The results are in for the 2020 picks for the year. 12.14% return was the average without dividends added in. Good, but once again Growth beat Value in 2020

Dow Jones Industrial Average Week Ending 12/25/2020 $30,199.87 (Up) 0.23% S & P 500 3703.06 (Up) 0.35%

<<<<<<<< 2020 as a Highway The results are in for 2020. Hard to talk about stocks at all in 2020 with 1.76 Million people worldwide dead from the Covid 19 pandemic. We need to move forward under the caution flag. Be smart and do not get complacent especially as we wait for many Covid 19 vaccines to arrive. People still need to work on improving their position for savings and retirement. The show must go on, at least in investing. Here are the 2020 picks which averaged +12.14% :

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PayPal (PYPL) + 117.17% --- Adobe Systems (ADBE) +52.50% --- Timkin Inc. (TKR) +36.62% --- Progressive Insurance (PGR) +33.93% --- Eli Lilly (LLY) +30.41% --- Levi Strauss Company (LEVI) +11.72% --- Nestles Company (NSRGY) +7.32% --- Goldman Sachs (GS) + 5.31% --- Medtronic (MDT) +2.87% --- Phillip Morris (PM) +1.18% --- Waste Management (WM) 4.38%

... and the losers: ..... Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) -1.36% --- Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) -8.11% --- Mylan/Viatris (Merger) (MYL/VTRS) - 11.69% --- Goodyear Tire (GT) -32.88% ---- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -55.06%

I will formulate the 2021 Value Picks and post them in another future blog. >>>>>>>>> I am having some troubles with the blogger interface moving now to HTML and every logo I try to snatch to use now has licensing fees. I do not earn anything from my blog posts. It is to assist other investors, not make money from my post. ( If I want to make money, I will simply purchase and hold the stock picks that I am recommending!!!!) Have a Happy Holiday and a Healthy and Prosperous new year - 2021 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Freewilly

2020 continues on, Covid is rampant everywhere, the US election is mostly decided and stocks, well, they keep moving up. What you need are some "teflon" stock ideas.

 Dow Jones Industrial Average 29,263.28  (Down , but way up since my last post)

 S & P 500 Index - 3557.54 

So how do you function with long term investing during a full blown worldwide Covid virus pandemic and during a feverishly pitched, disputed election here in the United States?  You need to calmly stand back from all the noise and kind of look at things from above and use the same guide and metrics you always have for buying good companies.  Companies that are "Teflon" coated,  so that turbulent market conditions seem to just slip off them.

Look for solid Return on Investment, Return of Equity, growth in earnings for next year, and very importantly little or no debt. Like Peter Lynch said, "I never met a company that went out of business that had no debt".

I have not been posting for awhile because of excessive speculation in many of the Covid "growth" stocks. You will not find stocks like Zoom,  DocuSign or Teledocs here in my blog.  I will not invest in "Castles in the Air" stocks. These "single tiered product"  stocks can only lead to great future pain. The % percentages are not with you for stumbling upon an Amazon, Tesla, or Netflix.  Those are the more rare exceptions. 

I put together a list of 5 stocks, all of which I own in some capacity, that I think can bridge you over to the future fairly unscathed. 

Quest Diagnostics, (Symbol DGX, $124.81)

 Testing, Testing and more testing. Earnings will stack up in 2021.  Forward PE of 12.42. Return on Equity of 18.7%. Also pays a dividend.

        Generac Holdings Inc. , (Symbol GNRC, $222.97)

         Ever have the power go out at your home? With the climate conditions and old power grid infrastructure it is happening more and more often. Exploding earnings growth. Great ROE and ROI. Ultimately, they will go head to head with Tesla for the market of power backup and battery backup in homes and business.

Target Corporation , (Symbol TGT, $172.31)

 Brick and mortar, web on line ordering, and adding Ulta Beauty boutique stores within their existing stores. I went in Target and this is where all the young people shop. Again, exploding earnings and sales growth. Great ROE and ROI.  They can ship you your toilet paper and paper towels. They are making money. 

Newmont Corporation , (Symbol NEM, $61.65)

With a possible 4 Trillion $$ in stimulus coming with the Democrats winning the election, this is your hedge against a devaluing dollar and future inflation. 40,000 ounces of gold in their inventory. This company makes money, pays a dividend, and is ESG friendly in their basic materials space. Forward PE of 13.60. Great                                                                                            Current Ratio and very little debt. Buy it.

McKesson Corporation, (Symbol MCK, $169.87)

 A Return on Equity of 39.40%. These are the guys that were picked by the current US Government to distribute the Covid vaccine when released. A forward PE of 9.61 this company is gushing earnings. One skeleton in their closet is the Opioid lawsuit settlement with the other pharma distributors.  But this will be settled out and paid over a number of years. But with $ 234 Billion in sales last year, it would take a very large iceberg to take this ship off course. 😊

"Finally he is getting something down on paper."

