Sunday, October 26, 2014

"I can't see why you wouldn't load up here on Yahoo Inc.(Symbol YHOO) with their motherload of $$billions of dollars of Alibaba stock. But on a sadder note, the sudden passing of television financial anchor and New York Post stock columnist Terry Keenan"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  16,805.41 Week ending 10-24-2014


Terry Kennan - An original producer of Wall Street Week
She was everywhere. PBS, CNN, CNBC, Fox,  The New York Post. No one had a resume that could touch Terry Keenan. 

Suddenly, now at a young 53 years old, she is gone.  Here is a link to a better description of all her achievements. 
Terry Keenan - A life dedicated to Finance and the Stock Markets.

Here is a link to her current work, her weekly New York Post Financial ColumnTerry Keenan - her weekly New York Post column .

I love this picture provided to the press by Terry's sister Linda Keenan, of Terry and Louis Rukeyser, one of her mentors back in the early days which was the very beginnings of financial TV and reporting. Terry Keenan help set the standard that all others must live up to.  


Terry Keenan and Louis Rukeyser

So this week's blog is dedicated to the memory and the successful life of Terry Keenan.


Terry would want me to tell you about the enviable position of Marissa Mayer, The CEO of Yahoo.

Yahoo Inc. (Symbol YHOO, $43.50)

Yahoo, sold 120 million of its 524 million Alibaba shares in the initial public offering for $9.8 Billion dollars. That would leave 404 Million shares of Alibaba stock owned by Yahoo Inc. . Alibaba, (symbol BABA), stock closed on Friday Oct. 24th at $95.95 per share. That would make their remaining shares worth $38.763 Billion. Forbes calculates that Yahoo's 35% investment in Yahoo Japan is worth $5 Billion and it regular web business and it's other investments like Tumblr are worth $10 Billion. 


Marissa Mayer , CEO of Yahoo

Well, when I plug that all into my little calculator I come up with $63.563 Billion dollars.

In the immortal words of the former United States Senator - Everett Dirkson, "A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon we are talking about real money."

I just went to CNBC's website and they tell me that at today's price the company's Total Market Capitalization is $43.3 Billion dollars. Hmmn? Interesting.



Now there is certainly a good chance that Marissa is going to deploy some of this cash to buy some companies that are growing faster than Yahoo, so there could be some good synergy there.

Also, the price of Alibaba is more than likely going to rise from here.

 Yahoo Japan is in a Japanese economy that is showing signs of recovery.

So with a Return on Equity already of 58.4 % on this stock and a PEG Ratio of 0.0104 ,  I see a good "margin for safety" here and lots of room for stock appreciation.

 I would say to buy this YHOO stock right here and on any dips. 

These two are a stock picker's match made in heaven!












Enjoy every moment of your life and strive for excellence like Terry Keenan did.


Freewilly

Saturday, October 18, 2014

"Well that was a fun two weeks . The US markets took a repeated drubbing, hedge funds were forced to liquidate positions, and Ebola talk scared the hell out of everybody. The facts are though, that the price of crude oil came down and there are other signs of Deflation"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 16,544.10 (Down) Week ending 10-10-2014
Dow Jones Industrial Average 16,380.00 (Down and Ugly) Week ending 10-17-2014


OMG! Well in the immortal words of Louis Rukeyser after the 1987 crash , "It's just your money, not your life".

 Personally, my IRA account which is mostly growth stocks has been hammered down 12.25% off of it's highest values of the year in this two week rolling sell off. But the one thing you must remember is you still own the same amount of shares in these high quality growth companies that you have picked out, so nothing has really been lost or changed.

The market at the end of this week reminded me of a Carnival shooting gallery. Opportunities arose at different moments of the day and then suddenly disappeared.


Schlumberger Ltd. (Symbol SLB) with its tremendous backlog of business flashed for a moment at $85.00

a share, by the end of the day it was back to $94.78 in aftermarket. 

Honeywell (Symbol HON) with its good business and its steady 2% dividend
slipped down to $85.00 also, only to end at $90.30 in aftermarket. Just like ducks moving across in rows waiting to be shot at. 

Celgene Corp. (Symbol CELG) tumbled down to $85.00 dollars per share after I had recommended it last week at $95.00 in my blog. That one I jumped in and bought, (took my shot!) and it ended the week at $88.15.

Gilead Sciences (Symbol GILD) had also dived down to $92.00 per share only to end back up at $100.95.

I added to my positions in two oil stocks, Continental Resources (CLR) and Triangle Petroleum (TPLM),  taking advantage in the temporary downward spiral in West Texas Crude oil prices.

I was selling positions in the shaky semiconductor area, such as Cree and Invensense, and adding to positions in the more solid Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and Constellation Brands (STZ) consumer goods companies.

I think if you get another travel Ebola scare this week and the airlines get knocked down , I would look to buy some  Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) at a bargain price.




The point is in this discussion is that with this wild volatility you need to to have some cash set aside to take advantage of such opportunities as they briefly show themselves. 

Just think of it like the target shoot at the Carnival. Take your shot when it is the best probability to add quality names at a discount to your portfolio. Get rid of names that you do not want to hold in your 2015 portfolio going forward to raise cash.

All that said, I think this week we could still have a little more downside. So if your duck briefly shows up, take a shot at him and buy in on a sweet deal!



"Life is a carnival"  ... rock group The Band


Freewilly




Sunday, October 5, 2014

What's stocks are going to be hot in 2015. According to all the TV commercials I see and the news on every channel, its DRUGS!"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,009.69 (Down) Week ending 10-03-2014

Every other commercial on TV these days is some kind of DRUG commercial. I feel like I am living in Ray Bradbury's movie "Fahrenheit 451", where in the movie Julie Christie is watching all the drug commercials on Government TV and all the books in the world are going away and being destroyed. It's all happening as predicted. Aldous Huxley's Brave New World with everybody on the Soma compound! Well if that's the deal , I should take advantage and practice some Reflexivity like George Soros, and buy a rock solid, no risk, drug stock ahead of the curve.

  Celgene Corp. (Symbol CELG, $95.21) is a stock to buy into as we go through the 4th quarter and going into 2015.

 Celgene is part of the big drug machine economy. Last year CELG had $7.033 Billion dollars in sales. 3 year Sales growth has been 17%. Those sales produced $1.414 billion in Net Annual Income. Celgene operates at a Gross Profit Margin of 94.72%.


What about my Freewilly standard measures of ROE and PEG?  Return on Equity for the company is 27.92%, (and IBD says that the annual Return on Equity is actually 45.43%?).  The PEG ratio on the stock is 1.19. So both of these numbers are excellent.

 Earnings look good. 3 year annual earnings have been 26% and over a 5 year period they have been 24.40%. Earnings per share for 2013 were $2.99 and for 2014 projected at $3.68 per share. 2015 earnings are projected out at $4.86 per share.


The ratings on Celgene in IBD are 99-95-91 and A+ and A. Insiders buying looks good. Analysts have 18 buy recommendations on the stock. 

The one year total return on the stock is 21.08%. Quarterly Free Cash Flow is $478 Million dollars. The Quick Ratio and Current ratio both look good on the stock. 

All in all this is a solid pick for your 2015 portfolio. It is fairly valued here, so accumulate it on tips in the market.

Just finished in time for the NFL One o'clock Football games to start. 

Have a great week and enjoy this beautiful weather in the eastern US.

Freewilly