Macao, Taipa, Macau - will this "city of dreams" bring you a 2010 Casino investment?

I thought I was going to write a buttoned up nice little article on investments to profit on the thriving Macau casino business's, but it turned out to be a more complicated discussion than I first thought. Pictured to the right is the Casino Lisboa which is owned by Sociedade De Turismo E Diversoes De Macau, (Symbol HK: SJM) which is owned by Stanley Ho(Hung-Sun) and his family and trades on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Stanley has had a monopoly franchise on the Macau casino business for 40 years before anyone else arrived. All the current folks have only been there 10 years. Taipa is the smaller of the two islands in Macau Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (formerly the Portuguese colony of Macau).Craig Stephen's "This Week in China" on Marketwatch.com is an excellent source on keeping you up on events in Macau. The Chinese government holds the ultimate trump card here, like many other things in the world, so add a dose of measured risk for that fact. Also there are Hong Kong exchange stocks and US exchange stocks with varying levels of exposure to this market and the associated risk. Wynn and Las Vagas Sands have stocks on both exchanges. If you want to see the Hong Kong stock exchange it is listed at http://www.hkex.com.hk/index.htm, I will limit my discussion to the US investment stocks. WYNN (Symbol WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (Symbol LVS) which owns the largest hotel in Macau, The Venetian Hotel Resort, are safe ways to get exposure to the Macau action. Melco PBL Entertainment LTD ADS (Symbol MPEL) with the "City of Dreams" on the Cotai Strip should also be one to look at. All of us were cheering for Playboy (Symbol PLA) with their Macau location to be a boom for the company, but evidently they are playing with such a "short stack" at the poker table that Iconix Brand Group (Symbol ICON) that makes London Fog raincoats, walked away from a buyout opportunity of PLA last week. That must be one ugly Bunny balance sheet.
If you are in the market to just look at some good casino stocks and don't care about China, WMS Industries (Symbol WMS) and Penn National Gaming, Inc (symbol PENN) are both worth a look.
If anyone has comments on the other Hong Kong exchange traded stocks in Macau with more information, I invite you to comment on this blog and share with others your insight.

Season Greetings and Happy New Year,

Freewilly

What If you had to pick just one superstar stock ........

Ah Yes, If you could just pick that one stock that is a sure shot superstar. As a purveyor of stock advice you will time and again get the request from a friend that has a CD coming due that they are making 0.25% interest on and want to put it into a can't miss superstar stock. Well the last time I got this request back in 2000 I told my friend to purchase Lucent Technology which had been growing at 40% a year for multiple years in the optical electronics business and also Pfizer (Symbol PFE) which had just purchased Warner-Lambert and their superstar growth drug Lipitor. These stocks just like Tiger Woods a few months ago, appeared to be rock solid, can't miss safe bets. Well they both ended up crashing down in stock value and both were investment disasters. Tiger still has his golf talent, but faces a tough road ahead bringing his life back in order. I feel sad for his wife and children.
That brings us to today, December 19th, 2009 where the superstar question is posed again. Well based on the premise that people will continue to eat and there will continue to be more people in the world, I will pose to you an agriculture stock. Thomas Jefferson would have been happy about that. The name I will pick is Monsanto (Symbol MON). The stock is up 58% over the last 3 years, 18% net profit. Sales growth around 13% and continued earnings growth.
From an excellent group of Potash (POT), Agrium (AGU), Mosaic (MOS) and Scotts Miracle Grow (SMG), I picked out Monsanto because it also has the kicker of selling the material that goes inside all the airbags in automobiles. I can be sure people will eat and also cars will continue to collide together as we have 20 Inches of snow coming down in the northeast right now. The stock trades north of $80.00, so you will need to pick an entry spot for purchase. Maybe during a lull in February 2010, when everyone else is piling into the tech stocks.
I guess Tiger took his guidance from the "Advice Dog" over to the right, and he is an easy target right now so I will not take cheap shots at him, but golf needs him to come back and bring the magic back to the links. He should also get some corrective lenses, because he apparently is not able to see his wife Elin, who is a knockout.

