"Are we there yet? Are we there yet on the end of the slide in Gold, Silver, and Copper? Well if we're not, then we are pretty darn close. Close enough to buy FCX and SLW"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 14.799.40  (That is not a typo, Way DOWN) Week ending 06-21-2013

Bart Simpson: "Are we there Yet?",  Homer Simpson:"No!"  
But in the case of Freeport McMoran (Symbol FCX) and Silver Wheaton (Symbol SLW), you can start to accumulate some positions in their stocks. 

Remember, my blog's tenet is to look for 1 year to 3 year investments. These investments mentioned above will experience turbulence over the next 6 months, but I think a lot of the speculators have been rung out of the market. 
Also with all the quantitative easing liquidity pumped into the market, there is no doubt that commodity inflation is bound to be in our future.

Freeport -McMoRan Copper & Gold (Symbol FCX , $27.61)

is also diversified with owning two oil exploration companies. They currently pay right up front a 4.53% dividend.  Freeport-McMoRan is projecting 2013 earnings of $3.05 per share and 2014 is looking like $3.82 per share. Last year, the company had revenues of almost 18 Billion dollars for the year. 

The Return on Equity is 18.48% and the PEG ratio is 0.68, so this is a perfect pick by my parameters. The forward PE is a low 7.54.  Even if you have some short term hits on earnings in the stock for a couple of quarters, this one is a long term winner.




Silver Wheaton (Symbol SLW, $19.67) is your silver pick. Silver Wheaton Corp. is a precious metal streaming company. It is engaged in the exploration of silver and gold. The company explores silver through the Luismin, 
Zinkgruvan, Yauliyacu, Peñasquito, Cozamin, Barrick and Other mines and the silver and gold 
through the Minto mine and corporate operations. Its subsidiaries include Silver Wheaton 
Caymans Ltd. and Silverstone Resources Barbados Corp. 


SLW pays a 2.4% dividend up front. The Return on Equity is 20.21% and the PEG Ratio is 0.63, so very fine numbers. The company had revenues last year of 856 Million dollars with Gross profit margins of 66.88%.

2013 Earnings are looking like $1.50 per share and for 2014, should be around $1.62 per share. The forward PE is 11.19. Good time to put some silver in your portfolio.
The key to silver is that it is used commercially for electronics and that there is limited future supply. Buy some FCX and SLW in small parcels and build a position.

Bart says, "Count your chickens as they hatch." 

Freewilly says, "You need to have a carton of eggs in hand first and then you will surely end up with chickens."

Freewilly

"If you can't beat this wild VIX, then maybe you should buy the VIX. Own shares in the CBOE Chicago Board Options Exchange."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,070.18 (Down) Week ending 06-14-2013

They say if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Well, you can actually buy shares in the institution that generates the index for the VIX. Have no fear! Buy the CBOE , Chicago Board Options Exchange, which trades as a stock itself.

Wikipedia says, "VIX is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period."

CBOE Holdings, Inc. (Symbol CBOE, $42.61)

Return on Equity 65.76% and PEG Ratio 1.63  

Zero Debt and a 1.4% Dividend. 

A "Freewilly Type" investment with these four attributes.

Earnings per share for 2013 will be $1.97 and for 2014 looking like $2.27 per share.

With a Current Ratio of 4:1, this holding company is in great financial shape.

Commodities are a hot number that will never go away, so you will be able to bank on this now and in the future without any of that FEAR that the CBOE measures.


So, go ahead and grab some shares, and sleep soundly at night.

                               Freewilly

"Who's the guy that is making recommendations that you buy stock in the face of these chilling 100 point DOW drop off days? Oh that would be me. BUY- Standard Motor Products Inc. (symbol SMP)."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15,248.12 (UP)  Week ending 06-07-2013

I have been running behind by a week for the last few weeks. The time demands of the garden and family take over this time of year and you are always trying to catch up, but living is what it is all about, so you blog when and where you can.
     When things get dicey in the stock market, you can always go to one safe haven to buy stocks that will go up over time.  I am talking about - Auto Parts and Parts company stocks.  Names like AutoZone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Gentherm Inc., Precision Cast Parts, Borg Warner, American Axle, Manufacturing Holdings Inc. and Genuine Parts Company have performed very well in the long term,  no matter what the stock market is doing in the short term.

