"Freewilly's Stockpicker blog, Thirteen for 2013 stock picks. A roundtable of selections with just me at the table picking."

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,938.11 (Down) Week ending 12-28-2012

Well, it is that time of year when we whisk together that great alchemy of prognostication that we call the "yearly stock picks".  Barron's does their Round table conversations this time of year with a bunch of the great financial investors of the world who present their ideas and picks for the new year. I have a much smaller cafe table that I work at to make my picks and I am the only one at my table making the picks. So without further ado, here are my top 13 picks to invest in for the new year.

Freewilly’s Stockpicker Blog “13 for 2013”

MasterCard Inc. (Symbol MA)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (Symbol CMG)

Facebook (Symbol FB)

PetSmart Inc. (Symbol PETM)

Whole Foods Markets (WFM)

Davita Healthcare Partners Inc. (Symbol DVA)

Phillip Morris International Inc. (Symbol PM)

Borg Warner Inc. (Symbol BWA)

Scripps Network Interactive Inc. (Symbol SNI)

Anheuser- Busch Inbev SA  (Symbol BUD)

Celgene Inc. (Symbol CELG)

Diageo Inc. (Symbol DEO)

Ebay Inc. (Symbol EBAY)

I think this portfolio has a very "Peter Lynch" flavor to it. There are a lot of high dollar trading stocks, yet these stocks seem to me to all be undervalued based on their growth.  These are stocks that have a good outlook for the next 1 to 3 years and I feel will give you the best return with no downside surprises. I think there will be many downside surprises in 2013 from all the changes that the government is making. In that sense, my picks are really defensive, because they are defended by their growth.  I think many slow growth/ high dividend stocks that have done well in 2012, will be under pressure in the new year and sell off. They seem to be trading at higher PE's than is sustainable for those type of stocks.

I also have some stocks that get honorable mention for 2013, buy could not break into the list above, and will not be counted in my tally at the end of 2013. Apple (AAPL) , Microsoft (MSFT), Nissan Motors (NSANY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Yahoo (YHOO), Panera Bread (PNRA) , and Nam Tai Electronics (NTE). 

So get together with your friends and discuss them while your drinking your toast on New Year's Eve and then comment on the blog and offer other better ideas if you have them. (No Penny stocks please, we don't buy them at anytime!). See you on the other side, in 2013.

Freewilly

"Time to review this past year's "12 for 2012" picks, to see how I did with my stock picks"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,190 (Down) Week ending 12-21-2012

Well, it is that time of year when we look to see how my 2012 "12 for 2012 stock picks" performed for this year. Many of these prices have moved quite a bit just in this last week.  YTD stats, I am taking off of the CNBC quote website. I will list them by best to worst in performance:

Lululemon (LULU)  -                    Up 61.81 %
PPG Industries Inc. (PPG) -         Up 61.80 %
Goldman Sachs  (GS)  -                Up 36.03 %
Cummins Inc. (CMI) -                  Up 22.60 %
Seadrill Inc. (SDRL) -                  Up 11.95 %
J. M. Smucker Co.  -                    Up 10.33 %
Stanley,Black& Decker (SWK)- Up  8.10 %
CSX Railroad -   (CSX)                Down (-5.41) %   
Potash Inc. (POT)                         Down (-6.31) %
Freeport McMoran (FCX)           Down (-12.55) %
Alcatel Lucent (ALU)                   Down (-15.34) %

 So if you had purchased this portfolio of 12 stocks, in equal weights of shares, you would have been up 14.42% for the year, and that does not include dividends, which would have brought you up to a 15 -16% return.  Not to bad, but I will try to improve on this next year 2013.

If you are a reader of my blog, I hope in 2013 that you will ask more questions and post more comments, good or bad on my blog. 
We can learn from each other. I do not make money from this blog. (I have a few Amazon links down the bottom of the page that I have made $1.62 cents on, yet to be paid,  because you have to get up to $10.00 before they will pay you!). 