Be very careful at your Thanksgiving gatherings.  Was your hands and keep your mask on. It may seem silly, but you increase your odds of staying healthy. Also get your normal Flu shots from your doctor or pharmacy.

Thanks and Happy Holidays,

Freewilly

Robinhood - He takes from the rich and gives to the poor, that is the principle anyway. Save a little on the side for Richard the LionHeart to rule the land fairly

Dow Jones Industrial Average 25,871.46  (Up) week ending 06/19/2020  -  S & P 500 3,097.74  (up)

...And so we enter the age of Robinhood. Swarms of new retail customers, both young and old, armed with their shiny new cell phones, loaded up with their new Robinhood stock trading application. 

It has all gone swimmingly so far to begin with,  with a high volatility upside time period and a move of 40%. You could buy pretty much any retail stock, regional bank, airline, cruise line, oil stock, casino stocks, industrial stocks, Boeing or some Fintech stocks and made an easy, easy gain. It made it look so easy.

Some people even used leverage on the application borrowing money and invested it for extra leverage. (The 4th deadly sin of investing, unless you are George Soros or Stanley Druckenmiller and you know what your are doing.)

But those fun and easy times are over now.  Like in the movie Robinhood with Errol Flynn, King John is trying to lure you to come into the castle for the big target shooting competition and bring your bank account, and it turns out once again that it is a trap!  

Head for Sherwood Forest! You could lose your head, or even worse yet your new found money and more. 

So if you decide to come to this competition against the Pro traders and their computer algorithms,  you better be armed with the proper bow and arrows.

I would recommend to find a simple stock screen program and search for stocks that have a Current Ratio of at least 3 to 1.  I would also screen those same companies and pick/screen through ones that have a Return on Equity of at least 15% or higher.

This should keep you out of the "big trouble",  working from this screened list. Like Peter Lynch said, " No company ever went broke that didn't have any debt".

 .... And, if you are going to fall in love with a stock, like Robinhood with Maid Marion, decide ahead of time at what gain % you want to sell and take a profit.  Also if you have made a mistake, that is OK, just acknowledge it as soon as possible, sell the stock, and move on. The best of investors has made mistakes and learned from it. Call it the cost of your stock trading education.

So young Will Scarlet, don't try to steal any mutton from a sword wielding Friar Tuck! If you purchase any stock options, know that you could lose all your money. (All , every cent).

Just stay within or develop a trading discipline. Mine is Value Investing, but there are many successful traders using all different trading techniques and disciplines, including being long and short the stock market at the same time. Find what works best for you.

Best of luck!  Keep your eyes open and learn what your personal risk tolerance is for trading stocks.

 Best Regards,

Freewilly   06/21/2020

Lauren Templeton - "Trouble is Opportunity" Ideas from her Great Uncle Sir John Templeton, Value investor

Investing the Templeton Way   <<<<<   Click the link to the left <<<<<   to see Lauren's talk and presentation at Google. Some words of wisdom.

Happy Easter and Passover,

Freewilly

Posting a blog for Low-Income investors to get started investing. It is from a request on Facebook to Consuelo Mack's Wealthtrack page post to invite a guess to speak about low-income investing

Dow Jones Industrial Average 21,410  (UP ) Week ending 03/27/2020
S&P 500 2520.00

 The Wilson's, my dad, vintage 1919-1920

Social media is a great incubator of ideas. I was responding to a Facebook post under the WEALTHTRACK site from Carol C. from New York that was interested in Consuelo Mack inviting a guess to address investing for low income investors. So I thought I would give it a shot here. 
      I have a little first hand experience with low income. My father, who was a bus driver, died when I was 5.  I remember doing my mom's taxes back in the late 60's and her income came to $8000.00 a year plus Social Security for me. I had never realized that we were so poor. I never felt like it though,  because my mom Marie, was the best deployer of capital that I have ever known.

I posted a picture of my grandmother Wilson with my Dad and his brother and sisters back from 1920. I guess that most folks were low income during that time period. 

This week on Wealthtrack, Consuelo Mack invited 3rd generation investor Christopher Davis from the Davis Funds.  Wealth Track - Consuelo Mack - Christopher Davis interview click here .  

 Consuelo Mack 

Christopher Davis reflects on his family and how well that they have done with bank stocks which historically have been very good at compounding wealth.  So I will put my low income ideas about how you can get started buying bank stocks as a low income investor.  ****I should note*****  that I am not a Series 7 listed financial adviser , but low-income folks do not usually have a financial adviser ! , so I can only offer the ideas of an amateur investor with 40 plus years of investing experience. I should note, that I am a Value investor and follow that disipline.