So chow down and buy some Monsanto,

Freewilly

2010 - Distress in real estate continues. Will it create an investment opportunity in stocks or REIT's?

Peter Lynch, possibly the greatest fund trader of all-time with his Fidelity Magellan fund, states early in his book "One Up on Wall Street" that one needs to pass a "mirror test" first before you start to study the financial section to look at stocks. Peter said "before you buy a share of anything there are three personal issues that ought to be addressed." Well it is issue number one that I want to discuss, 1. Do you own a house? Well in 1989, when Peter wrote his book, it was a great idea and over the long term it has been a great idea. However, recently with the bank credit crunch, foreclosures due to too much leveraging of financing, and some over supply conditions, the value of real estate has gone down in the short term. Add to that pressures in the Commercial real estate market continuing in 2010 and you get some very distressed property values for those that have to sell. At the same time an opportunity is created for some of the real estate investment trust, (REIT'S), with new infusions of cash from high net worth liquid investors to make some once in a lifetime buys.
I should note at this point that banks should exhaust every option to help a homeowner stay in their house and not foreclose on them. It is devastating and could happen to anyone given a bad turn of financial circumstances, such as loosing your employment.
Anyway , some REIT's that you may want to look at to make some money are: CGM Trust: Realty Fund, (Symbol CGMRX)$20.86 NAV,which gives you a blend of real estate investments. If you like the Washington DC play on real estate you can go First Potomac Realty Trust , (Symbol FPO) $11.85 NAV or Liberty Property Trust (Symbol LRY) $31.25. If you are looking for a value play here with a good dividend my broker Vince likes Duke Realty Corp.,(Symbol DRE)as a longer term pick. If you are looking for something to invest in on the mortgage side you may like Annaly Capital Management Inc. , (Symbol NLY) $18.38. I think as tempting as it looks, it is a little early in 2010 to buy the home builders, unless we have a dramatic drop in interest rates. I keep my eye on Lennar (Symbol LEN) and Beazer Homes, (symbol BZH).

Happy Holiday portfolio shopping,

Freewilly

Baltic Dry Index and the bulk shipping business has been on the rise lately, but is there trouble ahead?

Up to a couple months ago, I did not really think much about the bulk shipping business. I had seen some folks jumping in and out of DryShips Inc. (Symbol DRYS 6.29), in the $5.50 - $7.50 trading range and it seemed to be tied mostly to the Chinese economy and how much stuff they are gobbling up.

Well, I can tell you two things about this business. When it is going well it has great margins and is extremely profitable. Second, it is extremely capital intensive to buy ships and finance them in all kinds of creative ways. So you are either doing real well or really bad, earnings wise with rapid swings.
Some companies that have performed pretty well in this space and seem to make money are Diana Shipping, (Symbol DSX), and Kirby Corp.,(Symbol KEX). Both of these have done pretty well over a one year period. Some names I would avoid are Eagle Bulk Shipping, (Symbol EGLE) and Overseas Shipping Group, (symbol OSG). OSG leads in sales revenue, but not so good on the bottom line of the balance sheet. Some prognasticators are calling for softness in the bulk business in mid-2010?

So go with whatever floats your boat, I personally like DSX.

Freewilly

Gold has taken off in price, will Silver try to catch up?

With the continuing fall of the US Dollar, Gold on the COMEX has jetted up to a friday close of $1116.80 per ounce. Yet Silver on the Comex sits at a Ho-hum $17.39 an ounce? There seems to be a disparity here and common sense seems to dictate that silver needs to rise from here. Well there is alot to look at here, including bullion and coins. I'm no millionaire and can't afford stocks like BHP Billiton or RIO Tinto the mega player miners in this space, but not pure silver plays. You can look at the Junior mining stocks on the Toronto Stock exchange but your equity risk increases dramatically with these names.
So here is my recommendation: I-Shares Silver Trust , (Symbol SLV), from the Barclay Global Fund Advisors. The price currently is $16.92. It is up YTD 59.86 % and 84.07% for 1 year. Let these guys figure out what to buy. You get a 100% Silver play and don't have to try to figure out a miner's balance sheet. If anybody has other suggestions on Silver, please I invite you to post them in comments.