I do this blog to help people with making stock investments. I make money by investing in my ideas. Too many times I talk to people locally and I hear of them putting money into speculative stocks priced under $5, thinking that they are investing. Speculation is Speculation, but it is not investing. It is the same as going to a casino or playing the lottery, but it is NOT INVESTING!  If there is one thing you take away from this blog, it is that buying things like penny stocks is speculation, and it is not investing for your future. Investments take time, and should be made in businesses that are growing and that will continue to grow for the next 3 -5 years. 

 Freewilly (a.k.a David Wilson)

I want to take this moment to thank my wife Deborah (picture left), for all her support with Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog, and to my daughter and Editor , Molly, (picture right), who just loves fixing all my fragmented sentences.
I most of all I want to thank my readers from all over the world, for tuning in every once in a while.

 From our family to yours, we wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New year.

Freewilly


Thanks for stopping by and reading. My 2013 picks should be coming soon in
Blog #163.

"Follow the Yellow Brick Road to the Emerald City. You might not find the wizard there, but you will find a company stock, (ORCL), with tremendous revenues"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,135.01 (Down) Week ending 12-14-2012

There is a company that had the same sales and earnings dollar numbers this year as the company Google, (whose stock trades at $700.00), and yet if you follow the yellow brick road to the Emerald City, which is the headquarters of this other company , you can buy their stock for only $31.96 for a share.  Sound interesting?  The company is: 

Oracle Corp. (Symbol ORCL,$31.96)  Return on Equity 23.88% and PEG Ratio 1.01

Oracle 2012 sales $37,121 mil, (Google $37,862 mil), and Oracle Net 2012 earnings were $10,100 mil, (Google $9,737 mil). Pretty strange huh? 

Oracle Corp. is projecting 2013 earnings per share of $2.66 per share and 2014 of $2.91 per share. Oracle is only growing at half the pace that Google is growing, but still had 5 years sales growth of 13.10 % and 5 year earnings growth of 17.11%. 

Here is a really amazing stat. The 3 year total return on Oracle Corp. is 34.70% and is actually higher than Goggle's 3 year Total Return. 

I think Oracle gives you a nice safe way to get a very good return on your investment. 

Oracle is also going to benefit with the building of the infrastructure of the ObamaCare program.. ORCL is a subcontractor to help build the database software for state exchanges to facilitate the deployment of the program.

So you won't need a wizard to come from behind a curtain to give you a brain like the scarecrow to make some money.. Sometimes we look for some obscure stock to try to make money when we really need just to look at the stocks that are right in front of us.

                                                       Hopefully the Wizard will be ready with a hot air balloon for us so that we have some way to traverse over the Fiscal Cliff and get back to Kansas. 

The Wizard and Dorothy say Buy some Oracle Corp. !     Freewilly

"Fiscal Cliff, ObamaCare, Alternative Minimum Tax, Mayan apocalypse, Governments broke, Unemployment, it's all enough to drive you to drink, and drink they do"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13,151.13 (UP)  Week ending 12-07-2012

“In wine there is wisdom, in beer there is Freedom, in water there is bacteria.” 
― Benjamin Franklin

“Here's to alcohol, the rose colored glasses of life.” 
― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Beautiful and Damned

Oh, will we ever make it through the next 6 months, or in the case of the Mayan calender and the pending apocalypse, the next 14 days? We can't predict what events will take place. What we can predict though is that in all cases, people will be drinking.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger love beverage stocks because they are great machines that generate a lot of cash.

The first stock I want to look at can also generate a great Black & Tan beer combo.

Diageo PLC ADS (Symbol DEO, $120.45)  Return on Equity 39.06%  PEG Ratio 1.47

You can see in the picture above that Diageo makes some of the great drinks of the world. DEO just squeezed in under my PEG ratio limit of 1.50 and is a little rich here but well worth it. 2013 fiscal year earnings are projected at $6.59 per share and for June 2014, $7.35 per share. Diageo, based in London, UK., has a 5 year average sales gain of 6.61% annually and 5 year earnings growth of 6.29% , not earth shattering but steady numbers. 