So here we go with some low priced bank stocks.

KeyCorp (symbol KEY)  buy 5 shares @ 11.20 = $56.00 total. 
Currently pays a 6.61% dividend

Citizens Financial Group (Symbol CFG) buy 5 shares @19.96 = $99.80 total.  Currently pays a 7.82% dividend

Regions Financial - (Symbol RF) buy 5 shares @ 9.67 = $48.35 total. Currently pays a 6.41 % dividend

Bank of America (Symbol BAC) which was the first bank to let women open accounts!, Buy 5 shares @ $21.60 = $108.00 total

So those are the banking stock ideas to get started. If you want a couple different sector stocks to be diversified to balance out your risk, here are two that I like.

ADT Inc. (Symbol ADT)  Buy 10 shares @ $4.71 = $47.10 .  It pays a 2.97% dividend

Good Year Tire and Rubber Company (Symbol GT) Buy 10 shares @ $6.32 = $63.20.  It currently pays a 10.13% dividend.

Understand that these are turbulent times in the stock market so these prices may move up or down a bit. 

You can open up an account with one of the on-line investing companies. Some offer to give you the first few trades or all the trades free. You will have to do some homework on this.

 Picture of my hero Lou Rukeyser from "Wall Street Week". The reason I started this blog.

Have a wonderful Sunday,

Freewilly

The Perfect Storm - Covid 19 - Saudi-Russia oil dispute - Treasury bills - 10Year. - dropping below 1 percent. Just when you thought that you saw everything, now this rolls out

Dow Jones Industrial Averages 19,173.98  WAY >>>Down  - Week ending 03/20/2020
S & P 500  2304.92   

"The Perfect Storm" 

I have seen a lot of stuff over the last 50 years, but nothing ever that looked like this. Whole industries are being shut down for 30, 60 , 90 days, who knows?  New York, California, Pennsylvania shutting down whole states and people sheltering in place. You could never dream up anything like this. Risk tolerance?  That all went out the window. This was soul searching, gut checking survival mode. You better have had a plan coming into this. Value investing with a durable high quality line up of companies both in my 401K and IRA accounts was my plan. Very little in Bonds, safe liquid stuff all in money market instruments. Do not like bonds here. Rather S&P 500 Index funds.

Still in the short term,  I got crushed just like everybody else. As devastating as it all has been, it has been crazy interesting watching the rotations and movements on a daily basis.
New great deals popping up on a hourly basis with big flashing lights saying ,"buy me Now", then poof disappearing from sight. Extraordinary! 

Well right now , just like in the Perfect Storm movie, we are in a little calm spot in the eye of the storm. Maybe half-way, a little more, towards a market bottom. But those 80 foot waves will be back again on Monday, and this thing is all heading down further. Some will lose there nerve and capitulate and sell.  That will not be me or any of my Freewilly Stockpicker Blog followers. We will be be diving for pearls during the storm. 

Here is what to look for as they pop up at great prices:

Nvidia (Symbol NVDA) is like the Hope diamond of stocks. If you can grab 25, 50, 75 shares go ahead and do it as it dives down. 

Facebook, (Symbol FB).  They are stepping in as "lender of last resort" for the small businesses that are their customers. Friggin brilliant!  a Value stock here with lots of cash and growth on the horizon and Instagram. Damn right!

EOG Resources (Symbol EOG) is the "Apple" of the oil industry with a pristine balance sheet. They can make money with $30.00 WTI oil.  They just cut back on $2 Billion of CapEx spending. Hunker down to own this great company in the oil patch. 

Verizon Communications Inc. (Symbol VZ) - A low cost 5G play focused on wireless and has a rock solid dividend of 4.75%.  Use this stock as a bond yield proxy. Super safe.

Oshkosh Corporation (Symbol OSK) These guys have government contracts to build the replacement vehicle for the US Army and Marines that is replacing the Hummer. It is down 40% from its highs.  Consider this one "Shelter from the Storm".

Kinder Morgan Inc. (Symbol KMI)  They threw the baby out with the bath water. Rock solid company, good balance sheet and lots of insider buying. 

There are many more names that will flash up this week. Think long term, Quality, good Return on equity. The world is not going to end this week and you need to eventually retire , right?

 "Sammy Davis Jr. Jr. - (the dog in) - Everything is Illuminated"

Grab the Tums, Rolaids, Mylanta and Coca Cola syrup.  Fasten your seat belt, lock your doors, roll up the sidewalks,  it is going to be a wild ride. You will be fine.  Don't get scared and please do wash your hands and stay clear of this dreadful virus.