Dreary, rainy weather continues in PA. and Jersey,

Freewilly

Getting near the end of the year - time for a longshot?

Well the 2009 stock trading year is rounding the bend towards a close and you are still looking for that one 3-point shot at the buzzer to win the game at the end of the year. You have dice in hand and should be playing with the houses money if you have been involved most of the year. So I thought I would roll out some speculative names for sporting purposes only. (Speculative means you can lose or make a lot of money quickly. Some luck and good timing is required. If you cannot afford to lose your money you should not speculate).
The first name I will throw out is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Symbol BCRX). BioCryst received an initial order for 10,000 courses of its intravenous flu drug peramivir, valued at $22.5 million, under a contract from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Demand will remain strong for their product that is also marketed in Japan.
Next up, Clearwire Corp. (Symbol CLWR). Their 4G highspeed
wireless internet services using WIMAX to cover your home, business , and mobile internet needs. The 2G and 3G carriers are quickly running out of spectrum with continued high growth. WIMAX makes your world one big hot-spot. Side bets on this stock are Sprint , (Symbol S), who owns 51% of Clearwire's stock and Motorola (Symbol MOT), that is cranking out with factories humming WIMAX infrastructure equipment for their towers.
Third, we need to acknowledge the boom in Gold recently. So at least let's pick one with a pretty good return on equity. ELDORADO GOLD CORP , (Symbol EGO). All I know is that all that glitters is not gold. I also know that the dollar keeps getting a haircut because of our low interest rates, making it worth less and less. So people are looking for somewhere to preserve their equity.
For full disclosure, of these stocks I currently only own Clearwire. That does not make it any better or any worse than the other picks!.

So roll the dice, 2010 is coming soon.

Freewilly

Fightin Phils Win and a fantasy baseball lineup of stocks

Well you should have had your Dicks Sporting Goods, (Symbol DKS), stock in hand from last week's blog because once the Phillies "Little Red Machine" won, (that is what Jimmy Rollins has coined them as, since they are the first NL team to repeat since those '75 REDS), Phillies fans have swarmed into DKS stores buying up shirts,hats($30.00 bucks right now for a Phillies red hat), and all merchandise RED.
I thought it would be fun to put together a fantasy baseball lineup made up of stocks based on the current Phillies positions in their lineup with speed being faster growing companies and power the steady consistant players. We will need a powerful lineup to take our revenge finally for the 1950 World Series loss to the Yankees ,(4-0 sweep no less, three consecutive one-run decision games,Fightin's scored no more than 2 runs), to Joe Dimaggio and the series MVP "Scooter" Phil Rizzuto.
The '49 and '50 Yankees had a wicked good pitching staff with Raschi, Reynolds, Lopat, Byrne, and Whitey Ford.
Well here is the lineup by position:

Batting order:

1. InterDigital Corp. (IDCC) SS
2. Adobe Systems (ADBE) CF
3. McDonalds Corp. (MCD) 2ND
4. Conoco Phillips (COP) 1ST
5. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) RF
6. Nucor (NUE) LF
7. Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) 3rd
8. SPX Corp. (SPW) C
9. Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) P

Well Harry Kalas would say that ball is out-of-here! Whitey Ashburn played
on those 1950 World Series Phillies and both their spirits will be here with us in that booth in the sky above that sees all.

Go Phils!

Freewilly

How about those Gun Ammunition stocks - is there an investment opportunity here?

