"Here are the new year's "14 for 2014" stock picks. These stocks present the best opportunity for total return in the new year."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 16,221 (UP) Week ending 12-20-2014

Good morning everyone. I have put together my list of stocks to start on January 1st 2014 that gives you the best chance for the year for total return. It is a list of very aggressive, (and by that I mean,) "high beta" stock names that are growing the fastest and, in some cases, have already run up substantially in 2013.  What these stocks have in common is that they all have strong balance sheets and good projected earnings growth for 2014.  My thought is that the economy will actually be growing faster this year and that these names should be the best performers.

 At the end of the year, I calculate the return on the basis of buying equal parts of each stock and then calculating the average return. If you read last week's blog, it shows the 2013 return which was 38.716% which is my best return ever. In 2012, my performance was 16.7% which was also very good.



 "3 D Systems Printers"

So here are the picks for 2014:

Stratasys Ltd. - (Symbol SSYS)
Golar LNG - (Symbol GLNG)
Direct TV - (Symbol DTV)
Cree Inc. - (Symbol CREE)
Nike Inc. Cl B - (Symbol NKE)
Holly Frontier - (Symbol HFC)
Yahoo - (Symbol YHOO)
3 D Systems - (Symbol DDD)
Google - (Symbol GOOG)
Hain Celestial - (Symbol HAIN)
Berkshire Hathaway Class B - (Symbol BRK.B)
Arris Group Inc. - (Symbol ARRS)
Polaris Industries - (Symbol PII)
Manitex International - (Symbol MNTX)

I changed this list around 20 times for various reasons but have come up with this final list. 3-D printer stocks, Liquified Natural Gas transport, LED lighting and the two dominant search engines, are a few of the themes that are the glue for the composition of this year's list.

It was difficult to leave some of last year's names off, Celgene, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Borg Warner who all continue to perform well. But I had to narrow it down to 14 names for the new year.

So let us look ahead to another good year in the stock market. Hopefully, we all make enough money to retire, so that all of the young people out there can have our jobs and be gainfully employed and lower the unemployment rate.

Technology continues to eliminate jobs permanently, especially with the emergence of the Robotics industry, (which Google has exposure to and one of my runner up stocks, Intuitive Surgical (Symbol ISRG), dominates on the medical side.) Other new technology, like Google Glass, continue to create jobs that never existed.

So here is a toast to the new year 2014! May all of your stocks perform well!

Happy New Year!

Freewilly

"The 2013 investing year is coming to a sunset. Let's see how my 13 stocks for 2013 performed. I think that I kicked butt! Easy peasy lemon squeezy"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,755.36 (Down) Week ending 12-13-2013

What a year! This was a year where most everything worked.  My only loser pick was Phillip Morris. I guess everybody is moving to those electronic cigarettes.

Celgene was the Adrian Peterson of stocks this year, up 106.54% this year up until Friday.
Facebook, Chipotle Mexican Grill, MasterCard and Borg Warner were the other heavy hitters in 2013. Here is the list in descending order based on success.

Celgene (CELG)                                 106.54%           

Facebook (FB)                                      88.81%
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)           84.71%
MasterCard    (MA)                             62.66%
Borg Warner  (BWA)                          61.83%
Scripps Network (SNI)                        39.57%
Whole Foods Market (WFM)              25.55%
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (BUD)      14.74%
DaVita HealthCare Partners (DVA)   12.72%
Diageo Plc  (DEO)                                 4.40%
Petsmart (PETM)                                  4.10%
Ebay Inc. (EBAY)                                 1.04%
Phillip Morris (PM)                             (3.36%)

So my grand total average return for 2013 is:    38.716%


"LEELOO DALLAS MULTI PASS" 

 

I think I won the contest to Fhloston Paradise!

This year, anyone could have been a stock Diva, though. With 13 stocks, that is a pretty darn good average.



Next year, well...now that will be a lot tougher challenge. I am working on that list right now. It will be 14 stocks.

I was a little surprised that the Tobacco and Beverage stocks did so poorly.  In most years, they are stalwarts.


 "Fed Tapering Elf"

Celgene Corp. raising next year's earnings estimates.

MasterCard ended up splitting their stock 10 for 1 and raising their dividend by 83%.

Chipotle Mexican Grill: whenever I go there it is busy and the food is good and reasonably priced.

Scripps Network getting interest from Discovery Communications.

Borg Warner doing lots of international business.

Facebook looks cheap now based on their business growth with Twitter sitting out there trading at the same price and no profits.

Whole Foods Market operationally performing perfectly and expanding at a controlled rate.

All in all a good year.  Below, Wall Street is prepared for the Christmas holiday with the lighted tree.

Remember that the holiday is about giving and thinking about family and friends here now, and those from the past. Surprise someone with your generosity.

Season Greetings and smart stock investing,

Freewilly

"Direct TV (Symbol DTV) is Berkshire Hathaway's 9th largest holding. That is a good enough endorsement for me to add some of this stock to my long term holdings."

Dow Jones Industrial Average  16,086.41 (UP)  Week ending 11-29-2013
Dow Jones Industrial Average  16,020.20 (Down)  Week ending 12-06-2013

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway's investment team do not make investments lightly. They make a thorough investigation of a company's financial numbers and consistent growth prospects. So when they invest $2.35 Billion dollars or purchase 7% of a company's stock and it is their 9th largest holding, you can bet that someone has done their homework first. Buffett started buying DTV at $42.00 a share and kept buying on the way up. Berkshire just recently lightened their position just slightly.


Direct TV (Symbol DTV, $66.44) is the above mentioned investment which has a one year return of 32.75% and a 3 year total return of 64.70%. We will take those kind of numbers anytime. The PE on the stock is 12.73 and the forward PE is 11.44.

The PEG ratio on the stock is 1.09 and the 12 month trailing PEG ratio is 0.4626, so there is much growth in progress. Direct TV has 12 month trailing revenues of $31.21 Billion dollars.

 DIRECT TV "Genie"

Earnings for 2013 will be $5.00 per share and for 2014 they are projected at $5.79 per share. Year over year quarterly earnings growth is 42.22%.

DTV operates at a Gross Margin% of 47.69%.  The company has a Market Cap of 34.71 Billion, but the company has an Enterprise Value of $52.52 Billion.
The company currently does not pay a dividend.

Again, whatever you do with the Dow Jones at 16,000 plus, you need to buy into these stocks in small parcels and average in.  Do not place any large positions at these levels. Portfolio managers are doing stock rotations in all different directions this month for rebalancing and tax considerations. Be patient for your opportunity to buy.

Best Wishes,

Freewilly