stocks. Here is another one to add to your list: Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc., NXST"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  14,994.68  (Way Down) Week ending 09-27-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average  15,072.58  (Up)   Week ending 10-04-2013

I have loved the Broadcasting and Media stocks going all the way back to Paramount Pictures and Gulf and Western.  CBS Corp., Disney/ABC, Scripps Network, AMC Networks, Time Warner, Comcast/NBC,  LionsGate and the list of winners goes on this year.



Alexander Eule over at Barron's in his September 21st article brought this next stock to light.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group Class A., (Symbol NXST, $44.95) is the next name to add to the successful group above. Eule mentioned Nexstar and some other stocks in regards to the broadcast spectrum licenses and spectrum that they own that could be worth as much as the whole current given value of the company.

Nexstar Broadcasting, based out of Irving Texas, has a PEG ratio of 0.0041. The stock has a year to date return of 324% and is trading near its high for the year of 45.42.

There are only 30 Million shares outstanding of the stock and the company has a market cap of 1.35 Billion currently, so this is a baby Mid-Cap stock.

The company with its local TV stations across small markets around the country should benefit due to the AD market recovery and should also get a windfall from all of the political ad spending and ObamaCare advertising.

The stock trades at a low PE ratio of 7.9 and does pay a dividend equal to 1.07%. The company current ratio is 2.658 to 1.

The Big news is that earnings for 2013 are projected
at $1.05 for 2013, but then rocket up to $3.57 per share in 2014, a huge rise in earnings. The company also is a digital company that creates websites with community interaction.

The big kicker to the stock, though, is the value of the broadcast spectrum that Eule mentioned in his Barron's article, so you can buy this one and sit on it a while.

Sometimes, you just have to admit that somebody else has a great idea and just go with it.

Lou Rukeyser would happily go along with that line of thinking.

Always good to see you, Lou!  I wonder what you would say about this government circus show.

Freewilly