Some of my gun toting relatives tell me that the ammunition business is going hot as a pistol right now and wanted me to investigate opportunities that might exist for making some money on the craze. Well there are lots of companies in this space. Corbon/Glaser-Dakota Ammo Inc., Hornady Mfg., Remington Arms Co., and PMC/Eldorado are all privately held or part owned by venture capital partnerships. The two you can invest in are Federal Cartridge Corp. which is owned by Alliant Tech Systems inc. (Symbol ATK) and Olin Corporation, (Symbol OLN). Neither of these are pure plays, and the stocks are just about even for the last 3 years.
If you really want to eye up your scope on the gun and ammo area, the stocks that are benefiting from this action and also the general rise in interest in sporting goods and hunting are the following: Big Five Sporting Goods,(Symbol BGFV), up 162% for one year, Cabella's, (Symbol CAB), up 77.6% for one year, and Dicks Sporting Goods, (Symbol DKS), up 57.5 % for one year. Smartmoney as of 10/10/09 rates BGFV and DKS as a "moderate buy" and CAB as a "hold" right now. Bass Pro Shops, as a side note, does not appear to trade on an exchange and should probably take their company public.
One other thought may be to buy Sturm Ruger, (Symbol RGR), the firearms manufacturer that trades for around $12-13 a share. This stock is up 81.5% over the last year. Financials look pretty good.

Happy Shooting,

Freewilly

Investing in the old 5 & 10 store concept - now inflated to $1 dollar

This is a picture of Sines 5 & 10 cents store in downtown Quakertown, Pa. that was in our Pennsylvania magazine July/August issue. They are fine example of a long time retail concept of putting a whole fun store together of inexpensive items. Woolworth's and Ben Franklin stores are my personal favorites. So I thought in these hard times with 10% unemployment and no Olympics coming to Chicago, that I would see how these stores were doing from an investment standpoint.
The company doing the best with just tripling earnings is Dollar General Stores. 8300 stores.The only problem is they are owned by privately held KKR Kohlberg Kravis, & Roberts. You can purchase on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange, (symbol KKR) for $8.96 cents a share. That symbol represents a 30% interest in KKR and its whole porfolfio of 49 companies, so that is pretty diluted ownership of the "dollar store".
Over a three year period your best bet would have been to own Dollar Tree , (symbol DLTR). It has been up 47% over that period. This one would be the best long term investment for an IRA account. 99 Cents stores , (symbol NDN) , would have had you up 9.6% over the last 3 years. Family Dollar Stores , (symbol FDO), is down <-3.9%> over the last three years, but that was mostly because of a last quarter miss on earnings and downdraft of the stock. This investment may be the best from a value purchase standpoint, with decent earnings per share, ($2.02 in 2009/$2.26 in 2010 forecast) and pretty good growth , 12-13% projected sales growth. So if your not spending your $1.00 on a lottery ticket, go and buy something at your local 5 & 10 store . One worth a visit is the Jolly Trolley store, in sunny Dushore, PA. It is at the corner where the only stop light exist in Sullivan County, PA.

Happy shopping,

Freewilly

The late Mitch Hedberg tribute on the Stockpicker blog

Welcome to the first tribute to Mitch Hedberg, my favorite late comedian. If Mitch were here , I think he would give us something like this.
" Welcome to my first late Mitch Hedberg tribute on the Stockpicker blog. We will have fun. I don't know why people call me "late", because I arrived here in heaven "early". There were no escalators or stairs. Hedberg party of one. Sir you have arrived too "early". We are not ready for you yet. Please stand aside over by the fire exit. Wow. I do not want anything to do with fire at this stage in my travels. I will stand over here quietly and have one of these delicious Cinnamon rolls. They are a tasty treat.
"While I wait, I will tell you what happened when I called a stock broker. He told me I should buy something that I can relate to. Well me and my friends after a night of drinking ,drive over to a , Jack in the Box (symbol JACK). We pull in to the drive thru and start talking to the little red post with the person's voice inside of it. Two words that you will need to remember to say, no matter how drunk you are, without laughing. "Bonus Jack". This is the code word. You pull up to the window and the young lady will hand you a big red & white bag. It is delicious because you have the munchies. You have no idea what you are really eating.
Then we will drive over to Micky D's , that's right McDonald's (symbol MCD). Beware of the clown dude there, he is very scary. We will buy mouth watering french fries with salt. The fries box is deceptive. You will be fooled. You see the gold and white stripes on the inside of the fries holder and think you have more fries then are really there. Bummer. You gave away all your fries. You will need to buy more. These companies must have great returns on equity, because twice we have been been duped. Hey wait, we will buy their stock, and get our money back. Thank you for coming to my late Mitch Hedberg tribute on the Stockpicker blog. It was fun to be the guest host. I think I will sit down for a while now, till it is my turn to enter heaven."