So that brings us to today's pick:

Standard Motor Products Inc. (Symbol SMP, $ 34.42)

Standard makes all kinds of widgets for your car and truck. Engine, Ignition and Emission are their primary focus areas. SMP has a Return on Equity of 15.73% and has a PEG Ratio 1.22. My stats are coming from Yahoo Finance now because Smartmoney has shut down that section and forwarded you to MarketWatch. Not very helpful, folks.

SMP is projecting 2013 earnings per share of $2.28 and the 2014 is forecasted at $2.53 per share. The forward PE on the stock is 13.6.
Revenues for the company this year 2013 are looking like 995 Million dollars. The company has Zero Debt, which is always a nice feature. There are 23 Million Shares of the stock in total.

Year over Year Earnings growth has been 81.82%.
Gross Profit Margins have run 35.22%. 
The company pays a 1.28% dividend currently.
The one year Total Return on the stock has been 174.92 % 
but I do not expect it to be anywhere near as high next year, but still good.

So, when the VIX starts running wild, with sudden and dramatic shifts in the stock market landscape, you will be safe and happy with another one of the successful parts stocks companies that seem to always do well over the long term.

Buy SMP for a 3 -5 year investment in your portfolio.

Thanks and enjoy your weekend. Now I need to find a subject for this week's blog and maybe I will finally catch up!

Freewilly

"I stopped by the front steps of a vintage famous banker's home from the golden age of banking for inspiration to come up with a great bank stock for you. The spirits lead me to M & T Bank (Symbol MTB)"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15115.57 (Down) Week ending 05-31-2013

(Photo by Hillary Glenn) 

In the grand days of banking, Anthony Drexel, Junius Morgan and J. Pierpont Morgan teamed up into an international colossus of a banking company, Drexel & Company and J.P. Morgan & Company. One man who started as a clerk at this firm, who was always the first one to arrive at work each day, and who eventually worked his way all the way up to Senior operating partner, was Edward T. Stotesbury. 

The portico columns to the left above were the front entrance to E.T. Stotesbury's multi-million dollar estate, Whitemarsh Hall, which was built from 1916 to 1921 , designed by famed architect Horace Trumbauer and was known as the "Versailles of America."

Whitemarsh Hall - Home of E.T. Stotesbury

At his peak of wealth in the 1920s, E.T. Stotesbury was worth over 100 Million dollars, first from banking and later in the traction and railroad transportation business. The 147 room estate is gone now, but there are relics of the old estate all over the 300-acre parcel in Springfield, Montgomery County in PA and, I dare say, a lingering "spirit of E.T." around the grounds. 

I am lucky enough to live within a mile of this grand display. I stopped by with family yesterday and stood at these steps and pictured the majestic estate in my mind. 

Will Rogers, Henry Ford, J.P. Morgan, General Douglas MacArthur and many U.S. Presidents and Crown Princes have all stood at the front door below these columns.

Jim Cramer, the famed financial guru from the CNBC business show Mad Money and the Street.com, grew up with his house basically in the front yard of this grand estate. At some point, I want to ask Jim if this estate was an inspiration for him and what spirited him to his voracious appetite for all things financial. 

My nephews, Edward Zwicker and Charles Zwicker, were certainly inspired by E.T. They wrote the Images of America Arcadia book,  Whitemarsh Hall - The Estate of Edward T. Stotesbury, (see link), which can really give you the full story of this palatial estate. 

The spirit of the conservative and frugal E.T., (his second wife Eva spent all the money), directed me to a bank chock full of earnings and a bank that has a nice dividend.


M & T Bank Corp. (Symbol MTB, $102.68)

M & T Bank pays a dividend yield of 2.73% annually. It has a Return on Equity of 11.27% and a PEG Ratio of 0.97, so pretty good numbers. 2013 earnings per share are looking like $8.20 per share and the 2014 numbers look like $8.77 per share. 

The 5 year earnings growth has been 10.14% annually. The 1 Year Total Return is 29.84% and the 3 Year Total Return has been 36.64% , so a good solid performer for your portfolio. The forward PE on the stock is 12.5

Operating Margins are 36.64% and Net Margins are 22.67%. The company has an Enterprise Value of $133.57 per share. 

In these turbulent markets, you need some mooring and consistency. MTB can provide this for you and your portfolio.


So keep your cool and hang in there...........    

Freewilly