Projected Long-term EPS is 12.57%.

The really nice holiday cheer in this stock is the 12 Month total return of the stock of 41.17% and a 3 year total return of 87.09%.  (That will buy you a bunch of Captain Morgan Rum, Aye.)

Well, now I am off to my next pick which is:  

Anheuser-Busch InBev N.V. ADS (Symbol BUD, $87.75)  Return on Equity of 19.33% and PEG ratio of 1.25

BUD, the great American icon of beer and beer advertising, has had 5 years sales growth of 18.65%. Budweiser has merged together with dutch brewer InBev N.V. , and has continued their dominance of the US beer market. 2012 earnings are projected at $4.63 per share and 2013 earnings of $5.08. The projected long-term EPS for the company is forecasted at a very healthy 14.73%. 2011 yearly revenue sales were 28 billion for the company and looks like it will be $31-32 Billion for 2012. 

In-Bev N.V. has quickly been paying off the debt burden it took on to buy Anheuser-Busch , and the balance sheet seems to be in good shape and manageable. The most important thing though is that the 12 month total return on the stock is 47.93% and the 3 year Total return on the stock has been 72.40%. 

Both of these stocks can be purchased here and tucked away for next year.

 Two other beverage stocks you could also look at are Boston Beer Company (Symbol SAM) and Coca Cola (Symbol KO).

So don't end up like this guy on the E-Trade commercial with the surprised baby, trying to win your retirement with lottery tickets, (one of my favorite commercials by the way). Instead, buy some cash generating beverage stocks and keep them in your stock portfolio.

Freewilly

"Get ready to take some small bites of Chipotle Mexican Grill (symbol CMG) with some pinto beans (with a little bacon), and guacamole. Buy 5 and 10 shares at a time and average in"

Dow Jones Industrial Average 13025.58 (UP) Week ending 11-30-2012

Good evening. I'm Freewilly and this is "Freewilly's Stockpicker Blog" , Welcome back. "Just remember, It's just your money. It's not your life. The figures on a broker's report mean little compared to that. The people who loved you a week ago still love you today." 

Sound familiar? It's an introduction from Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week". I probably should have saved it for a January 2013 blog for when we dive over the Fiscal Cliff like Bill Murray and that groundhog in the movie, or Thelma and Louise. The compromise offered so far by the administration has been laughable and has gone in the opposite direction from compromise. The good news is that it is propelling a lot of company declared December special dividends which can be seen at this link put together by 24/7 Wall Street : "Special December dividends"  . You might want to grab one of these to get the dividend.

But, on we go to the current topic. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (Symbol CMG, $263.78) is a dynamic growth company that only has 31.5 Million shares outstanding.  It has a Return on Equity of 23.70% and a PEG ratio of 1.21. The stock is actually down 18 or 19% this year so it has consolidated its gains and gives you a good entry point to start accumulating it.  I suggest buying it at 5 to 10 shares at a time to build a position over time.

5 year sales growth here has been 21.80% and the 5 year earnings growth has been a rollicking 43.55%. With 2.3 Billion in sales this company is a Mid-Cap, just in it's infancy stage. The three year Total Return on the stock has been 211%, so you had to have a little cooling off phase after such a big run up. 

Every time I go by one of their restaurants the lines are packed.
They seem to have three things going for them. The food is very good. The food is very affordable, with an average price at $6.84. Third, they move people through the line very quickly with an assembly line method. (Henry Ford would have liked it).  

..... and they have fun there!  I can see this stock being a 5 or 6 bagger from here. If Peter Lynch was still around running Magellan, it would be in his portfolio for sure.

So, start grabbing up some CMG shares in small bites, and grab your special dividends and your parachute and prepare to be ready to go over the cliff. It could be 8 weeks before you land on the ground. That is not me skydiving!

and so December trading begins ......       Freewilly    .... Catch you next week.