Mitch, thank you for coming on the blog. You are the best. Thank you for the great food stock
picks.

Freewilly

Transport stocks have bottomed and make a turn

My dad was a bus driver. He worked for Public Service in New Jersey back in the
Fifties driving Pennsauken to Camden to Philadelphia. He passed away when I was very young. But I can remember when I was five, he pulled the bus into our driveway. To me it looked like the size of an aircraft carrier,very impressive. My kudo's go out to all the bus drivers out there, (especially my buddy "Coop" , John Cooper devout Eagles fan), that turn that big round steering wheel around racking their back and maneuvering these mighty vehicles around in city traffic.
Anyway this is my segue over to discussing the trucking transport stocks and a shipping stock. I have been tracking YRC Worldwide (symbol YRCW), the old Yellow Freight, in my watch list forever, to see if there was any life in the sector. I was going to recommend it last week at $2.50 but I got busy and needed the above Public Service bus postcard image scanned from my collection and never got around to blogging the post. Well the stock shot up last week 46% to $3.66 a share. (the stock traders lament, the one that got away). Well you can probably still buy it. I would wait till though till after options expiration the third Friday in October.
Some other names to look at in the transports would be Knight Transportation, (Symbol KNX), DryShips (Symbol DRYS), and J.B. Hunt Transport Services, (Symbol JBHT). I have traded DryShips between the $5-7 price range and this was a stock that traded as high as $116.00 share. It is a traders stock to move in and out of.

Happy trading. Be careful with October coming!

Freewilly

Divine calculations and stock picking

I was watching a rerun of the movie the DaVinci code last week with all its many puzzles and calculations that they go through to get to what appears to be the truth. Well it of course made me think about how many times I had bought stocks because it just felt right at the time when the "stars of the market", kinda of the place where everything sat at that moment frozen in time, just seemed to click into alignment to make a certain purchasing decision.
Well , even though Snagglepuss told me to exit stage left, which I did, going to many cash positions, I still have been having these "feelings" about the compelling value of some of the tech stocks here the last couple of weeks. They have done a great job managing their inventories this time around in recession and could turn some earnings around to the bottom line very quickly. These companies are also are showing respectable revenue growth and have good quick ratios (%'s of assets to liabilities on the balance sheet).
So I followed my imaginary "Rose line" and it took me to AT&T Inc. (symbol T). It has a a 6.3 % dividend and plenty of cash to back it up. Current ratio is 1.6 to 1. That beats a half percent at best on sitting cash.
My second pick was to add a high tech/ higher beta tech stock to the IRA account
to add some horsepower to bring life back from the Oct-2007 to June 2009 downside debacle.
That stock is Marvel Technology (symbol MRVL). It has a lot of interesting technologies going forward. It has a 3:1 current ratio. I was lucky enough to buy it two days in front of earnings and guidance, which were good, at 14.25 and it is now up near 15.75 on the announcements. They reported the same day as Dell , so it generated some "daily tech interest".
With that I will warn you that on review in the past I have lost more money in speculative technology stocks than in any other investment category during the old"dot.com" days. These two are not speculative investments. Also other disclaimers, I do not have a series 7 license
and am not a professional investment advisor. Just a guy following my "Rose line" where it leads me.

Sincerest regards,

Freewilly

Exit - Stage Left - Compliments of Snagglepuss - some stockmarket advice

If you remember SnagglePuss , the Pink Lion from 1959

who appeared on the old "The Quick Draw McGraw show" and "The Yogi Bear show" he had a few famous lines he always used.