We are all in this together,

Peace

Freewilly

Lessons of a Value Investor. It all appears obvious to you , so sometimes you buy your value stock too early. It can be difficult to calculate timing in a market full of Long/Short Hedge funds.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:  28,992.41 Down Week ending 02/21/2020
S & P 500: 3337.75  Down.

This week's blog is to try to help you to avoid mistakes in buying a value stock too early. I want you to learn from my mistakes.

So I bought some Altria (Symbol MO, $45.89) which always pays a very nice dividend.  I was anticipating with the investment in Cronos, that they shortly would become the world's commanding commercial producer of marijuana cigarettes. The USA Federal legalization of the product must be imminent, with so many states moving to legalize and tax it. Colorado was already making millions in tax revenue, and the federal government would surely follow to help pay off the Federal budget deficit. Nope, still waiting and collecting my 7.32% dividend.  Altria got tangled up with their investment in JUUL the vaping product, which is now on its way to becoming an $8 billion right down for the company. So too early on this one.

Lesson 1:  You must take into account the whole company strategy when buying a stock. I bought MO as a marijuana investment stake and the politics came in and said that JUUL was marketing to children with all its flavors. Also knock off Vape brands were causing health problems with vaping. Altria had no way to see all this coming and either did I. So my mistake, not waiting until the US federal government actually legalized the product. 

Goodyear Tire & Rubber company, (Symbol GT, $10.85) was a value buy at $14.00.  2019 earnings were good, but now there is a dip down in 2020 earnings.  2021 earnings will be very, very good. I bought it too early,  not looking at the 2020 earning year dip down.  I am in it too early so now I need to wait.  It is my contention that Goodyear is a technology company and is worth more than it appears. Even electric cars have tires that will wear out and need to be replaced with new tires.  GT is a consumer goods company trading below its book value. I would buy it in a couple months.

Lesson 2:  Always be on the lookout for a temporary earnings dip down. Buy during the dip, not before it.

Three other stocks I bought too early: Gulfport Energy (Symbol GPOR, $1.26) need to wait for Natural Gas prices to recover. Stock has a PE of 1.

Orasure Technologies (Symbol OSUR, $6.09) has a pristine balance sheet. This company actually makes influenza test kits at a time when we have a large worldwide Coronavirus outbreak.  How can they not be capitalizing on this? They must have been caught flat footed. Earnings are actually suppose to be even or negative in 2021. Somewhere though there is a winner here. Where are the revenue gains? Again I must wait. 

Finally there is Dupont de Neumours Inc. (Symbol DD, $52.43).  Finally Breen is in charge! This one just needs to get on track. The earnings are coming. So I sit and wait. 

(Note*** For some reason Blogger is not letting me upload any pictures. The spell checker is also not easily available for use. I am not sure what is going on????)

I would be raising cash right now because this CoronaVirus is causing major tie ups with people and merchandise movement in and out of Hong Kong. There will be at least a 2 quarter slow down with lot's of earnings and revenue misses. 

Have a great new week,

Freewilly

Finally a catalyst to pick up some shares of the perrenial value stock, FCAU, Fiat Chrysler Automotive. New partnership on the horizon.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 29,348.10  (UP) Week ending 1-17-2020 - S & P 500 Average 3,329.62

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. has been a very inexpensive stock here for years with a PE of 7.4 and a forward PE of 4.5.  (IBD has the Automotive Sector ranked at #number 3 currently.) FCAU has been touted and owned by value investors like Monish Pabrai of Pabrai Investments and also by Bill Nygren at OakMark Funds. Stocks in the automotive sector can move like molasses in January, but now I think there is an upcoming catalyst and an opportunity to move the share price substantially forward. 

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, (Symbol FCAU, $13.75) is in discussions with FoxConn Technology, the large Apple I-Phone manufacturer and assembler, to form a 50/50 partnership to build and sell electric cars to China. Voila!  I think this gives the stock the fuel to rise up in 2020. Varoom!

FCAU has many nice brands in house. It also has a sweet 5.26% dividend kicker for you while you wait for bigger things to happen.  I picked some shares up myself.

I also picked up some of one of my 2020 yearly picks,  Good Year Tire & Rubber, (symbol GT),  which was at a bargain price of $14.93.   I believe Good Year is moving towards being a technology company and offering other services, rather than just being a high end commodity tire company.  

Just remember whether your car runs on Gasoline, Electricity, Propane, or Hydrogen, it will still need tires,  which are a product that wears out over time and needs to be replaced.

 "January is a great time to review your 401K contribution. Pay yourself first!"

Be patient. Wait for the right price to buy.

Freewilly