"Oil stocks and crude oil are crashing down in price, but let's not "throw away the baby with the bathwater". There are still some good energy stocks"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,810 (Up)  Week ending 11-21-2014
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,828 (Up)  Week ending 11-28-2014

 Well, with the OPEC big four countries decision not to cut production, crude continued it's slide on Friday with West Texas Intermediate crude trading down to $66.15 per barrel, down 11.4 % and the Brent Crude fix at $70.15 , down 10.85%.

Just like any other sector in a downturn, every energy company in the group is not affected in the same way. The oil service companies, midstream pipeline companies, and some refiners will probably not be as adversely affected by the drop in crude pricing.

How about Murphy USA, (Symbol MUSA, $63.72), that has most of their gas stations near WalMart stores. The stock is up 38.4% this year.

Energy Transfer Equity, LP. (Symbol ETE, $59.39), which has a PEG Ratio of 0.81 and a 2.8% Dividend. The stock is up 58.86% this year.
 

Triangle Petroleum Corp. (Symbol TPLM, $4.82) has a PEG Ratio of 0.34 and a forward PE of 9.3. It has a Return on Equity of 17.46 and 2/3 of it's business is in midstream pipeline and oil services. It also has a 18% Operating Margin.

Kinder Morgan Inc. ,(Symbol KMI, $41.35), is probably the best quality of the group. The consolidation of Kinder's properties makes it the largest midstream pipeline provider in the country. It pays a 4.26% dividend and it is up 15.37% this year. Jim Cramer of CNBC and The Street has been pounding the table on this one for a couple years now.

So don't run for the hills when you see an area crashing down. Look for the opportunities that come available for good long term investments that would normally not be available to you to buy at these prices.

 Off to start a great December month,

Freewilly

Sometimes when you find a good stock and you're fairly sure of it, you need to press your bet. I think that Edward Lifesciences Corp., (Symbol EW), is one of those stocks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17, 634.74 (UP) Week ending 11-14-2014

Stanley Druckenmiller and George Soros

When Stanley Druckenmiller was asked about what he had learned from George Soros in Jack D. Schwager's 1992 book "The New Market Wizards , Conversations with America's Top Traders" he responded this:

"I've learned many things from him, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you are wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on the market and didn't maximize the opportunity"

So when you're right, and you know you're right, you need to press your bet and take a large position or add to your position. Such is the case with
Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (Symbol EW, $124.50).

Edwards to start with has a one year stock price change for the trailing 12 months of 91.57%. The three year return is 77.05%.

The PEG ratio is kind of wacky because of a large one time earnings quarter so I have seen 2.25 and 0.1625. Also the Return on Equity I have seen 25.30% and 46.99% both of which are very good.

This designer, developer, manufacturer and marketer of products to treat stage cardiovascular disease has annual Revenues of $2.241 Billion with EBITA of 590 Million and annual Net Income of 779.6 Million.

EW operates at a Gross Margin of 74.5% and has an Operating Margin of 22.2%. The Quick Ratio for the company is 3.66 to 1 and the Current Ratio is 4.99 to 1, so very financially healthy.

Earnings per share for 2014 are projecting at $3.39 per share and for next year 2015 it is $3.95 per share. The forward PE is 36.88.
One year EPS Growth 14% and the Earnings for the next 3-5 years is projected at 19%.
 

The IBD rating on Edwards is 99-82-98 so it is probably a hold rating here. Look for a "buy-in" entry point to get into the stock.

Analysts have 12 Buy ratings on the stock and 11 Hold ratings. 

Insider buying on the stock looks good with 71 Buys and 73 Sells for the year.

So when you get the opportunity to buy this one put your heart and your money into it and bet large like Soros and Druckenmiller would do. 

You may already have some sure winners in your portfolio that you should add money to. Take another look at that also. Demand that your money works hard for you.

Take your best shot,

Freewilly

"The Dow Jones is at 17,500 but nobody is cheering like it's a grand bull market. Many a company here has been taken out by an earnings report landmine. Better to stick with a company with a backlog of business like Air Lease Corporation (Symbol AL)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average  17,390.52 - Week Ending 10-30-2014
Dow Jones Industrial Average  17,574.00 - Week Ending 11-07-2014

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average near all time highs you would think that people would be jumping for joy. But many a growth stock has sustained serious damage with revenues beating expectations  but earnings missing sometimes by just a few cents and taking down stock prices by high percentages.

So one way to give yourself a margin of safety is to invest in a company that has a large backlog of business. 

One such company is:

AIR LEASE Corporation , (Symbol AL, $37.60). Air Lease Corp. leases jetliners to just about every carrier in the world. Their main business is providing airlines worldwide with operating leases on new aircraft delivering from direct orders with Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, and ATR. The leases offer customized, creative and flexible leasing structures. 

They also offer sale/lease-back transactions and provide lease expertise to third parties.They also purchase, sell, and remarket aircraft with airlines, manufacturers, financial institutions, and investors worldwide.


As of May 2014, Air Lease had a fleet of 200 aircraft with another 327 aircraft scheduled for delivery over the next 10 years. 

With the current lease backlog of $6.2 billion for 200 aircraft, it is likely that the backlog will nearly double over the next five years with the delivery of another 145 aircraft.

Here are some of the details. The PEG Ratio is 0.414 and the Return on Equity of 9.49%. The PE ratio is 16.58. 

Earnings per share for 2014 will be $2.32 per share and for 2015 it is projected at $2.76.
The dividend yield is 0.43%
 
The company did $1 Billion dollars in Revenues and has a 23.83% profit margin.


The IBD Rating on Air Lease Corp is 84-95-75.
I love that fat earnings growth number.(It is the middle number in the IBD rating).


Analyst have 11 Buy ratings on the stock and 2 hold ratings.

The stock returns for the company have been very respectable and are as follows:

    YTD Return 21.26%    1 Year Return 25.12% and  3 Year Return is 65.48%

I would say that you can go ahead and purchase Air Lease (AL) right here or on any price correction. 

Men with Briefcases. (Mr. & Mrs. Lloyd George, Winston Churchill, Mr. Clarke)

Leasing Airplanes is a good business and should continue to be a good business.


Have a great week and I hope your football team wins.

Freewilly