"Heavens to Murgatroyd" was among the catch phrases. The one

that the lion would use when he saw trouble brewing was "Exit, Stage Left" and he would make a fast escape from the tiny hunter "Major Minor", and dart off out of the way of trouble.

Well the point of all this is that this market has come a long way without any kind of major

correction. It would behoove you to exit stage right (or left )and take some profits (or tax losses) and move a good portion into cash for this September- October time frame. The market, even in good times ,will have issues in October, and in bad times with revenue growth being questionable and unemployment staying even or getting worse , it is a good time to be very risk adverse.

There will always being another stock value coming along later. You just need to have patience.

Exit , Stage Right......

Freewilly

Little surprises, and an inflection point with viewing quarterly earnings

Yes, Zooey Deschanel is guilty of eating frozen yogurt. Or maybe she has that surprised look on her face because she, like me, had sold her Garmin (GRMN) stock at a 21% gain, had the current quarter earnings come in as predicted down 33% , and revenues down 27% YOY (year over year) and promptly watch the stock go up 6 points on the news!#$%$?????
Why you ask? because the reality of their current business for the quarter now does not seem to matter to wall street. We have hit an inflection point. Business Wire by the way reported this as, and I quote, " Improved results and sequential growth" because Garmin did not perform as bad as the most dire preditions. So we have made a turn in the road where if the underlying company is giving future guidance as good, the current results are simply disregarded.
If you had instead invested in one of the retailers that Zooey may shop at , Philadelphia based retailer Urban Outfitters, (URBN) , according to my watch list you would be up a cool 68% plus this year. They sell hip clothes to people who don't want to look like they just
got their wardrobe at Walmart. (I am certainly no fashion statement). Likewise the 6 month chart of stazy retailer Aeropostele Inc, (ARO), is up 85% with the retailing industry in the doldrums. Go figure?

Have a good weekend. Weather prediction: it will be 96 degrees on Monday.

Freewilly

Beware the "Ides of August" - there are just too many people who are too bullish right now

It really scares me when I hear whole panels of people on the finance shows and they are all so bullish after such a run-up we had in the month of July. There is no way that this thing is going straight up from here. it just doesn't work that way. So patience is the watch word and if you have taken profits here keep them on the sidelines for now.
There are a few technology stocks here that you can keep in mind that have very good balance sheets. Two semi-conductor stocks that have 3:1 Asset to debt ratios. Those are Marvell Technology, (MRVL), and Triquint Semiconductor , Inc. ,(TQNT). I do not own either of these yet but would be interested after the correction.,
My favorite stock in the technology sector and one that I do own is InterDigital , (IDCC) , that is a company I consider to be a baby Qualcomm in the 3G cellular space. They own 3000 patents in the 3G technology and are very well positioned for the transition in cellular phone technology for voice and data. The proliferation of the Apple I-Phones and the RIM Blackberry's sucking up bandwidth with video and Internet web browsing are taxing the current cellular systems and changes will need to be made quickly to keep up with customer demand.

So. for the short term , keep your powder dry and raise some cash for the sidelines.

Best Regards,

freewilly

The Flyers method - mucking and grinding and fighting for gains

Like Dave Schultz and Bobby Clarke of the Philadelphia Flyers sometimes you just need to dump the puck in and then work hard, work hard to make something happen.

I dumped in today and sold some shares of good companies with good balance sheets that had 18-20 % gains , (GRMN) Garmin and (ADM) ArcherDanielsMidland. Sometimes, just like in hockey , you need to take shorter shifts, to get all four lines on the ice and keep everyone fresh. It just seemed like both issues were fully valued here.

I picked up some value stocks to plug in with defensive positions. I am not as bullish here as most of the soothsayers. I do not see a fast recovery at all. (BMY )Bristol Myers Squibb has a 6.2 % dividend yield, so you get paid to wait for a stock gain. They are also in a product partnership with Gilead Sciences , (GILD).

