"Here is the recap of the 2014 Freewilly Blog Picks. I had 7 Up, 6 Down and 1 Even. 3 sectors underperformed - 3D Printing, Oil/Energy, and Heavy Equipment-Rental "

Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,053.71 (Up) Week Ending 12-26-2014

Well I would have done a lot better if I had sold my 3D Printer stocks, DDD and SSYS, back in August at the peak, when they were on the plus side. That is called hindsight and is not allowed in Annual stock picking. Semiconductors, Oil, and Heavy Equipment Rental were not my friend. So my overall total return for my 14 for 2014 stock picks was (-1.164), a small loss for the year.

Here are the winners:
Hain Celestial (HAIN)      UP 31.84%
Arris (ARRS)                     UP 29.23%
Direct TV  (DTV)              UP  29.17%
Berkshire Hathaway "B"  (BRK.B)   UP 28.27%
Yahoo  (YHOO)                  UP 25.12%
 Nike  (NKE)                        UP 23.64% 

If I had just stuck with this group above I would have been in really good shape!

Maybe the more you are diversified, the lesser is your chance of success? That is what Warren Buffett and George Soros think. Maybe something to look at is "Over-Diversification" as an issue in your investing style.

That brings us to the three stocks in the middle. All monster gain stocks in 2013.


Polaris Industries (PII) Up 5.05%
Google (GOOG)  EVEN  0
Golar Nat Gas Transport (GLNG) (-0.25%)

Apple (AAPL) would have been a much better anchor stock for you in 2014 then Google. That may flip flop around in 2015.

 So much for the GOOD and the BAD, I guess I need to tell you about the UGLY and here they are. ALL would have done much better as 6 month picks rather than 1 Year picks.

So here they are:

3D Systems (DDD)  DOWN (-64.20%)
Cree (CREE)  DOWN  (-48.16%)
Stratasys (SSYS)  Down (-35.64%)
Manitex International (MNTX) Down (-21.02%)
Holly Frontier (HFC) Down (19.35%)

It  is amazing that five little stocks could do so much damage to your annual results. 3D Systems and Stratasys and also Google were pouring money back into their business development, instead of worrying about their short term results. Wall Street had no patience for that. Maybe a little too much hyped expectations . CREE did great growing in their LED lighting business but fell short in their semiconductor business. Manitex fell in sympathy with its sector with Hertz Global and United Rentals going down. They are starting to recover now.
 

 
So what can we glean from the results?

1. Don't own too many stocks. It makes it difficult to be successful.
2. When the hype gets ahead of the results in stocks in new technologies like 3D, head for the sidelines. Don't take excessive risk in your investing.
3. Stocks who are tied to commodities like "Oil" can come down no matter how well the company is doing individually.
 
So next week, I will give you my "15 for 2015" Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog picks.

Happy New Year!        


Freewilly

" You always hear from analyst about Mastercard,Visa, and American Express as popular stocks to buy. But for my money here, the best value is Discover Financial Services (Symbol DFS)."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,280.83 (Way Down!) Week Ending 12-12-2014
Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,805 (Way UP!) Week Ending 12-19-2014

I can only hope that we have put in some type of bottom for a while with this drop in oil price. It will allow us some kind of baseline data to calculate how companies will do in 2015.

One company I like here with consumers having that oil savings in their pocket is Discover Financial Services (Symbol DFS, $65.09). (The price a week ago when I started writing this article was $61.81. Busy Christmas chores have delayed me.)

Discover meets my baseline investment criteria having a PEG Ratio of 1.22 and a Return on Equity of 24.09. Pretax ROE is 36%.

Annual revenue for this lesser noticed credit card company is $8.568 Billion dollars. Nothing to sneeze at. Revenue growth has been 6.1% annually.The company offers a annual dividend yield of 1.55%

The company gives off Quarterly Free Cash Flow of $1.026 Billion dollars.

On the Earnings side, the company currently has a low PE of 11.8. The 3-5 year earnings growth has been 35.6%. Earnings per share for 2013 was $4.96 per share. 2014 is projected at $5.25 per share and for 2015 it is projected at $5.53 per share.

The two year stock chart on this stock shows a nice steady and stable rise. The Year to date stock return is 12.24. The One year total return on the stock is 14.41%. the 3 Year return on the stock is 166.8%. So a good long term investment prospect for my taste. I think this would be a good investment for the "Financials" section of your diversified investment or retirement account. Don't try to be a hero in 2015. We have had 3 double digit gain years in a row, so this year you should look to stocks that have given steady returns. I would buy this one on a dip here.

Happy Holidays and eat and be well!

Merry Christmas - Freewilly   

(next week we will review the Freewilly 14 for 2014 picks to see how I did).

"Wild times as the Dow Jones approaches 18,000. Best to stick to basics here, Peg Ratio less then 1.5 and Return on Equity, (ROE) of 15% plus + "

Dow Jones Industrial Average 17,959 (UP) Week Ending 12-05-2014 

It seems like our TV is always on one of the shows presented by this network. Whether it is Food Network with Chopped, Drive-ins Diners and Dives or Restaurant Impossible or on HGTV with Love it or List It or Flip or Flop,  they all seem to be on my television all the time.

 Scripps Network Interactive, Inc. (Symbol SNI , $80.28) is a stock that meets my criteria as a stock to invest in here.  I like the PEG Ratio to be below 1.5 or bless and the stock currently has a PEG ratio of 1.22 according to GuruFocus website. The Return On Equity I like to be at 15% or better and Scripps steps up with a 27.43 ROE, (Return on Equity).

The stock is up 10.2% this year and it also adds a 1% dividend payment. That adds up  to a pretty nice annual return of 11.2%. I think in 2015 you will need to pick out stocks that give you that 10-15% return with the dividend included. It will be tougher to find those 30+ plus returns in 2015 and you may subject yourself to unwarranted risk trying to attain it.

The company has a market capitalization of $11 Billion dollars. SNI generates quarterly Free Cash flow of $248.42 Million dollars. Profit Margin is 40.1%. The company has a healthy balance sheet with a Quick Ratio or 6.3 dollars in Assets for every 1 dollar of Liability. Revenues last year were $2.651 Billion dollars.

 5 Year earnings growth for the company has been 16.4%. Earnings per share for 2013 were $3.68 and for 2014 we are looking at $3.90 per share and for 2015 we are projecting $4.47 per share. The current PE is 20.4 and the future PE based on projected earnings is 17.97. Expected earnings growth for this year is 12.07%.

Annual Net income for the company is $522 Million dollars. The IBD rating on earnings is 69 and the SMR Rating, (Sales+ Profit Margins+ ROE) is rated "A". The company has 102.8 millions shares outstanding.

The secret of this company is that there customers are interactive with their TV shows. The last Food Network Star for example was picked by the audience in the last show. This one is a winner that you can buy at anytime here. Stock symbol SNI.

Two of my favorite characters above from the show based on the real estate market in Toronto Canada, Love It or List It.

Freewilly