Foster Wheeler AG, (FWLT), a play on rebuilding infrastructure in heavy construction and engineeering. Both stocks are value plays that are lower beta volitility than Garmin and ADM. We'll see if we can get a quick goal here if the puck bounces right! These activities are in an IRA retirement account, so are a little bit more conservative picks.

Thanks,

freewilly

Market Update -7/12 or "Dogs marching up a hill"

I have always loved this picture from the web and needed to work it into a blog post. These dogs are working so very hard to get up the hill and seem to be on a mission. I am not sure where they are going. ?

Well the picture is like the current stock market here in the US (as of 7/10). You can have the best quality stocks in your portfolio and be working very hard to improve your positions , but you really don't know where it is going over the last 6 weeks or the next six. I guess we should have all "sold in May and went away." I say every year that "were not going to get fooled again" to quote The Who, but we are probably more fully invested at this time in stocks versus cash than we should be. Hunker down time.

Some things you can do right now is to re buy positions where you have an unrealized capital losses and then sell your original position in 31 or 32 days. You can lock in tax losses for 2009 and sometimes get a little uplift in the stock price. You can also re balance the diversification of your portfolio by buying and selling like priced stocks in different sectors.

I think what we need here right now is for the 30 year interest rates for mortgages to be cut down to the 4 % to get all this debt in the system refinanced and get the housing market moving again.

We also need stimulus grants to small businesses to get them moving again, because they create 60 to 80 % of the new jobs in the US.

We also need to put back in place the "uptick" rule for shorts in the market so that these super "bear" hedge funds with their pools of money cannot continue to strafe good stocks with earnings and decimate them.

Enjoy your week. .............(If you are an employer, hire somebody and put them to work on a project to create new growth at your company.)

Freewilly

Summer Time - some pharma stocks to look at with a 2 year time horizon

Dendreon Corp., (Symbol DNDN), located in Seattle, Washington, trading around $24.50 is up today in a summer doldrums market. One analyst has moved the target price to $36.00 and on CNBC they off-handedly threw out a $49 target handle projected on the stock. Story here is a big cancer breakthrough in prostate cancer treatment.

Another stock to keep an eye on as we go into the next flu season is Gilead Sciences Inc., (Symbol GILD). Sometimes after a big flu threat year like with the swine flu the following year is even worse. This Forest City, Ca. company is very well positioned for medical solutions in this area. The stock trades at $45.36 today. (7/6) Last quarter earnings were growing at 24 % plus.

Either of these stocks could also be targets for buyout from the "bigger fish" in the pharma area. As always buy in with smaller positions and average in with your purchases.

Happy hunting, P.S. disclaimers. I have 37 years of personal trading experience, (and I have had many bumps and bruises along the way), but no degrees in finance or Series 7 licencing. These are just observations based on my experience.

Thanks,

Freewilly

What about that 1953 Plymouth Cranbrook in my profile?

Some folks have asked about why do I have a picture of a 1953 Plymouth Cranbrook on my profile. Well that was my first car that I ever owned. My neighbor Jim Thoms fixed it up and gave it to me for free because I only had enough money to pay for the car insurance in New Jersey. My car even had a name , the "Arnold" , named of course after Arnold Ziffel that used to be the neighbors family pig on the TV show "Green Acres". (That song from the show is still imprinted in my brain). Anyway I still have the stick shift for that car up in my drawer because someone sawed if off when we were down the jersey shore. The Cranbrook with its 218 cubic inch flat head "6" engine had a 3 speed shifter on the column and I had to drive home using the stub of the shifter only. The Arnold machine was all Silver and then had a Black roof, hood, and trunk like a limousine. I can tell you that the "Arnold" was like honey , attracting the young lass's. Certified babe magnet. We also snuck-in once 4 kids into the Pennsauken Drive-in, in the trunk of the Plymouth ,with plenty of room to spare. I also picked up a copy on eBay of the original sales brochure for the 1953 Plymouth series with the Cranbrook and Cambridge shown. I will post it sometime.

Best regards,

Freewilly

Michael - by the numbers

Since this is a financial and music blog I thought it only appropriate to post Michael's incredible stats. The loss of Michael and Farrah Fawcett, two icons of our youth, makes you sit back and think that you must be ancient!

*******************************************************

Here they are:

750 Million Albums

Michael Jackson is the third biggest selling pop act of all time after The Beatles, and Elvis. His 1982 album "Thriller" is thought to be the biggest selling album EVER , selling over 65 Million copies according to the Guinness book of World records.

Michael Jackson's earnings from record sales, tours, merchandise and other business ventures are estimated to have succeeded $700 Million dollars in his 40 year recording career.

Since the early 1980's his recordings have generated more than $300 Million in royalties.

In 1985 , Jackson paid $47.5 Million for a catalog of 4,000 songs including 200 Beatles songs.

By 2005, the catalog now co-owned by Sony , was worth $500 Million dollars. Paul McCartney is believed to have originally tipped him off to the financial benefits of owning music catalogues.

In 1987, Michael purchased 2800 acres northwest of Santa Barbara CA. for $14.6 Million and named it "Neverland" , after the imaginary land in J M Barrie's novel Peter Pan. By 2006 it cost him $4 Million dollars a year to operate.

Michael won 13 Grammy Awards and many music video awards.

Michael was never found guilty of any of the charges against him.

Best Regards,

Freewilly

Wilson Family Reunion June 28th, 2009 - Sunday

Wilson Family Reunion - June 28th, 2009 Sunday

Cherry Hill, N.J.

Information or directions call Howard Wilson or David Wilson.

On the right side is a picture from the 6/28/2009 party. Weather was sunny and beautiful and we had a fun time of eating, drinking and swapping Wilson and Reader family stories.

Freewilly

Is there a best month of the year to invest in the market?

It seems that the market always is going down through the first 3 weeks of October, which ends on the third Friday which is "triple witching" options expiration's. (Note the Jack-O-Lantern).
The big crash of 1987 was on Oct. 19th if you will note. So right after "triple witching" is probably a good time to jump in if you are a market timer. Many years have December rallies and also January is the beginning of a new year and people are full of optimism and new year's resolutions, including the stock analyst at the major firms. They need to prognosticate the big "new winners" for the coming year.
Also on the monthly front is the famous "Sell in May and go away". The thinking is that everyone on Wall street is taking their vacations and spending all that money they made during the beginning of the year. They do not want to leave open positions while they are on the beach and not paying attention to the market. So probably not a bad month to lower some of your stock positions and raise some cash.

Best Regards,

Freewilly

Memorial to the Great ones - Louis Rukeyser

No Financial blog can begin without mentioning the greatest influence in my stock trading life and without acknowledging Louis Rukeyser and the PBS version of "Wall Street Week" , the longest continuous running financial show in history.

His on-going line of guest on the show included Peter Lynch, Frank Capiello, Julius Westheimer, Mario Gabelli, Gail Dudak, Marty Zweig, Eddie Brown, Sir John Templeton and a lineup of many giants of the industry.

Thank you Lou, for starting the concept of finance being discussed on TV. Thanks for all the great stuff you brought to our living room.

Freewilly

Some basics to keep you out of trouble

Rule #1. Never buy a stock that is priced under $5.00. Most mutual funds have rules in their charters that do not allow them to purchase stocks under $5.00. It is very tempting to want to buy these shares and there is the occasional exception in this year 2009. (F,THC,UIS,ESLR).

Rule#2. If you trade a stock twice , and have gains both times, do not go back to the well and buy it a third time. This rule was put into place after some nosedive trade experiences with Krispy Kreme Donuts, (KKD), and Sirius Satellite Radio, (SIRI). They took me for a ride down a slippery slope on the third trade after some nice gains.

Rule#3. Only buy stocks that have earnings above $0.10 per share annually. This will keep you out of a lot of bad places.

Rule#4. Try to buy companies that are not loaded down with debt, or even better yet have zero debt.

These are a few to start out with that will keep you out of 80% of the trouble you can find.

Sincerest Regards,

Freewilly